Stock Market seems volatile

[PanthersATL]

19 hours ago, Happy Panther said:

Check your portfolio if you haven't this afternoon.

Nah, not if you're in for the long haul (buy and hold).

Lots and lots of folks who sold on the dip in March-April 2020 lost a lot when things bounced back to their previous levels shortly thereafter.

Not saying that today is a similar situation - just that you shouldn't make investment decisions based on an individual day of activity.

[Happy Panther]

1 hour ago, PanthersATL said:

Nah, not if you're in for the long haul (buy and hold).

Lots and lots of folks who sold on the dip in March-April 2020 lost a lot when things bounced back to their previous levels shortly thereafter.

Not saying that today is a similar situation - just that you shouldn't make investment decisions based on an individual day of activity.

True. Except for the fact that when there are big moves it could be a good opportunity to look at individual stocks. I have two stocks down 10%+ today.

As for your second paragraph I think this is the biggest mistake rookie investors make. Selling a dip should be the last option behind holding and buying.

[Paa Langfart]

2 hours ago, Happy Panther said:

True. Except for the fact that when there are big moves it could be a good opportunity to look at individual stocks. I have two stocks down 10%+ today.

As for your second paragraph I think this is the biggest mistake rookie investors make. Selling a dip should be the last option behind holding and buying.

I remember in the 1987 crash my g f now wife wanted to sell all her PepsiCo stock which was several hundred shares.  I convinced  her not to and since then it has split several times, spun off Yum and Yu mChina (with hundreds of shares for free) and paid great dividends through the years and the share price is about 6x what it was then.

 

[Happy Panther]

Bought some CHWY

[PanthersATL]

4 hours ago, Happy Panther said:

when there are big moves it could be a good opportunity to look at individual stocks.

some would say going with funds is safer than individual stocks, due to (hopefully) less overall volatility.

they're not as sexy in terms of return vs an individual stock (see the article earlier today about how funds missed out on Tesla's big returns) -- but you give up giant returns in exchange for a smoother curve

[CRA]

any tech you guys like with it getting hammered of late? or still more hammering to be done? 

 

[Happy Panther]

17 hours ago, PanthersATL said:

some would say going with funds is safer than individual stocks, due to (hopefully) less overall volatility.

they're not as sexy in terms of return vs an individual stock (see the article earlier today about how funds missed out on Tesla's big returns) -- but you give up giant returns in exchange for a smoother curve

So I have half my money with RBC and the rest I manage. RBC is all funds and attempts to beat the market. What I manage is all individual stocks and munis, What I manage is 3x the market. So if RBC goes up $1 mine goes up $3.

It is easier to manage taxes within what I manage.

[Happy Panther]

2 hours ago, CRA said:

any tech you guys like with it getting hammered of late? or still more hammering to be done? 

 

I would bet on more hammering but I don't think there is much of a bubble anymore.

Here is one in my portfolio I may buy more of. Also never take my advice.

[PanthersATL]

3 hours ago, CRA said:

any tech you guys like with it getting hammered of late? or still more hammering to be done? 

 

Tech is temporarily being hit hard.

Biggest issue is which tech are you in: 

• if it's something subscription-based (like Netflix), then their problem is that there is a limited number of people in the world who will subscribe to the service.  What happens once they have 100% of an audience? The only way to make more money is raise rates, cut spending, add advertising, sell info, etc.
• if it's something service-based, like any of the infrastucture stuff (this includes AWS) - then there's always going to be demand. they'll still make money as more and more services are brought online and/or utilized
• e-commerce is questionable. Consumables (food, etc) that need to be replaced regularly will only go so far until less-expensive options become prevalent.  Costco is a glorified grocery store, and people will still need/want food/paper-goods/wine.  It's the more frivolous expenditures that are likely to be cut.  TVs, electronics....

Most of Apple's $ comes from App Store stuff.  People may not feel like buying the next new iPhone this year, which may cut into Apple's hardware sales number.  But they'll still make money on the recurring revenue streams.

(disclaimer: internet chat board messages related to financial forecasts and advice may or may not contain actual/helpful/accurate information. probably not.)

[PanthersATL]

47 minutes ago, Happy Panther said:

RBC is all funds and attempts to beat the market. What I manage is all individual stocks and munis, What I manage is 3x the market. So if RBC goes up $1 mine goes up $3.

There's a push in financial news this past month+ (well, more so than normal) that the best way to balance a market like we're seeing is to ensure you have a relatively strong passive income stream from dividend-paying stocks.

AT&T used to be fantastic with a ~5-6% yield (it's now closer to 2% due to recent shenanigans).

With some reasonable planning, it wouldn't be too difficult for the average investor to get anywhere from $50-$100/month* in dividend payouts (which could then be used to either reinvest or make new purchases).  [*YMMV on the monthly amounts, figures listed here for info-purposes only]

There are plenty of sources online that identify strong dividend-paying stocks that you can own for payouts in each month of the year (rather than owning a bunch that payout the same quarter schedule), which would also help with diversification and money flow.   Motley Fool, Marketwatch/CNBC, Kiplinger's are three that seem to be reasonably okay in what they write about.

Yes, dividends aren't sexy vs buying/selling stocks and cashing on their sale price. But if you're able to make an extra $1200/year (or more, depending on how you get there) without having to pay too much attention to daily trends -- it's something to consider

(see earlier disclaimer about whether internet chat boards' free investment advice is valid or not)

[LinvilleGorge]

48 minutes ago, PanthersATL said:

Tech is temporarily being hit hard.

Biggest issue is which tech are you in: 

• if it's something subscription-based (like Netflix), then their problem is that there is a limited number of people in the world who will subscribe to the service.  What happens once they have 100% of an audience? The only way to make more money is raise rates, cut spending, add advertising, sell info, etc.

I see people say this as if they're making a solid point but then I realize that Netflix has less than 3% of the world's population as subscribers and two thirds of those are outside of the U.S. They're in absolutely no danger of running out of potential new customers, their biggest threat by far is increased competition in the streaming market.

[Davidson Deac II]

Regarding tech, I am considering Palo Alto, but haven't done much research regarding the fundamentals.  

[PanthersATL]

2 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I see people say this as if they're making a solid point but then I realize that Netflix has less than 3% of the world's population as subscribers and two thirds of those are outside of the U.S. They're in absolutely no danger of running out of potential new customers, their biggest threat by far is increased competition in the streaming market.

I get what you're saying, but the 3% figure is misleading as it doesn't take into account underage or those who are otherwise unable to subscribe/use a streaming service.   Netflix has ~220m paid subscribers globally.

What I'm saying is that once you have a subscriber, the only way to get MORE money from that account that's already on the hook is to raise rates, advertise, or cut costs.  Otherwise you're in a constant battle of user churn - folks who sign up for a month, binge everything, then leave for a year. Ain't no money in that setup, and where Netflix could find themselves in trouble.   And Facebook has already run into that wall as well, in terms of increasing their userbase.

And the same holds true for any of the tech companies that aren't diversified in their offerings or are too reliant on a single type of income stream.

Tech isn't going away, which is good. Question is, which horse are you willing to ride on?

 

 

Edited May 6, 2022 by PanthersATL

[CRA]

Netflix IMO is basically Yahoo.  They were basically the opening king and the lone guy at the party.  Then everyone else comes along and figures it out and often better. 

Everyone is taking their content back from Netflix and doing it themselves.  I don't think Netflix is going to crumble but I think their best days are over.  

I'd rather throw money at Disney and let it sit for 20 years than Netflix.