To those wanting a "Top 10" quarterback...

[Harbingers]

14 minutes ago, Varking said:

It’s not just about Super Bowls. It’s about being in the running for playoffs and Super Bowls every year. Outside of Tom Brady it’s mostly been top 3 round QBs in the running for playoffs every year. I don’t want one super bowl run and then we become poo again for 7 years. I want to win consistently. 

I don't disagree. The point of the post is Top 10 defense leads to way more playoffs and Super Bowl wins than a top 10 or first round quarterback.

[Varking]

1 minute ago, philit99 said:

It is the hot wife syndrome. You want it cause everyone else wants it knowing that life will suck, but at least you can tell your friends look at my hot wife, (while you trying to save every penny before she spends it, finding meals on your on, and doing your own laundry). We think a Heisman QB will win a Super Bowl, it usually creates a divide and we win nothing. I’ll take that top 5 defense every time. It may not be as sexy, but it gets the laundry and the meals done.

Every time we put a top defense together over the last ten years they were not a top ten defense the following year. It’s hard to keep many great players. Part of the reason the Patriots won so much with Brady is he never demanded market value for himself which slowed them to invest elsewhere for many years. They lucked out. Most players want their money and I don’t blame them. 

[LinvilleGorge]

7 minutes ago, Harbingers said:

Removing data from a set leads to a false answer 100/100% of the time.

Allowing one data point among many to massively skew your results means you don't understand how to interpret data.

[Harbingers]

5 minutes ago, stbugs said:

Do we really have to do this again? I love the cutoff at 2000 since Aikman and Elway won 5 of the 10 in the 90s and that doesn’t count Young who without the USFL likely goes number 1.

The post this was quoting cut off at 2000 in the other thread, but I did a complete draft to win number dating back to the beginning of the Super Bowl era. 99.89 is not that much of a jump over 99.95(7) in overall QB round one draft picks.

 

[Varking]

1 minute ago, Harbingers said:

I don't disagree. The point of the post is Top 10 defense leads to way more playoffs and Super Bowl wins than a top 10 or first round quarterback.

A top 10 defense that usually features many first rounders compared to one QB being taken top ten to an awful team? That’s the comparison? 

[stbugs]

21 minutes ago, GOOGLE JIM BOB COOTER said:

so half were won by first round quarterbacks and half won by all other quarterbacks (this number being heavily affected by a very obvious outlier in tom brady)? this is a data point in favor of drafting a qb in the first round. quarterbacks drafted after round one is a much deeper pool to pull from and they’re still splitting super bowls with 1st round quarterbacks.

It’s a bizarre argument to make. Since 1990:

16 SBs won by 1st round picks

6 SBs won by Brady

2 SBs won by backups of 1st round picks

2 SBs won by guys taken in the first two picks of the 2nd round

4 SBs won by every other QB taken pick 34 or later

We keep going through this and it’s sill to even discuss because it lumps in 4 first overall QBs taken in the last 5 years. Is it really good to evaluate QBs taken 1st overall that have played 1, 2 and 3 years when QBs like Elway and Manning won much later in their careers?

 

[Harbingers]

4 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Allowing one data point among many to massively skew your results means you don't understand how to interpret data.

This isn't a projection, its raw facts, its not open for interpretation. Removing 1 from 99 does not make that 99 = 100. You claim 6 out of 21 is an outlier, it is not, unless you want to pretend 6 super bowls didn't happen. Which if you want to more power too you. I still know Cotchery caught it, but at the end of the day its simply not true.

[stbugs]

3 minutes ago, Harbingers said:

The post this was quoting cut off at 2000 in the other thread, but I did a complete draft to win number dating back to the beginning of the Super Bowl era. 99.89 is not that much of a jump over 99.95(7) in overall QB round one draft picks.

 

Without taking anything else into account. 16 of the the past 24 non Brady SBs have been won by 1st round picks. 8 of those 16 were number one overall. Again that doesn’t include first rounders teeing their teams up for byes that don’t get credit even if they were MVP candidates getting hurt after 13/14 games.

Sorry, but you can’t convince me that 1st round QBs aren’t helping teams win SBs.

[LinvilleGorge]

6 minutes ago, Harbingers said:

This isn't a projection, its raw facts, its not open for interpretation. Removing 1 from 99 does not make that 99 = 100. You claim 6 out of 21 is an outlier, it is not, unless you want to pretend 6 super bowls didn't happen. Which if you want to more power too you. I still know Cotchery caught it, but at the end of the day its simply not true.

Except that it's actually very much up for interpretation and you interpreted it yourself to support the conclusion you'd already arrived at.

[Mr. Scot]

I hate getting caught up in this round, that position, overall spot discussions.

Look, if you think the guy is the right one for your offense, take him. If not, don't. .

If you overthink it, there's a pretty good chance you're gonna get it wrong

[Shotgun]

11 minutes ago, Harbingers said:

This isn't a projection, its raw facts, its not open for interpretation. Removing 1 from 99 does not make that 99 = 100. You claim 6 out of 21 is an outlier, it is not, unless you want to pretend 6 super bowls didn't happen. Which if you want to more power too you. I still know Cotchery caught it, but at the end of the day its simply not true.

You should list all the panthers qbs in franchise history by draft position and success level. We will see if we can come to some kind of conclusion. 

[LinvilleGorge]

Just now, Mr. Scot said:

I hate getting caught up in this round, that position, overall spot discussions.

Look, if you think the guy is the right one for your offense, take him. If not, don't. .

If you overthink it, there's a pretty good chance you're gonna get it wrong

This. If you don't have a franchise QB and you think there's a franchise QB available, draft him. Pretty much that simple.

[stbugs]

48 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Moral of the story have at minimum a top 10 defense. A top 10 offense and when it comes to a franchise quarterback draft smart, NOT EARLY. Cause that quarterback you want in the first round, in the top 10? Has a 99.7% chance in modern football of going their entire career without winning a Super Bowl. And that first rounder? Only marginally better at 99.5%.

This is the type of post that shows you are manipulating numbers that aren’t there.

How can more than half the SBs in the past 30 years be won by first round picks and yet somehow it’s 99.5% of first round QBs not win a SB?

60s first round QBs in the 2000s. I’m going to drop off 12 of them taken in the last 3 years because we are nowhere near saying Allen, Murray, Burrow and Jackson won’t win one. So out of the 48 first round QBs who’ve played at least 3 full seasons, 6 won a SB (Wentz started 13 of 13 games to get the 1 seed, gotta give him credit) and 4 lost in the SB. 6 of 48 <> 0.5%.

That’s pretty good odds when history shows us that 50% of 1st rounders bust anyway. 20% of 1st round QBs appear to make or win the SB and in all cases they were a key contributor not just a backup on a Tom Brady team. Considering that Tom himself captured 6 of 20 SBs, 1st round QBs seem to do pretty well.

[Harbingers]

Just now, stbugs said:

Without taking anything else into account. 16 of the the past 24 non Brady SBs have been won by 1st round picks. 8 of those 16 were number one overall. Again that doesn’t include first rounders teeing their teams up for byes that don’t get credit even if they were MVP candidates getting hurt after 13/14 games.

Sorry, but you can’t convince me that 1st round QBs aren’t helping teams win SBs.

7 top 10's out of the 65 picked since 1990 have won Superbowls. 89.24% of those picks didn't win a Super Bowl.

 

.