Week 16 cheat sheet: Who to pull for and why

[MHS831]

Tanker's edition

For those of us who have visions of QBs dancing in our heads, deep down inside we are dreading the expected end of season, “Rivera Run” a process where we dominate the opposition’s bench in route to a win streak that only ends in defeat in late April.  So here is how that is playing out:

Look for New Orleans to clinch the division for our Christmas present, securing a win vs. the Vikings.  This could have week 17 implications, as is the New Year’s tradition in Carolina.  I will examine probable scenarios in a bit.  This is important because we do not want to raise the “We beat the Saints’ Bench” banner this year.

Atlanta (4-10)  will probably get a 40-point halftime lead in this matchup vs the 2019 come back kids, the Chiefs.  KC is 2 games ahead of the Steelers and the Bills, but has defeated the Bills this season, so it is a 2-horse race for the bye.  Pittsburgh has lost 3 in a row, and the nose dive is likely to continue unless they get out of the funk they are in in dramatic fashion.  The Bengals?  Come on man.  They play Indy and Cleveland-two 10-win teams, this week and next.  All that to say this:  KC has a reason to play hard this week—but if they watch score boards, they could empty the bench in the second half.

Carolina (4-10) has actually played well over the past two weeks, losing both games in respectable fashion.  Washington is a far worse team than Green Bay, and Haskins is not the same as Rogers, I heard.   Carolina will not want to face the Washington pass rush, and Washington will keep it on the ground.  Washington has reason to win this game, narrowly holding onto the NFC east lead.  Tankers, this is a winnable game that could come down to who runs it the best and how many interceptions Haskins throws.  However, I see Haskins having a really good game.  Panthers are 2 point dogs on the road, which means this is a coin toss.

Cincinnati (3-10-1) is a half a game ahead of the Panthers in the Tankathon, but they play the pathetic Houston Texans (4-10).  This is a win-win for the Panthers, unless they tie.  If Cincy wins and the Panthers lose, the Panthers move ahead of the Bengals into #3.  If Houston wins, they go to 5-10 with one to play, dropping out of a tie with the Panthers.  Yes, the Panthers have a .020 lead on them in the “strength of schedule” comparison, but the Texans play the 3-10-1 Bengals this week and the Panthers play a team with twice as many wins this week and the Saints next week.  If they both lose or win, Houston could edge the Panthers in that area based on math.   So a Bengals win is preferable—only if we lose out. 

Philadelphia (4-9-1) is a half-game ahead of the Panthers in the Tank standings, and they have a favorable schedule from the Panthers’ perspective.  They are road favorites in Dallas (-1.5) and then end the season against Washington in a game that could determine a playoff berth.  It is the NFC East, so all bets are off—after beating the Saints and playing the Cards fairly close, we need another Eagle win to keep them from stepping in front of us on draft day.

Of course, if the Panthers win, games that feature the Lions, Cowboys, Niners, Chargers, Broncos, and Giants come into play.  So technically, the Panthers range is 3-13—unless they win 2 games.

Back to New Orleans:  The Saints have a 1-game lead for the #2 spot in the NFC over the Rams and Bucs (both 9-5)  and are tied with the Seahawks (10-4).  The Saints trail the Packers by one game for the first round bye, but the Packers won the head-to-head vs. New Orleans, so that is probably a mute point, so the focus here should be on the Rams-Seahawks game.  If Seattle wins, no problem; The Saints would be playing for a #2 seed vs. a #3 seed vs. the Panthers week 17.  If the Rams win, the Seahawks, who end with a 4pm game in San Fran, could still tie the Saints if the Panthers defeat the Saints—but by the then, the tie-breaker would have been determined, and a Saints loss and a Seahawks win week 17 may not have significance.  The Rams, however, would then be 10-5 (vs. New Orleans 11-4) with a 4pm game in Arizona.  Their record vs. the NFC is identical to the Saints, so I am not sure how deep the tie breaker would go.

The best case scenario for this is for the Seahawks to beat the Rams.  That would make the Hawks and Saints both 11-4 going into week 17.  However, the tie breaker seems likely to favor the Saints if the Rams win, but I am not close to being certain about that. 

So essentially, the Saints would be playing for the difference between a #2 and #3 seed if they beat Minnesota.

If they lose to the Vikings and the Bucs win, they would be tied with the Bucs (with a tiebreaker advantage) going into week 17.

So what would we really like to see happen?

 

• ·        The Packers lose to the Titans (possible—a night game in Green Bay on Dec 27?  The run game may give the Titans and advantage—especially if windy)
• ·        The Seahawks beat the Rams (possible to probable)
• ·        The Washington team beats the Panthers (very possible)
• ·        The Vikings beat the Saints (unlikely)
• ·        The Bengals beat the Texans (very possible)
• ·        The Falcons beat the Chiefs (unlikely)

I have examined this quite carefully, but I may have made a miscalculation or forgotten something or someone.  Please pile on if you see something.  Basically, it seems as if the Saints will be playing for the #2 seed vs. the #3 seed in the playoffs week 17-if that.

[Mr. Scot]

The Vikings have been something of an Achilles Heel for the Saints in recent years.

[MHS831]

1 minute ago, Mr. Scot said:

The Vikings have been something of an Achilles Heel for the Saints in recent years.

I know---and the Saints looked bad vs. KC at home.

[t96]

5 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

I know---and the Saints looked bad vs. KC at home.

Their D actually looked really good. Gave Mahomes problems all day. Brees was terrible though.

[*FreeFua*]

You’re ignoring strength of schedule.

We want Dallas to beat Philly.

At this point if we win another game it’s such a clusterf*ck anyways. Atlanta isn’t winning another game and that’s for certain. 

[MHS831]

32 minutes ago, t96 said:

Their D actually looked really good. Gave Mahomes problems all day. Brees was terrible though.

Definitely kept them in it. 

[MHS831]

17 minutes ago, *FreeFua* said:

You’re ignoring strength of schedule.

We want Dallas to beat Philly.

At this point if we win another game it’s such a clusterf*ck anyways. Atlanta isn’t winning another game and that’s for certain. 

I am.  I just have no idea what it will be at the end of the season--it is my blind spot---I admit it.  And Atlanta has KC and TB--a team fighting for its life--they will lose both. So we want Dallas to beat Philly because Dallas would then have 6 wins and would not compete with us if we beat Washington or New Orleans?  However, if Philly loses, we leapfrog them--isnt that 6 of one, half dozen of the other?  Explain what I am missing--head is full.

[*FreeFua*]

14 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

I am.  I just have no idea what it will be at the end of the season--it is my blind spot---I admit it.  And Atlanta has KC and TB--a team fighting for its life--they will lose both. So we want Dallas to beat Philly because Dallas would then have 6 wins and would not compete with us if we beat Washington or New Orleans?  However, if Philly loses, we leapfrog them--isnt that 6 of one, half dozen of the other?  Explain what I am missing--head is full.

At this point we need to hope that we lose out. I realize you’re rooting for teams in case we do win another game (which I think happens). 

Obviously we’re all in agreement that at this point we need to lose out. So if we lose out and Atlanta loses out (which they will) the tie-breaker is strength of schedule.

Our only uncommon opponents are Dallas/Washington NFC East and Seattle/Arizona NFC West. 

Right now our SOS is lower than Atlanta BUT we play Washington this weekend. So with us needing Washington to win it hurts our SOS. We need Dallas to win as well to offset the Washington win. Same applies with Seattle and AZ. 

Because it is possible that we lose out and Atlanta still picks ahead of us. I’m guessing had Washington beat Seattle on Sunday we’d be listed behind Atlanta in the draft order right now

[Martin]

Our 16 opponents currently have 119 wins and 105 losses. Falcons 16 opponents have 120 wins and 104 losses. So it is extremely tight. 

The only difference in our schedule is we played Arizona and Washington. Falcons played Dallas and Seattle.

To keep our edge we need Arizona and Washington to to have the same or worse record that Dallas and Seattle the two remaining weeks

[Khyber53]

1 hour ago, MHS831 said:

I know---and the Saints looked bad vs. KC at home.

And I'm not buying that Brees is really capable of playing at 75% of his normal. He looked like a shell of himself out there.

[MHS831]

1 minute ago, Khyber53 said:

And I'm not buying that Brees is really capable of playing at 75% of his normal. He looked like a shell of himself out there.

He did.  I expected to see Kamara more--

[MHS831]

31 minutes ago, Martin said:

Our 16 opponents currently have 119 wins and 105 losses. Falcons 16 opponents have 120 wins and 104 losses. So it is extremely tight. 

The only difference in our schedule is we played Arizona and Washington. Falcons played Dallas and Seattle.

To keep our edge we need Arizona and Washington to to have the same or worse record that Dallas and Seattle the two remaining weeks

Good stuff.

[Khyber53]

Just now, MHS831 said:

He did.  I expected to see Kamara more--

If the Vikings have any real intention to win, you will see them hitting Brees early and hard. 

[Mr. Scot]

I heard one analyst say that Drew Brees needed to go ahead and get out there for that game so that he could knock the rust off for the games to come.

Not so sure the overall effect was worth it given that they lost, but I can see the rationale.