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Analysts Take on Zach Wilson’s splits: Same ones he used years ago to show why he was much lower on Lock than most others.


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25 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Would be better to compare to Fields, Lawrence, Jones, etc.

Agreed. Others on Twitter asked him to do that for them as well. I don’t have social media or I’d ask. 

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OK, so right off the bat, I have to be "That guy" and say stats can lie, and I'm a huge stat head. These are bare bones stats that really don't paint a picture of how well a QB truly did in a game. It's like pointing to the final score of the USA v Belgium World cup match in 2014 and saying Tim Howard allowed two goals, he sucked. 

For these kind of comparisons you need to do adjusted completion percentages, on target throws, dropped passes by receivers, avg time to throw, etc. etc. Basic completion, attempts, yards, TDs, and INTs don't tell enough of the story of the games. You need more in depth data.

This is how you truly answer the question: Did Wilson fail to rise to the occasion, or did his team? 

Right off the bat, watching the tape of the CC game this past season, Wilson's interception was an end of half Hail Mary. That play is always such a crapshoot, it's completely unfair to judge ANY QB by the result when the vast majority don't work. He also had receivers drop 4-5 passes which would have Boosted his Comp % up to roughly 76%. One of the drops was on a throw that was a 60 yard DIME, so go ahead and tack on 80 missed yards from drops to be on the conservative side. Then there was the play where his receiver ran backwards 15 yards trying to make something happen but failing miserably at it. So conservatively, his receivers left 90-95 yards on the field which would have brought his yardage total up to 330 for the game. 

Again, this was just the coastal game that everyone tries to pin on him. I have not seen the tape of the other games listed so I'm not entirely sure, but to truly get an understanding of how he played you need to watch the tape, watch each throw, and not look at the bare bones box score. 

The same bare bones stats would show Teddy had multiple good games last year when we all know he was checking down all game long and being hyper conservative to the detriment of the team. 

So basically, this isn't in depth enough for me. If he deep dives with advanced stats and they show that against superior competition, he truly shrank then I'll be more inclined to pump the breaks. Until then, I still see Wilson as potentially the best QB in this draft class. 

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17 minutes ago, Ricky Spanish said:

OK, so right off the bat, I have to be "That guy" and say stats can lie, and I'm a huge stat head. These are bare bones stats that really don't paint a picture of how well a QB truly did in a game. It's like pointing to the final score of the USA v Belgium World cup match in 2014 and saying Tim Howard allowed two goals, he sucked. 

For these kind of comparisons you need to do adjusted completion percentages, on target throws, dropped passes by receivers, avg time to throw, etc. etc. Basic completion, attempts, yards, TDs, and INTs don't tell enough of the story of the games. You need more in depth data.

This is how you truly answer the question: Did Wilson fail to rise to the occasion, or did his team? 

Right off the bat, watching the tape of the CC game this past season, Wilson's interception was an end of half Hail Mary. That play is always such a crapshoot, it's completely unfair to judge ANY QB by the result when the vast majority don't work. He also had receivers drop 4-5 passes which would have Boosted his Comp % up to roughly 76%. One of the drops was on a throw that was a 60 yard DIME, so go ahead and tack on 80 missed yards from drops to be on the conservative side. Then there was the play where his receiver ran backwards 15 yards trying to make something happen but failing miserably at it. So conservatively, his receivers left 90-95 yards on the field which would have brought his yardage total up to 330 for the game. 

Again, this was just the coastal game that everyone tries to pin on him. I have not seen the tape of the other games listed so I'm not entirely sure, but to truly get an understanding of how he played you need to watch the tape, watch each throw, and not look at the bare bones box score. 

The same bare bones stats would show Teddy had multiple good games last year when we all know he was checking down all game long and being hyper conservative to the detriment of the team. 

So basically, this isn't in depth enough for me. If he deep dives with advanced stats and they show that against superior competition, he truly shrank then I'll be more inclined to pump the breaks. Until then, I still see Wilson as potentially the best QB in this draft class. 

I understand throwing away the INT in that game because it’s a whatever play but how do you graze the sideline touchdown pass? Wasn’t a particularly great throw and it only became a TD because two defenders looked at the WR like he was going out of bounds and simply didn’t make a real effort to tackle him. 
 

I get having him above Fields and Jones and Lance but I don’t see where people are putting him above Lawrence. 

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8 hours ago, Varking said:

I understand throwing away the INT in that game because it’s a whatever play but how do you graze the sideline touchdown pass? Wasn’t a particularly great throw and it only became a TD because two defenders looked at the WR like he was going out of bounds and simply didn’t make a real effort to tackle him. 
 

I get having him above Fields and Jones and Lance but I don’t see where people are putting him above Lawrence. 

Very true, throw was nothing special, however he still made the right read and got it to the right guy. That's where game film comes into play to kind of review if the stats match the tape. Wilson did far more good than bad in the CC game, but it's looked at as THE game against him based on the stats he put up. In that game watching the film, he did fine. Which is why watching the games is important to give the stats context. 

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49 minutes ago, Ricky Spanish said:

Very true, throw was nothing special, however he still made the right read and got it to the right guy. That's where game film comes into play to kind of review if the stats match the tape. Wilson did far more good than bad in the CC game, but it's looked at as THE game against him based on the stats he put up. In that game watching the film, he did fine. Which is why watching the games is important to give the stats context. 

With literally zero prep time, coming all the way across the country to the highest ranked team they played all season.  Remember, on zero prep, defense is generally ahead.  Using that CC game as the "knock" on Wilson has always bothered me.  Honestly, without Wilson, BYU isn't even in that game.

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2 hours ago, BrianS said:

With literally zero prep time, coming all the way across the country to the highest ranked team they played all season.  Remember, on zero prep, defense is generally ahead.  Using that CC game as the "knock" on Wilson has always bothered me.  Honestly, without Wilson, BYU isn't even in that game.

CC also had no prep though. 

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23 minutes ago, Varking said:

CC also had no prep though. 

Sort of . . . CC was preparing to play a game that weekend, but their opponent cancelled.  BYU was *not* preparing to play at all.  And like I said, low prep time tends to favor the defense.  Watching BYU's Oline in that game, yea, they were definitely not ready.

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