More Illuminating Stats/Context On What's Happening With Sam and Robby

[kungfoodude]

FWIW, here are the expected completion stats from Darnold's career(Source: https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#yards)

2021: -3.7% (31st in the NFL)

2020: -2.6% (34th in the NFL)

2019: 0.3% (15th in the NFL)

2018: -2.7% (32nd in the NFL)

So, as many issues as he has had with drops, he is also not making the throws he should be making. It's a problem that he has always had. 

[mav1234]

19 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

FWIW, here are the expected completion stats from Darnold's career(Source: https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#yards)

2021: -3.7% (31st in the NFL)

2020: -2.6% (34th in the NFL)

2019: 0.3% (15th in the NFL)

2018: -2.7% (32nd in the NFL)

So, as many issues as he has had with drops, he is also not making the throws he should be making. It's a problem that he has always had. 

It appears that does not account for drops based on the description, unless they clarify that elsewhere. If true, we should probably consider that Darnold has had 16+ drops for an otherworldly 7.5% of his passes dropped this year... That is crazy given the quality of receivers we have.

That said Darnold is far too inconsistent and needs to find ways to make the typical plays more often.

Edited October 20, 2021 by mav1234

[kungfoodude]

25 minutes ago, mav1234 said:

It appears that does not account for drops based on the description, unless they clarify that elsewhere. If true, we should probably consider that Darnold has had 16+ drops for an otherworldly 7.5% of his passes dropped this year... That is crazy given the quality of receivers we have.

That said Darnold is far too inconsistent and needs to find ways to make the typical plays more often.

Well did he have those issues with drops in NY too? Because those stats look remarkably similar.

[mav1234]

7 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Well did he have those issues with drops in NY too? Because those stats look remarkably similar.

Not this bad. He already has had receivers drop more passes this year than last, almost as many as in 2018.  2019 though was also bad, but not this bad, 6%.  He was pretty much in the 4-5% range other years which isn't unusual for a team with mediocre to bad receivers.  But that isn't supposed to be this group...

[kungfoodude]

3 minutes ago, mav1234 said:

Not this bad. He already has had receivers drop more passes this year than last, almost as many as in 2018.  2019 though was also bad, but not this bad, 6%.  He was pretty much in the 4-5% range other years which isn't unusual for a team with mediocre to bad receivers.  But that isn't supposed to be this group...

Well....there is one common denominator in this equation......

[mav1234]

2 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Well....there is one common denominator in this equation......

Robby Anderson? Because when he wasn't on the Jets Darnolds dropped passes were at its lowest

Edit: DJ had a much higher percent of dropped passes last year than Robby, but he still did have 6.  

Edited October 20, 2021 by mav1234

[CRA]

1 hour ago, mav1234 said:

Robby Anderson? Because when he wasn't on the Jets Darnolds dropped passes were at its lowest

Edit: DJ had a much higher percent of dropped passes last year than Robby, but he still did have 6.  

Robby Anderson has had a catch % over 54% just once....and that is when Teddy was his QB.   Almost 70% with Teddy.  Which goes back to why I wanted to wait before we paid/extended Robby.  See him with Sam and the growth of the draft picks before paying him based off what was an anomaly season. The Sam to Robby connection has never been a good one.    The fact they have been on the same team together never meant the chemistry/connection was good. 

 

 

[mav1234]

8 minutes ago, CRA said:

Robby Anderson has had a catch % over 54% just once....and that is when Teddy was his QB.   Almost 70% with Teddy.  Which goes back to why I wanted to wait before we paid/extended Robby.  See him with Sam and the growth of the draft picks before paying him based of what was an anomaly season. The Sam to Robby connection has never been a good one.    The fact they have been on the team never meant the chemistry/connection was good. 

There's no coincidence that Anderson's Y/R was so much higher without Teddy... The difference between Anderson with and without Teddy seems to be usage-related.  The Y/R were MUCH lower with Teddy than any other QB (not just Darnold)...

yes Teddy throws a more catchable ball (but we also had TONS of hospital ball threads about him too, and remember some of the awful ducks he'd throw to poor DJ?), and is more accurate than Darnold, but there's more to it than that because Robby has looked better both with Darnold and other Jets QBs than he looks now... 

Edited October 20, 2021 by mav1234

[CRA]

20 minutes ago, mav1234 said:

There's no coincidence that the difference between Anderson with and without Teddy seemed to be usage-related.  The Y/R were MUCH lower with Teddy than any other QB (not just Darnold), and I think that is reflected in how he was being used in the offense as much as who was throwing him the ball.

yes Teddy throws a more catchable ball (but we also had TONS of hospital ball threads about him too, and remember some of the awful ducks he'd throw to poor DJ?), and is more accurate than Darnold, but there's more to it than that because Robby has looked better both with Darnold and other Jets QBs than he looks now... 

I think when it all evens out, Robby will finish the year very similar to how most of his ones with the Jets were.  I just think he had a fluke season.  We see those with players of his caliber all the time.   It's why the Jets let him go and why he had the rep of not being a very good all around WR.    

I think last year opponents didn't really know what Joe Brady's O was going to be.  New always has advantages until the tape sets in.  Why QBs often take steps back in year 2.  So while the league figured it out, they just gave Teddy the short of the stick stuff they knew he would take.  And Teddy nickel and dimed people between the 20s with it.   And Robby excelled in that moment.   But now Joe Brady and Carolina aren't a mystery.   So they man up and play the WRs tougher.   And DJ has always been a more well rounded WR and better WR.....so he continues to be what he always has been.   Every week  DJ is making some insane catches.   And Robby is largely going back to being what he always has been.  Not a very good WR.  But one you that can randomly hit you for a big play if you get lazy with him.  

 

[mav1234]

1 minute ago, CRA said:

I think when it all evens out, Robby will finish the year very similar to how most of his ones with the Jets were.  I just think he had a fluke season.  We see those with players of his caliber all the time.   It's why the Jets let him go and why he had the rep of not being a very good all around WR.    

I think last year opponents didn't really know what Joe Brady's O was going to be.  New always has advantages until the tape sets in.  Why QBs often take steps back in year 2.  So while the league figured it out, they just gave Teddy the short of the stick stuff they knew he would take.  And Teddy nickel and dimed people between the 20s with it.   And Robby excelled in that moment.   But now Joe Brady and Carolina aren't a mystery.   So they man up and play the WRs tougher.   And DJ has always been a more well rounded WR and better WR.....so he continues to be what he always has been.   Every week  DJ is making some insane catches.   And Robby is largely going back to being what he always has been.  Not a very good WR.  But one you that can randomly hit you for a big play if you get lazy with him.  

I'm afraid this assessment is correct. I personally hoped we had found a way to make Robby a multidimensional, reliable receiving threat, but more and more I think it is just how people were letting our offense preform and like you say, with a year of tape...

this year is setting up to be by far his worst though.  so if he'll make it back to his Jets-like level, he's due for some better games at some point...

[Pimpdaddy]

...something is amiss with these receivers... the cause is information that we're not privy to...but we can see it on game day... someone has sht on their hands...who is it?...its almost like some kind of dissension ..... hope Rhule isn't losing the team... we have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball with the exception of that shtty Oline.

[Spatric]

It is possible that the OC thought Sam to Andersen  would work and therefore based his use-age - longer slower developing routes - on that assumption.  The jets game they connect on an bomb and ,maybe just maybe he figures he got something.   

I have read on these site all of your comments about the OL and wonder how the CS knowing SAM limitations actually increased Robbie's routes... I mean its ludicrous, know? 

What is troubling, for this writer, is that the OC either doesn't understand or worse believes his system is full proof.  I mean does he really believe league hasn't caught up to his O?  To not make adjustments - as he has indicated recently because it all about execution - is IMHO tantamount to coaching malfeasance.  

Similarly, this is what is happening with the NYJ now, there O scheme is not working yet (if ever) and the PC has been predicable yet the OC continues to do the same thing.. sound familiar.

 

 

[CRA]

1 hour ago, Pimpdaddy said:

...something is amiss with these receivers... the cause is information that we're not privy to...but we can see it on game day... someone has sht on their hands...who is it?...its almost like some kind of dissension ..... hope Rhule isn't losing the team... we have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball with the exception of that shtty Oline.

DJ Moore has been an absolute beast on the year.  

this overall is just a Robby Anderson issue.  

And the fact we paid him so heavily is impacting IMO the ability for the rookies to get the reps they should be getting.   Rhule and company overpaid Anderson and he just isn’t what his one year anomaly season suggested …and here we are.  

 

[CRA]

11 minutes ago, Spatric said:

It is possible that the OC thought Sam to Andersen  would work and therefore based his use-age - longer slower developing routes - on that assumption.  The jets game they connect on an bomb and ,maybe just maybe he figures he got something.   

I have read on these site all of your comments about the OL and wonder how the CS knowing SAM limitations actually increased Robbie's routes... I mean its ludicrous, know? 

What is troubling, for this writer, is that the OC either doesn't understand or worse believes his system is full proof.  I mean does he really believe league hasn't caught up to his O?  To not make adjustments - as he has indicated recently because it all about execution - is IMHO tantamount to coaching malfeasance.  

Similarly, this is what is happening with the NYJ now, there O scheme is not working yet (if ever) and the PC has been predicable yet the OC continues to do the same thing.. sound familiar.

 

 

RBs look good considering the OL talent.

DJ balling 

Ian Thomas finally showing something.  Tremble looking decent for a rookie being worked in.  

rookie WRs look good when we rarely see them. 

it’s basically the two guys the Jets didn’t want struggling the most.  It’s almost like the most painfully obvious answer is the right answer.  That we shouldn’t of built the core of our O with parts from the NY Jets…