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Advanced Passing Stats Through 8 Games(2020 vs. 2021)

kungfoodude

By kungfoodude,
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kungfoodude Grand Master

kungfoodude

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8 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

You don't happen to have Sam's accuracy numbers for the year do you?  Not his completion percentage but his acutally accuracy numbers.  Historically he has been bad in that department and it feels the same this year.

Everyone gets caught up in this narrative that he can't process, and yet there is probably some truth to this but its not that simple.  I think sometimes the accuracy just isn't there.

QB A is accurate 6/10 on third down and QB B is accurate 5/10.  That extra accurate throw can be the difference in the WR getting the 1st down or not.  That one 3rd down conversion can be the difference between an extra series staying alive and a team scoring an extra 7 points.

You give us an extra 7 points a game we have a top 10 offense.  Fans think in absolutes, Tom brady isn't accurate on every 3rd pass and Sam isn't inaccurate on every 3rd pass but instead its small percentages difference between them.

Even if Sam processes better he still has to make the throws.

 

Sam has actually thrown some decent short range balls this year.  He throws a good slant usually.  I'm guessing that is helping the YAC considerable.  

I am trying to find the PFR OnTarget% stats but I can't seem to dig them up. I think the next best thing would be NFL Next Gen Stats Expected Completion Percentage, which Darnold would be sitting at -5.1%, 33rd in the NFL currently. 

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mav1234 Grand Master

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37 minutes ago, Pantherxtreme said:

Whatever it is, it surely can't be his play on the football field these same guys were jumping up and down about Teddy's play last season, he wasn't afforded any of the excuses they are giving to Sam, same coaching staff, pretty much same receivers and offensive line. 

Eh, that's not true. Teddy had plenty of defenders and supporters midway thru the season that complained about our OL and red zone playcalling. After his first few weeks we also had lots of threads about finally finding our QB etc... A few posters were upset at his arm strength and a couple of is didn't think he was clutch enough to win games when the pressure was on, but he looked good early.

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4 minutes ago, mav1234 said:

Eh, that's not true. Teddy had plenty of defenders and supporters midway thru the season that complained about our OL and red zone playcalling. After his first few weeks we also had lots of threads about finally finding our QB etc... A few posters were upset at his arm strength and a couple of is didn't think he was clutch enough to win games when the pressure was on, but he looked good early.

I was on the boards last season and one of those "few" Teddy supporters and that guy didn't have a chance on this board from set go. 

On one end you had the people who were disgruntled about how everything went down with Cam and they wasn't going to miss an opportunity to poo on Teddy, on the other end you had the guys who were ready to move on from Cam but wasn't quite sure Teddy was the long term guy and could point out to you all of his flaws.

Now some of those same guys want us to exercise patience with an even worst quarterback. 

 

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AU-panther Mentor

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14 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

I am trying to find the PFR OnTarget% stats but I can't seem to dig them up. I think the next best thing would be NFL Next Gen Stats Expected Completion Percentage, which Darnold would be sitting at -5.1%, 33rd in the NFL currently. 

I keep going back to the stat that PFF had listed during the summer.  With a clean pocket he has historically been one of the most inaccurate QBs in the league.  

If your QB doesn't play well when things go right, that is a bad sign.  Also that tends to be a very stable metric from year to year.

So even if our O-line plays well, he still might not process the play well according to some.  Even if he does process the play well he will make an accurate throw less often than almost any other QB.

You put all of that together and that's not good.

I think at times we are letting the O-line play, WR drops, and play calling distract us from the most important problem.

 

 

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kungfoodude Grand Master

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1 minute ago, Pantherxtreme said:

I was on the boards last season and one of those "few" Teddy supporters and that guy didn't have a chance on this board from set go. 

On one end you had the people who were disgruntled about how everything went down with Cam and they wasn't going to miss an opportunity to poo on Teddy, on the other end you had the guys who were ready to move on from Cam but wasn't quite sure Teddy was the long term guy and could point out to you all of his flaws.

Now some of those same guys want us to exercise patience with an even worst quarterback. 

 

I was anti-Teddy and anti-Darnold prior to them ever playing a game here. Largely because they had never shown that they were more than they showed they were here. Teddy had a "career" year with us, as a very middling below average starter and Darnold is continuing to be the worst QB in the NFL, something he was FOR THREE STRAIGHT YEARS.

That is why the bulk of my frustration is with Matt Rhule and his complete lack of understand what an even competent QB looks like. Need more evidence?? PJ fuging Walker. How in the hell is he even on the roster? How does he beat out Will Grier? How the hell do you not have a better option than that??

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kungfoodude Grand Master

kungfoodude

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1 minute ago, AU-panther said:

I keep going back to the stat that PFF had listed during the summer.  With a clean pocket he has historically been one of the most inaccurate QBs in the league.  

If your QB doesn't play well when things go right, that is a bad sign.  Also that tends to be a very stable metric from year to year.

So even if our O-line plays well, he still might not process the play well according to some.  Even if he does process the play well he will make an accurate throw less often than almost any other QB.

You put all of that together and that's not good.

I think at times we are letting the O-line play, WR drops, and play calling distract us from the most important problem.

Yes, his clean pocket problems have been well documented over his career. So, while we can all agree pressure gets to any QB, the damning thing is that with Darnold his career pressured stats have always been better than his clean pocket stats. That isn't good.

He can't process what he is seeing, he doesn't throw accurately and he plays worse when things are going well for him. That isn't new either, it was the same for 3 years with the Jets. None of this is a surprise, he has literally mirrored his performances with the Jets here in Carolina.

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