Jump to content

  • Welcome!

    Register and log in easily with Twitter or Google accounts!

    Or simply create a new Huddle account. 

    Members receive fewer ads , access our dark theme, and the ability to join the discussion!

     

Probability Analysis of the Burns and DJ decision

Evil Hurney

By Evil Hurney,
in Carolina Panthers

 Share

Recommended Posts

mrcompletely11 Grand Master

mrcompletely11

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Evil Hurney said:

I understand what you are saying. I do.

The OP is trying to figure out the probability of drafting comparable players and profit.

Without doing A LOT of leg work the Pro Bowl data is the best surrogate I found for drafted players. If you want to tick things up or down a few percentage points to account for "not actually making a Pro Bowl", go for it. But as I already mentioned WRs make the Pro Bowl far less often than the 44% I already used.

The pro bowl is a dumb way to measure these types of things and in no way validate that we shouldnt have done the deals esp Burns.  I mean for fugs sake Gilmore made the pro bowl last year and he didnt even play half a season. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tr3ach Grand Master

Tr3ach

Posted
Posted
49 minutes ago, Evil Hurney said:

This first part of this was addressed. Look at page 2.

Salary or more accurately cap space is an interesting dimension brought up by many. I just don't know how to value it. In a money ball sense you are paying for production (over replacement) not just warm bodies, but what are the chances that level of production even exists in FA. If they did why would anyone trade for a DJ or Burns?

Players that have that much projected productivity don't tend to hit FA. Instead you are paying for band-aids and projects which will likely cost more in the long run (see our recent QB history).

Burns hasn't had a season with double digit sacks yet.  I have no idea and I would have to look into it but I would assume there are pass rushing specialist defensive ends and olb that average >9 sacks a season available as free agents almost every season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
mrcompletely11 Grand Master

mrcompletely11

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Tr3ach said:

Burns hasn't had a season with double digit sacks yet.  I have no idea and I would have to look into it but I would assume there are pass rushing specialist defensive ends and olb that average >9 sacks a season available as free agents almost every season.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/all/defensive-end//

 

looks like it

Link to comment
Share on other sites
poundaway Grand Master

poundaway

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, Leeroy Jenkins Ph.D. said:

Now do the same for the McCaffrey trade. 

Exactly.

DJ Moore is not probowler and tho Burns has earned one, his stats aren't spectacular. 

Its funny how the same people that bitched and complained constantly about Burn's inability to handle the run are the same ones worshiping Fit for turning away 1st round picks for him.

The Fit fluffers are out in force.

"Rhule's GM is the future!  The man is a genius!"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing

  • PMH4OWPW7JD2TDGWZKTOYL2T3E.jpg

  • Topics

  • Posts

    • MHS831
      2027: Sharing my thoughts on the cap without a lotta research

      By MHS831 · Posted

      I see Bryce's development this way: He improved when his supporting cast improved.  TMac and Dowdle saved his arse last year, but in fairness, most good QBs have good WRs and good RBs--and good OLs.   The 2025 OL underperformed, actually. They were above average, but they should have been elite if you consider the salary cap.   As soon as we signed Lewis and Hunt, I started thinking, "That's not sustainable.  With Ickey about to get paid a LT salary, Moton and Hunt grabbling $50m per season combined, and Lewis around $17m--that would be nearly $100m and the Center just walked.  Yikes.  What does that mean?  Rico walks, Mays walks, and we do not have a top 5 WR on a second contract.  We do not have an elite TE, and only 1 is on a modest second contract. And now Bryce will demand $50m for his incremental rise to mediocrity?   So when we sign Bryce, we will get weaker at other positions.  Hunt, Moton, maybe Ickey and Lewis, will all be casualties--that is the right move regardless (not sure yet about Ickey, but he was not elite) Bryce is one lucky, entitled camper.  No competition since being drafted, and he lost his job for a while to the aging clipboard holder.  Now we are bringing in UDFAs and busts to compete with him.  
    • 45catfan
      Bryce Young 5th year option exercised

      By 45catfan · Posted

      Probably not.  If we are taking a QB, it would be a prospect to replace Bryce and not a flyer type player.  I can't say for sure, but I doubt he would have cracked the top 3-4 QBs even if he were to play this coming season.  
    • 45catfan
      Bryce Young 5th year option exercised

      By 45catfan · Posted

      The Giants, Cardinals  and Dolphins should have moved on, but they didn't and ended up cutting their QB early into a monster second contract and had to eat a TON of dead cap money.
×
×
  • Create New...