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Albert Breer: Panthers could "hold auction" for #33 pick

TheSpecialJuan

By TheSpecialJuan,
in Carolina Panthers

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strato Grand Master

strato

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Tbe said:


Here are some numbers I found. Posted this a few months back.

2nd round - about 33% of players drafted in the 2nd round developed into a solid NFL starter. It’s higher for the top of the round. From here, it dropped by 50% per round.

3rd round - about 16%.

4th round - about 8%.

If you do the math, selecting two 3rd rounders gives you a 29.44% chance of gaining ONE long term starter.

Thats less than the odds for a single high 2nd.

 

Yeah and it will vary by the talent pool each year. If it is a stacked year those percentages would be a little different. 

For me it would largely depend on who I was passing over if I traded. 

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SOJA Veteran

SOJA

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Posted

I think it really depends on the players available. If there is a team willing to give up a warchest to grab let's say Penix of course you consider it. But if a stud WR is there at 33 that would be hard to turn down 

I like to what Gantt posted this week about how historically the compensation for 33 is basically an extra fourth. IMO that isn't worth it if a guy is there you know won't be at 39

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SCO96 Veteran

SCO96

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, jasonluckydog said:

If you can't get an extra 2nd or early 3rd its not worth it.  4th through 7th historically has the smallest chance of sticking around. Undrafted FA tend to do better. 

If we could trade down to 35/36 and pick up an extra high draft choice in the 3rd round I “might” consider a move down. But as someone pointed out earlier, we are more likely to find a starter the higher they are selected in the draft.

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