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PFF Update Rankings - Notable ED shifts

Bear Hands

By Bear Hands,
in Carolina Panthers

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Basbear Grand Master

Basbear

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Bear Hands said:

Will say, as I've dug into things, Mike Green is absolutely legit.  

There are only 3 appropriately-sized guys in this class with over a 20% PR win rate, 99 percentile PR skills:

Abdul Carter, James Pierce, & Mike Green.  All 3 of those guys are 3-4 molds, but not undersized or poor in run-d grade by any means. Will say, Pierce would not be a bad option at 8 if Graham IDL & Johnson DB are gone.  Those 3 are the top.  I find it hard to dispute.  Gillette arguably falls into this category, but his run-d isn't at their level or else he'd be viewed much higher in this class.  

Then comes the appeal of Jalon Walker who's this offball/edge hybrid.  Overall, just a stud football player.

Then there's the consistent, hard-nose, above average type in Sawyer.  Nothing flashy, but he's a known commodity, seems like a dude primed to join an upper midwest team.  

But the guys floating around 10% PR win rates that aren't necessarily stud run defenders, I just don't want much part of.  Mykel, Shermar, Kennard are the types that worry me.  

Now, the pass rush specialists, give me those guys like JT, Princely (stud), Donavon Ez in R2-4...instantly insert them into our sub packages, PR downs and let them cook.  

Some really interesting options.

  

 

 

Heres my current, well weeks ago belief. I would be happy with any of those 3 at #8. Weird part is ranking these guys, I thought it would vary among teams and it sure does. Add in either ge dawg too, love both, both playing edge is the only way.   

Plus the combine, for many years and each passing, people have been saying it doesn't matter. For me it as valuable as ever. Id say more if got insight to the personal interviews. 

So with that in mind, I got green over Carter currently. If you place more weight on older stuff, Id even put pierce over him. 

My current feel is #8 is red hot spot for OT. If a team drafting 9-11 wants to pick of litter a LT, that seems to be the spot which it makes the most sense. 

 

I do not want Morgan to move unless its with a OT needed team thats close to #8. The worst outcome I foresee is Will Johnson Michigan, whom I feel is the best CB in the whole draft. Even if you resign Michael Jackson for like 3 years, well you just have one of the best CB and NB groups in the league. I do not want to trade to 11 unless its a huge overpay, nothing for 12-16 unless they include a future 1st. 

Honestly its as good as I felt in some time about the draft...

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Osaka Panther Contributor

Osaka Panther

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On 1/23/2025 at 1:51 AM, Bear Hands said:

Will say, as I've dug into things, Mike Green is absolutely legit.  

There are only 3 appropriately-sized guys in this class with over a 20% PR win rate, 99 percentile PR skills:

Abdul Carter, James Pierce, & Mike Green.  All 3 of those guys are 3-4 molds, but not undersized or poor in run-d grade by any means. Will say, Pierce would not be a bad option at 8 if Graham IDL & Johnson DB are gone.  Those 3 are the top.  I find it hard to dispute.  Gillette arguably falls into this category, but his run-d isn't at their level or else he'd be viewed much higher in this class.  

Then comes the appeal of Jalon Walker who's this offball/edge hybrid.  Overall, just a stud football player.

Then there's the consistent, hard-nose, above average type in Sawyer.  Nothing flashy, but he's a known commodity, seems like a dude primed to join an upper midwest team.  

But the guys floating around 10% PR win rates that aren't necessarily stud run defenders, I just don't want much part of.  Mykel, Shermar, Kennard are the types that worry me.  

Now, the pass rush specialists, give me those guys like JT, Princely (stud), Donavon Ez in R2-4...instantly insert them into our sub packages, PR downs and let them cook.  

Some really interesting options.

  

 

would be pissed if we draft a DB in the 1st when our run D and pass rush is butt. 

 

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TD alt Grand Master

TD alt

Posted
Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, Osaka Panther said:

would be pissed if we draft a DB in the 1st when our run D and pass rush is butt. 

 

It's all about value. Passing up superior players to reach for a need is not necessarily going to lead to desired results. You do that too many times, and you have what we have now.

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Bear Hands Grand Master

Bear Hands

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On 1/22/2025 at 7:30 PM, Aussie Tank said:

I'd take Pierce in a heart beat 

I like Pearce Jr. a ton.  I see rather short-sided mocks dropping him but when you look at the big picture, scouts want a few things with top edge talent and he checks a lot of boxes:

Size - check

Bend - check

Burst - check

Run defense - check (top of class run stop rate)

Good, consistent tape - check

And then when the analytics departments start checking him out....

Pass Rush/Pressure metrics - HUGE check - 2024 alone: 43 hurries, 22.7% win rate, created consistent pressure within 2.5 seconds of the snap (big for Canales' philosophy IMO)

*He's also a Charlotte native so likely grew up a Panthers fan.  

PR Win Rate is not an end all/be all stat, but it becomes one when you separate the pass-rush specialists from the 3-down types.  So looking at the other (potential) 3-down types--

You have Shermar Stewart for example, who's a good, not great at run-d, he's at 12%, not good and it showed at times.  He disappeared for stretches.  Most successful guys are at least in that mid-teens range.   Kennard, who has had flashes, but inconsistent, is not good in run-d, and his win rate is only 13%.  Huge red flag IMO. 

 

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Osaka Panther Contributor

Osaka Panther

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, TD alt said:

It's all about value. Passing up superior players to reach for a need is not necessarily going to lead to desired results. You do that too many times, and you have what we have now.

i aint talking about taking a B level DT/DE over an A level DB. 

at pick 8, we will have the option to take an A level DT/DE. 

 

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TD alt Grand Master

TD alt

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Osaka Panther said:

i aint talking about taking a B level DT/DE over an A level DB. 

at pick 8, we will have the option to take an A level DT/DE. 

 

Not necessarily. 

Everyone has their opinion, so take the following with a grain of salt.

Screenshot_20250124_212827_Chrome.thumb.jpg.6dbcb2abc0039bc3c215af3fa43034bc.jpg

"But for those EDGEs with a 14% pressure rate or lower, only 1 in 8 turn out to be good pros with almost half being busts."

https://phillycovercorner.com/2024/12/projecting-edges-to-the-nfl-and-a-look-at-the-2025-draft-class/

 

Now I'm not saying this guy's mouth is a prayer book, because it's an opinion based on either his own big board (or someone else's), but the stats that he has informed readers about, in regards to the success rates of past drafted EDGEs in the NFL, is not something that's really arguable (presuming his stats are correct). What we must determine is if it's worth drafting an EDGE at a certain position within those parameters, or just buck the correlation (if it comes down to that). But within the context of the article, there are really only three guys worth taking in the first round.

 

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Bear Hands Grand Master

Bear Hands

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On 1/22/2025 at 7:44 PM, Basbear said:

I do not want Morgan to move unless its with a OT needed team thats close to #8. The worst outcome I foresee is Will Johnson Michigan, whom I feel is the best CB in the whole draft. Even if you resign Michael Jackson for like 3 years, well you just have one of the best CB and NB groups in the league. I do not want to trade to 11 unless its a huge overpay, nothing for 12-16 unless they include a future 1st. 

 

I’m a Will Johnson fan but I think Benjamin Morrison ends up CB1. Massive appeal with him in the scouting community right now.

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Navy_football Grand Master

Navy_football

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28 minutes ago, Bear Hands said:

I’m a Will Johnson fan but I think Benjamin Morrison ends up CB1. Massive appeal with him in the scouting community right now.

I think the talent is there for Morrison, but I'm a little concerned about his injury history. Even Will Johnson's turf toe worries me. Those tend to linger longer than expected. 

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Bear Hands Grand Master

Bear Hands

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9 hours ago, TD alt said:

Not necessarily. 

Everyone has their opinion, so take the following with a grain of salt.

Screenshot_20250124_212827_Chrome.thumb.jpg.6dbcb2abc0039bc3c215af3fa43034bc.jpg

"But for those EDGEs with a 14% pressure rate or lower, only 1 in 8 turn out to be good pros with almost half being busts."

https://phillycovercorner.com/2024/12/projecting-edges-to-the-nfl-and-a-look-at-the-2025-draft-class/

 

Now I'm not saying this guy's mouth is a prayer book, because it's an opinion based on either his own big board (or someone else's), but the stats that he has informed readers about, in regards to the success rates of past drafted EDGEs in the NFL, is not something that's really arguable (presuming his stats are correct). What we must determine is if it's worth drafting an EDGE at a certain position within those parameters, or just buck the correlation (if it comes down to that). But within the context of the article, there are really only three guys worth taking in the first round.

 

That’s a similar lens that I’m looking at through the potential 3-down edge talent. Though the pressure rate numbers are a tad different than on PFF. Must have an added metric that keeps them low vs Pass Rush Win rate. Carter’s Win rate for example is 22.6 on PFF

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TD alt Grand Master

TD alt

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On 1/25/2025 at 6:59 AM, Bear Hands said:

That’s a similar lens that I’m looking at through the potential 3-down edge talent. Though the pressure rate numbers are a tad different than on PFF. Must have an added metric that keeps them low vs Pass Rush Win rate. Carter’s Win rate for example is 22.6 on PFF

That's a pretty substantial difference, and to be honest I don't know what metric the writer is using. The question would be if there is a similar ratio within the context of PFF's numbers though the numbers are different. Though the PFF numbers are elevated, do they follow a similar path, and can we draw the same conclusions? That's really the point, and I am no stats guy (and don't have a PFF subscription) so I don't know the answer. It would be interesting to see if there is any correlation however, in regards to pressure win-rates in college being predictive of success in the pros.

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rebelrouser Mentor

rebelrouser

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On 1/24/2025 at 9:44 PM, TD alt said:

"But for those EDGEs with a 14% pressure rate or lower, only 1 in 8 turn out to be good pros with almost half being busts."

There are nine edge rushers with a > 14% on his chart though. Remember he is writing for the Eagles who pick late. I think we end up with a list that says Carter or Pearce are fine at 8 and if they are both gone look to trade back or take the cb or lb.

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