HOW 4 QBs Could Go First Round

[MHS831]

Today's headlines have caused me to rethink things, and that is difficult when I rarely think things.  Apparently Dan Orlovsky and others feel that Jaxon Dart is one of the best QBs in this draft.  He knows QBs pretty well, so I am not going to pretend to know more--I really have no clue about evaluating QB talent in college in relation to the NFL. 

"(Career) Dart passed for 10,617 yards and 72 touchdowns over his three seasons with the Rebels. He also rushed for 1,498 yards and 12 touchdowns with Ole Miss."

Had a good week at SR Bowl.  Some talent evaluators in attendance were so impressed, they rate him QB 2.

So this is where it gets interesting. (I get Matt Corral vibes about Kiffin QBs, but this aint coming from me)  Based on pieces of conjecture and rumor I have heard recently, here is my take on the top 10 which would lay the tracks for 4 QBs going in round 1:

• Tennessee will not take a QB first overall, according the Mina Kimes.  They could entertain trade offers because their needs are QB (but not at #1), OL, WR, and defensive front 7.  I predict a trade with the Jets.  I would say Giants, but I GM Schoen is on the hotseat--a trade up with a bad pick could get you Fitterered. Trade:  Jets take Cam Ward.
• Cleveland also needs a QB since Watson can't get his Achilles massaged regularly.  I think they might take Ward if he is there, but many are projecting Sanders to the Browns, probably because they think Ward is going #1.  (talk on the street).  Sanders fits Kevin Stepanski's system, however, so does Will Howard.  Drafting the best player in the draft vs. a QB with a few ??? behind his name at #2?  However, rumors from my brother-in-law who is a chiropractor in Columbus, they could wait and take Ohio State QB Will Howard at 33 if they feel they could get Hunter at pick 2 and Howard at pick 33--both probable.  I am not certain that Sanders will be the better pro than Howard, but I am certain that anyone drafted at 33 will not be better than Hunter.  WR/CB Travis Hunter will be the pick. (note: Cleveland needs a RB too--I could see them taking Sanders and moving back up into round 1 from 33 to draft Ashton Jeanty, RB, as well.  I can see Johnson approving of this to support a young QB behind a solid OL--but I am still going with Hunter/Howard.)
• The Giants will take a QB if one is there at #3, and I do not think Joe Schoen has the balls to take Dart.  Although I am having trouble picturing this, I think Sanders will be a Giant. 
• New England: Most of the Patriot beat writers are suggesting that the Patriots MAYE take Will Campbell, OT LSU.  This is a bit surprising to me, but those who cover the Pats hear stuff.  Out of 8 experts, half selected Campbell.
• Jacksonville could go many ways.  However, secondary is a HUGE need behind OL, and there are no elite OL at #5.  Will Johnson, CB, Michigan would be worth the #5 overall selection and fill that need.
• Vegas Raiders is a good fit for Darnold because the OL is in place.  He could use a WR and they could use an edge on the other side of Mad Maxx Crosby.  I think that is what they do, knowing they can add WRs later.  Pick: Abdul Carter, Edge.
• Tennessee (from Jets):  If I am the GM, I know the Titans need a WR and OL help in addition to QB.  I also have the capital (from the Jets trade) to move back up into round 1.  Unless addressed in free agency, grabbing the best WR here is the way to go.  Titans take T. McMillan, WR, Arizona. 
• Carolina:  Gotta be Mason Graham, DL, Michigan.  (Other options: Mykel Williams, edge--lotta people salivating over him; Jalon Walker LB; James Pearce, edge (local boys)

So what about Dart? 

If enthusiasm for Dart continues, I could see him going to the Colts at 14.  If Tennessee wants him, I could see them trading up with Miami to get him at 13.  I know this sounds crazy, but if high-level officials are saying he is QB 2. 

How in the world is Will Howard a first rounder?  That is crazy talk!!! 

Is it Possible, assuming the draft goes down as described here, that the Browns want the fifth-year option on their future QB, so they do like the Panthers did with XL--they trade up 1 spot with KC or Philly? It may cost them a future third rounder, but the payoff in terms of cap savings could be huge.  So the Browns draft the best player in the draft, Travis Hunter, and they get their future QB (hopefully) at 32, securing inexpensive qb play for 5 years.

Do not underestimate Howard's play in the Playoffs.  He was awesome and demonstrated mobility.  There are QB-needy teams paying attention.  Enough knowledge from me.

Good News for Panther Fans:  If you break down needs as you go through the draft, it is possible Carter falls to us--it is also as unlikely.  The key seems to be the New England pick.  If Hunter is gone, they MUST have an OT for Maye.  Watch them in free agency.    If they draft OT at #4, it opens things up for us.  If (by April) Jaxon Dart seeps into the top 10, great.  I can't believe I am saying that--Dart?  Yeah, from what I am reading today, Dart.

 

 

[Jon Snow]

I would take Dart over Sanders in a heartbeat. Maybe even before Ward. But there really isn't a 1st rounder among them. All of them will be overdrafted out of need.

[MHS831]

1 minute ago, Jon Snow said:

I would take Dart over Sanders in a heartbeat. Maybe even before Ward. But there really isn't a 1st rounder among them. All of them will be overdrafted out of need.

I agree.  I think I might take Will Howard over both--I realize they put up stats--something that worries me about Dart in the Kiffin system, but doing it for 3 years is better than Matt Corral, imo,.  If Cleveland takes Hunter and then can get their QB (I am very high on Howard--people call me crazy--even those who don't know my opinion on Howard) and I know that they are very high on him in Ohio.  I think that would be a win-win. Howard could use a season behind a veteran, so I would not be opposed to bringing in a vet like a Taylor Heinicke to help him transition.  In my opinion, Taylor Heinicke is a great backup qb in the NFL

[Jon Snow]

I think the qb run will start in round 2 if there is one. It will come down to who signs qb's in FA and who those qb's are. I just cannot see more than 2 go in the 1st round. The way I see it the value is just not there.

[MHS831]

1 hour ago, Jon Snow said:

I think the qb run will start in round 2 if there is one. It will come down to who signs qb's in FA and who those qb's are. I just cannot see more than 2 go in the 1st round. The way I see it the value is just not there.

Well, I could not draft Dart in round 1--I could not draft Sanders or Ward in the top 10--however, when you are a GM and the free agent market is piss poor, I might be more inclined to roll the dice--there are 2 players from last year that I thought were bad picks (Jayden Daniels--good college player, but a pro? and Bo Nix (I thought he was a second round career backup.  I am terrible at picking pro QBs from the college pool.  Can't do it.  So I can't base my opinion on prior knowledge. 

I try to look at the GM--Schoen in NY HAS TO DRAFT A QB.  I don't even think he can bring in Fields or Darnold--too risky.  He has to hope to get Sanders or Ward--I do not see any options for him.

Darnold will be a Raider---saying it now.  Mark my wirds. By the way, this is one of those threads you make before the all star games and combine and free agency and cringe.

Edited February 1 by MHS831

[Jon Snow]

2 hours ago, MHS831 said:

Well, I could not draft Dart in round 1--I could not draft Sanders or Ward in the top 10--however, when you are a GM and the free agent market is piss poor, I might be more inclined to roll the dice--there are 2 players from last year that I thought were bad picks (Jayden Daniels--good college player, but a pro? and Bo Nix (I thought he was a second round career backup.  I am terrible at picking pro QBs from the college pool.  Can't do it.  So I can't base my opinion on prior knowledge. 

I try to look at the GM--Schoen in NY HAS TO DRAFT A QB.  I don't even think he can bring in Fields or Darnold--too risky.  He has to hope to get Sanders or Ward--I do not see any options for him.

Darnold will be a Raider---saying it now.  Mark my wirds. By the way, this is one of those threads you make before the all star games and combine and free agency and cringe.

I cannot pick who among them will make it either. My only prediction last year was the of all the qb's taken only 2 maybe 3 will have success. And even then it would greatly depend on the team and coaching around them. I still stand by that.

But this year I'm struggling to see any of them being a first year starter much less being able to make it in the nfl. It's a bad year to need a qb.

[MHS831]

WANT MORE RADICAL INTEL?  What would you say if I told you that there will be 2 QBs taken in the top 5, and one of them is not Sanders? 

That's right.  I have spoken.

Here is my take on this and it has changed a bit since starting this thread--and I assume the boards in early February are laughable when late April rolls around--so without further ado....

I think there is a Brock Purdy or two or three in this draft---which makes drafting a high-risk candidate at #1 or #2 overall a big gamble.

My potential Brock Purdys:

1.  Will Howard, Ohio State.  Why is he rated so LOW???? A big, strong-armed QB who can run when needed.  Completion percentage over 73% (good OL, WRs), but when the pressure was at its highest, he ran for 57 yards vs. Notre Dame, completed 17 of 21 passes (81%) for 231 yards and had a QBR of 99.1 in the National Championship game.    At 6' 4" 235, he flashes glimpses of a more accurate (in college) Josh Allen.  I am saying that Will Howard BELONGS in the first round--if not, I have no idea what they use to determine quality at the QB position.

For the season, Howard had the NCAA's highest QBR rating 89.6, ahead of Cam Ward, the second highest QBR rating at 88.4.  Coincidentally, Shedeur Sanders had a 75.5 QBR, 20th overall.

2. Jaxon Dart, Mississippi:  I just don't trust Kiffin QBs--a system qb?  A Corral?  I would take a look at the balls he throws downfield on passing downs and ignore all the rest.  Some scouts have a first round grade on him. Dart had the 4th highest QBR in college football at 86.3--I was surprised by that.

3.  Kurtis Rourke, Indiana:  Yes, he played a soft schedule, but it was a Big 10 schedule and he took a bad team and won games.  He has a lot of experience, good size, a quick release, but a pure pocket passer.  29 TDs, 5 Ints 69%.  Played poorly in loss to Ohio State, and was respectful vs. Notre Dame.  Rourke had the 5th highest QBR rating in college football at 85.1.

4. Quinn Ewers, Texas:  The "Bo Nix" of this year's draft? Probably not.  Experienced, a rep for being injured a lot, he had 53 TDs and 18 picks the past 2 seasons. Not going to beat you with his legs.  Handled the mental pressure of keeping a Manning on the pine, so he is a competitor. Ewers had the 21st highest QBR rating with a 75.4

5. Kyle McCord, Syracuse:  In his last 2 seasons (Ohio State and Syracuse) McCord posted gawdy numbers: 7,949 yards, 58 TDs, and 18 Ints, 66% completion rating.  A pocket passer.  McCord had the 14th highest QBR at 78.6.

 

So how do I rank the QBs this year? 

1.  Will Howard, Ohio State and Cam Ward, Miami.  Will is slightly ahead of Cam in QBR (big 10 schedule vs. ACC) as the #1 rated QB in college football, but he had stud WRs and a solid OL.  Ward did not.  However, most would not believe me if I told you that Will Howard had more rushing yards than Cam Ward.  So what is the difference?   How can you say Ward is to be picked first overall and the National Championship QB with better size, stats and demonstrated excellence on the biggest stage should go in the second or third round?  Frankly, I think Howard will climb boards and by the end of April, he will be a first rounder. I think he will be the better pro. If not, what criteria are they going by?  (I am sure some will argue against my point here--but please, bring facts, data, and solid information.  Your opinion is not a stamp of correctness).

3.  Shedeur Sanders.  He is a good pocket passer and makes sound decisions when he has a pocket.  This season, he had no pocket.  He needs protection.  A good fit would be the Raiders (offensive line is solid). I don't really have him that far below Cam and Will, but it is hard to gauge his ability when being sacked and pressured. 

4.  Jaxon Dart.  He has the fourth highest QBR rating which puts him a notch below Howard and Ward.  Is it the system?  Does he have the arm strength?  I do not see first round, but a team in the second may trade up in the back of the first round to get that fifth year option.

Edited February 2 by MHS831

[imminent rogaine]

The more QBs the better. Hopefully someone will want to trade up to our spot. In the very least, it will push down the other players. 

[MHS831]

14 hours ago, imminent rogaine said:

The more QBs the better. Hopefully someone will want to trade up to our spot. In the very least, it will push down the other players. 

Predicting that Will Howard will be top 10 is a reach-I get it--but how can you have the highest QBR in the nation, complete over 70% or your passes for the year, demonstrate the ability to run from the pocket more than the top 2 QBs, win the national championship game, demonstrating excellence in passing (over 80%)  and rushing (over 50 yards) and not be close to the others in the QB rankings?  He is about the same size as Josh Allen, and he can run the ball like him--just was not asked to as much.  He is more accurate at this stage of his career.  I am scratching my head, wondering, "Why are the "experts" right now not talking about him in the first round conversation?  Frankly, he is my QB1 right now. He needs weapons and an OL, but all QBs do.  If these numbers do not make you equal to Ward and Sanders, what criteria are they using to measure QBs?  I seriously do not get it.  Sanders struggled this year and Ward had a great season at Miami--second only to Will Howard.  What measures are they using?  

Edited February 3 by MHS831

[Jon Snow]

11 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

Predicting that Will Howard will be top 10 is a reach-I get it--but how can you have the highest QBR in the nation, complete over 70% or your passes for the year, demonstrate the ability to run from the pocket more than the top 2 QBs, win the national championship game, demonstrating excellence in passing (over 80%)  and rushing (over 50 yards) and not be close to the others in the QB rankings?  He is about the same size as Josh Allen, and he can run the ball like him--just was not asked to as much.  He is more accurate at this stage of his career.  I am scratching my head, wondering, "Why are the "experts" right now not talking about him in the first round conversation?  Frankly, he is my QB1 right now. He needs weapons and an OL, but all QBs do.  If these numbers do not make you equal to Ward and Sanders, what criteria are they using to measure QBs?  I seriously do not get it.  Sanders struggled this year and Ward had a great season at Miami--second only to Will Howard.  What measures are they using?  

I'm not so sure the talking heads have read this class correctly.  The same guys that rank these guys turn around and mock them in a completely different order. Their top 10 are not drafted in the top 10. The only player ranked in the top 10 and projected to be taken in the top 10 is Graham. Everyone else is being overdrafted "according to them". 

[MHS831]

1 minute ago, Jon Snow said:

I'm not so sure the talking heads have read this class correctly.  The same guys that rank these guys turn around and mock them in a completely different order. Their top 10 are not drafted in the top 10. The only player ranked in the top 10 and projected to be taken in the top 10 is Graham. Everyone else is being overdrafted "according to them". 

I think they are all parroting what others are saying--like a bunch of penguins scared to be the first to jump in the water.  I have noticed what you are saying.  When I looked into Will Howard (after being thoroughly impressed with him in the playoffs) I was like, "How is Sanders rated higher than this guy?"  All hype.  By draft day, Howard has to be drafted in the first. If I am a GM and I need a QB, how do you pass the player with his credentials?  I may be missing something, probably am, I may be sitting stupid and confident--but I would draft him in round 1.  Watch him rise up boards over the next 8 weeks. 

[Jon Snow]

56 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

I think they are all parroting what others are saying--like a bunch of penguins scared to be the first to jump in the water.  I have noticed what you are saying.  When I looked into Will Howard (after being thoroughly impressed with him in the playoffs) I was like, "How is Sanders rated higher than this guy?"  All hype.  By draft day, Howard has to be drafted in the first. If I am a GM and I need a QB, how do you pass the player with his credentials?  I may be missing something, probably am, I may be sitting stupid and confident--but I would draft him in round 1.  Watch him rise up boards over the next 8 weeks. 

Teams boards are nothing like these ranking or mocks. Most are basing theirs on teams perceived needs and nothing else.

In the past the Panthers I've read ranked positions and players in those positions as they saw them. From there they tried to see who may be available around their picks. Their rankings hasn't worked out so well for them.

[45catfan]

McCord is my dark horse for best QB in this class.  He would be a day 3 in an average draft class, but since this one is particularly bad, he could go as high as the 2nd round.  So much so, I've given up on a day 3 flyer pick for him because he won't be there.

[LinvilleGorge]

I have no idea how anyone could watch Cam Ward and say that guy isn't a 1st round pick. He's a 1st rounder in any draft class.