No nice toys

[Stingray3030]

21 minutes ago, pantherclaw said:

I really don't see anybody that any team is going to go crazy for to trade up for. Lord knows I've been wrong before,  although i just don't see it.

I could definitely see someone wanting to move up from 12-20 to our spot for some of these guys.  That isn't a huge move for some of them.  Guys like Warren, Burden, TMac, Pearce, Starks, Jeanty, Green, Dart all could be luring a trade.  I'm not saying I would do it, but it has happened plenty of times before to justify the possibility.

[Stingray3030]

3 hours ago, SmittysLawnGuy said:

Do a couple of realistic trade back options in the simulators. You always end up happier than sticking and picking.  Not to mention you usually end up still with the guy you wanted. We're just in a bad spot.

Perfect example - I can get this on a regular on multiple simulators (take them for what they are worth of course).  If this was the first 4 picks for us I am more than thrilled:

[shaqattaq]

On 3/2/2025 at 7:33 AM, chknwing said:

If a QB is there, we can get a decent haul

One of the top 2 OT's should still be there, so that could be a trade option.

[Jon Snow]

1 minute ago, shaqattaq said:

One of the top 2 OT's should still be there, so that could be a trade option.

I'm guessing it would take Howard falling to 8 for that to happen. Ideally 3 qb's, Carter, Howard, Hunter and Warren are off the board when we pick. I'm hoping the Jags take Warren. That could put Graham into play. But if only 1 qb goes top 10 we may be left with a lot of maybe good talent.

[shaqattaq]

On 3/2/2025 at 12:46 PM, toldozer said:

Some one may want to trade up to take the 3rd qb ahead of the saints. I could see the seahawks having some interest 

Their 18 and 82 for our 8? Maybe.

Their 18 and 50? Hell yeah!!

[panthers55]

10 hours ago, Stingray3030 said:

That's actually not necessary though - that is exactly my point.  I'm not assuming they are great - just above average.  If we go after a top WR or TE we will see a minor/decent upgrade to our WAR.  But our defensive deficiencies are so bad that if we draft 3 defenders in the top 54 and they are just very good we will see a very significant improvement in our WAR.  Improving our offense will get us 2-3 more points per game, improving the defense saves us 8-10 a game.  The opportunity is that different.  Scoring 30 points a game doesn't matter when your defense gives up 31/game. 

Detroit was the only team in the NFL who average more than 31/game on offense.  We aren't 2-3 players away from that on our offense.  We are easily 3 players away from 23/game given up which would take us from last in the league to just below average.

Why assume above average? With the rookie wall which is real, common injuries which have befallen just about all our rookies, and the common refrain it takes at least half a season to let the game slow down and learn proper technique the likely of any rookie starting all year let alone playing above average is small. Look at our past top ten draft picks and tell me who was above average out of the gate. Even Kueckly started out on the weak side and needed time to learn the game. For every rookie signing that produces a stsrter right away,  I can shpw you a dozen who struggle.  And how good have we been picking instant starters in the second or third round. Not very. All your assumptions belie reality which is if you want starters you pick up vets. If a rookie starts and plays well it is a bonus and unexpected. When has it been different for us? Maybe Cam in 2011....

[Stingray3030]

11 hours ago, panthers55 said:

Why assume above average? With the rookie wall which is real, common injuries which have befallen just about all our rookies, and the common refrain it takes at least half a season to let the game slow down and learn proper technique the likely of any rookie starting all year let alone playing above average is small. Look at our past top ten draft picks and tell me who was above average out of the gate. Even Kueckly started out on the weak side and needed time to learn the game. For every rookie signing that produces a stsrter right away,  I can shpw you a dozen who struggle.  And how good have we been picking instant starters in the second or third round. Not very. All your assumptions belie reality which is if you want starters you pick up vets. If a rookie starts and plays well it is a bonus and unexpected. When has it been different for us? Maybe Cam in 2011....

First off let me clearly state what I said so you understand my response.  I said we are 3 players away from cutting our scoring given up by 8 points.  That means I believe we are 3 players away from being 18th in the league in scoring given up.  That isn't amazing, but enough to get to the playoffs.  

A second statement was that I am assuming they are above average - that they will be very good.  You are taking that to mean Day 1 starters which is not what I said.  If we draft 3 guys who are above average - meaning above average rookies - then we should easily shave off those points.  Our defense last year was filled with 5-8 practice squad level talents nearly every game.  You saw the huge difference when DJ Wonnum came back - night and day - and that was 1 guy!  All of a sudden Clowney and Jewell started opening up and making plays because the defense had another concern and couldn't cover with doubles.

3 above average rookies will be added to a top 3 DL in Derrick Brown.  They will also be added to 1-2 high end FA's on the defensive side of the ball.  So yeah I believe we are 3 above average rookies away from the Playoffs, which is only 5 more wins than we had with the worst defense in NFL history.  This also includes Legette, Coker, Sanders, and Wallace with 1 full year's experience under their belts.  And by the way last draft there were 40 players in the first 2 rounds who saw at least 10 starts their rookie year (making a few assumptions for injuries).  The 4 guys I mentioned were all starters the 2nd half of the year, so we had 4 above average rookies in a single draft.  It isn't unrealistic - and we don't need Day 1 starters to make that much impact when we were so incredibly bad last year.  That is my point.  Last year was hands down the best offseason this franchise has ever seen - you will see the benefit of that this year if we get what I stated above as assumptions which isn't unrealistic.

[panthers55]

1 hour ago, Stingray3030 said:

First off let me clearly state what I said so you understand my response.  I said we are 3 players away from cutting our scoring given up by 8 points.  That means I believe we are 3 players away from being 18th in the league in scoring given up.  That isn't amazing, but enough to get to the playoffs.  

A second statement was that I am assuming they are above average - that they will be very good.  You are taking that to mean Day 1 starters which is not what I said.  If we draft 3 guys who are above average - meaning above average rookies - then we should easily shave off those points.  Our defense last year was filled with 5-8 practice squad level talents nearly every game.  You saw the huge difference when DJ Wonnum came back - night and day - and that was 1 guy!  All of a sudden Clowney and Jewell started opening up and making plays because the defense had another concern and couldn't cover with doubles.

3 above average rookies will be added to a top 3 DL in Derrick Brown.  They will also be added to 1-2 high end FA's on the defensive side of the ball.  So yeah I believe we are 3 above average rookies away from the Playoffs, which is only 5 more wins than we had with the worst defense in NFL history.  This also includes Legette, Coker, Sanders, and Wallace with 1 full year's experience under their belts.  And by the way last draft there were 40 players in the first 2 rounds who saw at least 10 starts their rookie year (making a few assumptions for injuries).  The 4 guys I mentioned were all starters the 2nd half of the year, so we had 4 above average rookies in a single draft.  It isn't unrealistic - and we don't need Day 1 starters to make that much impact when we were so incredibly bad last year.  That is my point.  Last year was hands down the best offseason this franchise has ever seen - you will see the benefit of that this year if we get what I stated above as assumptions which isn't unrealistic.

Your assumptions about rookies coming in above average is unrealistic and not supported by our history. When have we had 3 rookies drafted who were above average out of the gate. Even in 2001 which may be our best draft ever, Morgan, Smith and  Jenkins were not all above average as rookies.  Secondly you admit that rookies don't shine until well into the year if at all. And no all 4 of them were not above average. starters in the second half when they were injured or struggled like Legette to catch the ball. He surely wasnt even average. Coker played due to injuries to Theilen for example. Otherwise he would have been a role player.  Also how many guys started on the defense last year  who won't be here this year?

I agree the offense will be better when we add an RB and a upgrade at TE along with another wide receiver. But I don't agree that rookies will take us to the playoffs. Vets with experience will, with rookies being backups until they are ready to play. If a team has multiple rookies starting and they make the playoffs it would be rare to start with and likely because they have solid vets and and a quality quarterback. If you are starting multiple rookies you are either really bad, have a dearth of talent or both. I think the playoffs could be possible if Bryce picks up where he left off and our defense is much better. But no I don't want any rookie starting if we can avoid it. I like them as rotational players until they are ready to start. I will agree with the premise that with a lot of work, upgrade in talent, lack of injuries and some good luck we could be a playoff team but we better have huge free  agency success as well as a solid draft to get there