Other quarterbacks need not apply

[Mr. Scot]

Conventional wisdom is that if he should declare for the draft and the Carolina Panthers have the #1 pick - or the #2 pick with Detroit having the #1 - then Andrew Luck will be on his way to Charlotte, regardless of who the Panthers head coach may be.

But if Luck winds up elsewhere, or the team gets an offer it can't refuse to trade down, we can still get one of the other big name QBs in the draft. Right?

Honestly, I wouldn't bet on it :nonod:

You have to understand, the team hasn't given up on Jimmy Clausen. Thus, it's not that Luck is the best QB in a draft where we're looking to draft one.

It's that Luck is a special player, a guy the scouts are raving over in a way they have for no one since Peyton. He's being called one of those "once-in-a-lifetime" guys, the kind of franchise QB you simply can't pass up (if you don't already have a franchise QB in place). Clausen is potentially a good QB, maybe even a very good one, but he's not what Luck might be.

And with apologies to Mallett, Locker and Newton fans, neither is anyone else in this draft.

If Luck isn't the pick, then don't expect the Panthers to take a QB with their first pick, or another high pick. Instead, they'll likely wait another year to see how Jimmy Clausen develops. If he doesn't, then QB might be a high pick or a free agent target the following year.

In this year's draft though, I just don't see the team bailing on Clausen for anyone other than Luck.

[rayzor]

agreed. it's not that they think that clausen won't be a good QB....they wouldn't have drafted him if they didn't think he was. it's just that luck is better. if clausen waited to come out this year and luck decided to as well...luck would still easily be the best QB in the draft. that wouldn't be the thoughts of a handful of people at ESPN and mindless drones who go to ESPN to know how to think. it's a consensus among pro scouts and professional draftniks around the country.

now with clausen...he fell into their laps and it was a good choice, likely to be the best QB they could have had and probably better than most QBs that are in the upcoming draft. the only 2 i would put ahead of him are luck and newton...in that order.

people will (and have) looked at us drafting luck and said, "so, if luck doesn't pan out are we going to draft another QB in 2012?" or "peyton had a bad rookie year, should the colts have drafted another QB the next year?" to both questions the answer is a resounding no. the difference being, we only gave up a mid 2nd rounder and are only obligated to pay him $2.5mil. the offense isn't built around him. he isn't entrenched in the role. he hasn't exactly established himself as the franchise QB or the leader of the team.

"but...but...who could win with this offense and this playcalling?" doesn't matter. sure, it sucks for clausen that he got stuck in such a bad situation with bad playcalling. it doesn't suck for the panthers, though. they'll end up with a better QB.

the only way that we could pass up on luck if we have the #1 pick is if there were absolutely NO question about his ability to step up and lead this team. there would have to be no doubt whatsoever that clausen was the best choice for this team. there are questions and there are doubts. you can't take a "wait and see if he pans out" approach here because you can't pass up on a talent like luck.

imo, the ideal scenario would be to trade clausen and get back into the 2nd round. there are going to be quite a few teams looking to improve at QB and clausen could fit the bill.

[rayzor]

oh...a couple things...

1) i do fear that if detroit got the #1 pick, they could easily trade it away to some other team and that would screw our chances of getting him.

2) if we didn't get luck for some reason, if newton is available he would be my next choice. beyond that we stick with clausen.

3) no matter what we do, whether sticking with clausen or drafting luck, we have to pick up a vet QB with a good bit of playing experience for that extra set of knowledgeable eyes on the field. a young QB needs to have someone like that available. he doesn't need to be someone that starts, btw...he just has to be able to fill in b/c of injury.

[Cavscout]

oh...a couple things...

1) i do fear that if detroit got the #1 pick, they could easily trade it away to some other team and that would screw our chances of getting him.

2) if we didn't get luck for some reason, if newton is available he would be my next choice. beyond that we stick with clausen.

3) no matter what we do, whether sticking with clausen or drafting luck, we have to pick up a vet QB with a good bit of playing experience for that extra set of knowledgeable eyes on the field. a young QB needs to have someone like that available. he doesn't need to be someone that starts, btw...he just has to be able to fill in b/c of injury.

While I agree that Detroit would most likely trade the pick and we would therefore miss out on Luck and that we need a vet QB to help with either Luck's or Clausen's development, I don't see the Panthers taking Newton. To me, he doesn't seem like the Panthers type of player having legal issues while at UF. He is a great talent though. I wouldn't mind seeing the Panthers getting McNabb for a year or two but he would probably would want to go somewhere that he could start...like Arizona...rather than coming here as a veteran backup.

[Catalyst]

I'm more worried about Arizona than anyone. If we end up #2 with the Lions picking first we're going to have to trade up ourselves to get Luck because Arizona needs a QB BADLY and don't even have someone like Clausen to say 'maybe' about.

They'll throw every draft pick you can imagine at Detroit and since we don't have a 2nd we likely won't be able to match their offer.

Basically, we need to be the worst team record-wise to get Luck. Otherwise we won't get him, and I agree with the thread title here; as much as I like Newton, Luck is the only QB I can see us taking. If we end up picking 2nd or 3rd it's GOT to be A.J. Green.

[frash.exe]

oh...a couple things...

1) i do fear that if detroit got the #1 pick, they could easily trade it away to some other team and that would screw our chances of getting him.

if we don't end up the no.1 pick, the bills will either be the no.1 pick or trade up to no.1 and leapfrog us so they can get luck. this wouldn't make losing out this season such a bad thing 3 years down the road. even if we're no.1 the bills might even offer some compensation to trade up, but i wouldn't dare take it. I think if you're the no.1 pick and don't have a QB that has proven something, you just sit there and take luck. no other considerations.

[rayzor]

yeah, the cards, bills, 49ers, even the bengals are all at the bottom and all have serious needs at QB. if the lions have that #1...one of those teams are going to be willing to bend over a barrel for luck.

trading up to the #1 pick doesn't happen very often at all, but this year is very much a possibility.

i agree 100%, unless you have a proven QB that you have no doubts about...you take luck.

[firstdayfan]

Mr Scott you are pretty good at research and putting numbers together....and it may be something I work on today. I was wondering how many successful QB's come out of the second round.

Probably the most successful was drew brees but I cant think of anyone else that has been overly successful. Guys like trent Edwards(i think second rounder) and you could even throw out Kevin Kolb as a guy who hasn't been a success.

My point is that franchise QB's generally come out of the first round (exception Tom Brady) and I think people put too much pressure on clausen bc we hadn't picked a QB so high since Kerry Collins. If we can get luck I would be absolutely thrilled bc I think he is a can't miss prospect...however if we are sitting there at pick 6 or so and certain guys are off the board I personally would love if the panthers to snag Newton. I saw enough yesterday to realize he has amazing potential and could also be that franchise QB that we desperately need.

[Mr. Scot]

oh...a couple things...

1) i do fear that if detroit got the #1 pick, they could easily trade it away to some other team and that would screw our chances of getting him.

2) if we didn't get luck for some reason, if newton is available he would be my next choice. beyond that we stick with clausen.

3) no matter what we do, whether sticking with clausen or drafting luck, we have to pick up a vet QB with a good bit of playing experience for that extra set of knowledgeable eyes on the field. a young QB needs to have someone like that available. he doesn't need to be someone that starts, btw...he just has to be able to fill in b/c of injury.

I'd agree Detroit trading the pick is a concern. I'd much rather we have the #1 so there'd be no such worries.

[panther4life]

the bengals are the biggest threat at getting the # 1 pick not the lions

[Mr. Scot]

the bengals are the biggest threat at getting the # 1 pick not the lions

Maybe by year's end, but not at the moment.

http://www.nfl.com/standings?category=league

[panther4life]

The tiebreaker for the draft is different than what the overall standings are showing.

Tiebreaker for teams with same record is strength of schedule and i'm pretty sure the bengals strength is weaker

[Cavscout]

If Luck isn't the pick, then don't expect the Panthers to take a QB with their first pick, or another high pick. Instead, they'll likely wait another year to see how Jimmy Clausen develops. If he doesn't, then QB might be a high pick or a free agent target the following year.

If Clausen continues to play this poorly without any improvement, do you really think that Mallett or Locker wouldn't be in their sights as well?

[Woodie]

The tiebreaker for the draft is different than what the overall standings are showing.

Tiebreaker for teams with same record is strength of schedule and i'm pretty sure the bengals strength is weaker

Here, this gives a better breakdown, including each team's win-loss%. They update it every week after the MNF game.

http://www.gbnreport.com/weeklydraftorder.html