Panthers decision to pass on Walker

[kungfoodude]

1 hour ago, CPF4LIFE said:

Based off what exactly??

Seeing him in the limited time that I have. I am just not convinced he is going to develop the way we want him to.

To be fair, I didn't view him as a high caliber prospect in the first place. 

I am fine being wrong about it, all the better for us. I do think the selection of Tmac at 8 says quite a bit about how they view him too.

[SOJA]

3 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Yeah, I think he's gonna be a player I'm just not sure if he'll ever be the type of player you're hoping for out of a top 10 pick.

good way to put it 

[tukafan21]

6 hours ago, CPcavedweller said:

We didn’t need T-Mac when we have Legette though. We needed a guy like Golden to learn behind Theilen for a year and become the premier route runner in the NFL with world class speed. 
 

But hey…I wasn’t in the room. 

I mean this as no slight to XL, as I personally do still love his potential as a high end #2 if he can cut back on the drops and crisp up his routes a bit, as he has some elite physical traits for sure.

But XL's ceiling is probably lower than T-Mac's floor, so you just can't say we didn't need T-Mac because we have XL, that's just crazy talk.

[jfra78]

8 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

I mean this as no slight to XL, as I personally do still love his potential as a high end #2 if he can cut back on the drops and crisp up his routes a bit, as he has some elite physical traits for sure.

But XL's ceiling is probably lower than T-Mac's floor, so you just can't say we didn't need T-Mac because we have XL, that's just crazy talk.

Not true by a longshot, XL ceiling is higher but floor is lower.  I know you can't believe it, but tet is FAR from perfect.  

[carpanfan96]

50 minutes ago, jfra78 said:

Not true by a longshot, XL ceiling is higher but floor is lower.  I know you can't believe it, but tet is FAR from perfect.  

I'm waiting to watch practice and see if they press Tet with Horn at all or play horn off of him. If they press Tet with Horn, Tet won't get better at all because he'll be locked down all practice.

 

Tet has huge issues getting his release against man, forget about press man. PFF had his man open % at 52 and that goes even lower if pressed at the line. 

 

If you move him around pre snap, that fixes that issue but that's a lot of finessing for a top 10 pick in an offense that struggles against man coverage but is pretty good against zone. 

[jfra78]

Just now, carpanfan96 said:

I'm waiting to watch practice and see if they press Tet with Horn at all or play horn off of him. If they press Tet with Horn, Tet won't get better at all because he'll be locked down all practice.

 

Tet has huge issues getting his release against man, forget about press man. PFF had his man open % at 52 and that goes even lower if pressed at the line. 

 

If you move him around pre snap, that fixes that issue but that's a lot of finessing for a top 10 pick in an offense that struggles against man coverage but is pretty good against zone. 

This is why Tet is a Z or slot in the NFL and not an X.  XL is the only true X we have and Coker can play X as well.  This is why it's funny when people think XL won't get on the field.  X plays up on the line of scrimmage, usually you put your bigger guys there.  XL will always be bigger, faster, and stronger than tet, and nothing tet can do to change that

[tukafan21]

2 hours ago, jfra78 said:

Not true by a longshot, XL ceiling is higher but floor is lower.  I know you can't believe it, but tet is FAR from perfect.  

I never said he was perfect, but his floor is still as a low end #1, I honestly think his floor in this league is around the 25th best WR in the league, and that's if he doesn't improve on anything but just continues to be the player he is right now.  

So I really hope you just mean XL's ceiling is higher than T-Mac's floor since I was saying it wasn't.

Because there literally just isn't any world where XL's ceiling is higher than T-Mac's ceiling, it would be one of the more asinine statements to say XL's was higher.

[tukafan21]

1 hour ago, carpanfan96 said:

I'm waiting to watch practice and see if they press Tet with Horn at all or play horn off of him. If they press Tet with Horn, Tet won't get better at all because he'll be locked down all practice.

 

Tet has huge issues getting his release against man, forget about press man. PFF had his man open % at 52 and that goes even lower if pressed at the line. 

 

If you move him around pre snap, that fixes that issue but that's a lot of finessing for a top 10 pick in an offense that struggles against man coverage but is pretty good against zone. 

And as I asked this again before, what goes into PFF's man open %, as I know you've brought that stat up before.

Is that just the number of routes he gets open at any point during the route, or is it calculated on targets and if he was open when the ball got to him.

Because like I pointed out so many times in the lead up to the draft, a big reason it was harder for him to get separation against man was because he not only had his man on him, but he was double or triple teamed on the majority of his routes this past year.  Just because of that alone, it was easier for him to get open against zone coverage where he could find holes and sit in them.

Also, again, as been discussed so many times, his QB's play this year was awful, and lots of times his contested catches were due to him not delivering the ball on time when T-Mac got open.  Or just times he got open but wasn't targeted for whatever reason.

So just using that stat as a way to say he struggles to get open against man is more likely than not, disingenuous.

Hell, it's a PFF stat that you're using against him, yet at the same time, PFF absolutely loves him, he was their 4th overall player.  

I posted this clip on here a week or so ago of the T-Mac vs Hunter game in 2023, where the anti T-Mac guys like to say Hunter shut him down.  But numerous times in this video you see T-Mac create tons of separation from Hunter but the ball wasn't thrown his way, plus a clear PI that wasn't called (and the one that was).

https://x.com/4MR_Fetti/status/1918262063660454227

The "he can't separate" narrative is way overblown and become something more myth than reality.  No, he's not an elite separator like some of the quick twitch WRs, but he's so much better than the haters here like to say.

[ForJimmy]

Come on guys… TMac has the higher floor and ceiling. It’s why one was a top 10 pick and the other barely made it in the first round. XL is still huge and explosive and probably plays better at the Z. 

[carpanfan96]

5 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

And as I asked this again before, what goes into PFF's man open %, as I know you've brought that stat up before.

Is that just the number of routes he gets open at any point during the route, or is it calculated on targets and if he was open when the ball got to him.

Because like I pointed out so many times in the lead up to the draft, a big reason it was harder for him to get separation against man was because he not only had his man on him, but he was double or triple teamed on the majority of his routes this past year.  Just because of that alone, it was easier for him to get open against zone coverage where he could find holes and sit in them.

Also, again, as been discussed so many times, his QB's play this year was awful, and lots of times his contested catches were due to him not delivering the ball on time when T-Mac got open.  Or just times he got open but wasn't targeted for whatever reason.

So just using that stat as a way to say he struggles to get open against man is more likely than not, disingenuous.

Hell, it's a PFF stat that you're using against him, yet at the same time, PFF absolutely loves him, he was their 4th overall player.  

I posted this clip on here a week or so ago of the T-Mac vs Hunter game in 2023, where the anti T-Mac guys like to say Hunter shut him down.  But numerous times in this video you see T-Mac create tons of separation from Hunter but the ball wasn't thrown his way, plus a clear PI that wasn't called (and the one that was).

https://x.com/4MR_Fetti/status/1918262063660454227

The "he can't separate" narrative is way overblown and become something more myth than reality.  No, he's not an elite separator like some of the quick twitch WRs, but he's so much better than the haters here like to say.

It's based on routes run vs yardage between him and the defender. He point blank didn't get open against man or press man in college. It's not my stat but it was his weakness for anyone that watched his film. 

 

PFF loves him because of jump ball ability and his ability to get open vs zone. Not his route running vs man coverage or press man coverage. 

 

I use the stat because it matches what you see on film vs press and man coverage. NFL teams are going to attack his weakness against press and he's going to see a ton of it. 

Edited 17 hours ago by carpanfan96

[ForJimmy]

3 minutes ago, carpanfan96 said:

It's based on routes run vs yardage between him and the defender. He point blank didn't get open against man or press man in college. It's not my stat but it was his weakness for anyone that watched his film. 

Against man? He put up two statistically great seasons and you are telling me all teams had to do was play man against him? 
McMillan’s statistical profile has very few gaps when it comes to on-field production. PFF gave him an 85.8 total receiving grade and an 89.1 grade versus man coverage. In particular, McMillan’s success rate versus man coverage should be a big boon for the offense that had a hard time finding options when the opposing defense lined up to play press man.

https://sports.yahoo.com/article/tetairoa-mcmillan-team-fit-projections-020248060.html

[carpanfan96]

2 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

Against man? He put up two statistically great seasons and you are telling me all teams had to do was play man against him? 
McMillan’s statistical profile has very few gaps when it comes to on-field production. PFF gave him an 85.8 total receiving grade and an 89.1 grade versus man coverage. In particular, McMillan’s success rate versus man coverage should be a big boon for the offense that had a hard time finding options when the opposing defense lined up to play press man.

https://sports.yahoo.com/article/tetairoa-mcmillan-team-fit-projections-020248060.html

Yes his PFF grade against man was 52% open rate, 94% against zone. He did worse in man when pressed. 

[ForJimmy]

Just now, carpanfan96 said:

Yes his PFF grade against man was 52% open rate, 94% against zone. He did worse in man when pressed. 

Open rate? His actual PFF grade against man was 89.1 according to the article I showed you. So either teams aren’t pressing him very often (makes sense due to the talent gap between him and most defenders) or he is just schooling them while being “covered” or not open against man defense. I saw Hunter pressing him in their 2023 matchup and it was literally just Hunter holding him to keep up and he got called on it several times. 

[carpanfan96]

3 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

Open rate? His actual PFF grade against man was 89.1 according to the article I showed you. So either teams aren’t pressing him very often (makes sense due to the talent gap between him and most defenders) or he is just schooling them while being “covered” or not open against man defense. I saw Hunter pressing him in their 2023 matchup and it was literally just Hunter holding him to keep up and he got called on it several times. 

His overall grade with PFF was 84.8 and I know his zone open rate was 94%. You tell me what knocked his overall score down if his man score was 89 and his zone score was higher.... 

 

 

But I'll answer and I don't know where yahoo got that number as he had a 62% against single coverage and it wasn't no where close to 89%> 

"Over the past two years, McMillan was 74th-percentile in separation percentile, per PFF. This is where things get interesting. Against zone coverage, McMillan was charted as open on a ludicrous 94.3% of his targets. 

 

Against man, that plummeted all the way to 53.6%. McMillan finished in the 39th-percentile in separation percentage in single-coverage man."

 

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-tetairoa-mcmillan-wr1-2025-nfl-draft

 

https://www.fantasylife.com/articles/nfl-draft/2025-nfl-draft-wide-receiver-rankings-tetairoa-mcmillan-matthew-golden-and-more#:~:text=Over the past two years,rate against single-man coverage.