Bryce's Achilles Heel Is Not What You Think It Is

[strato]

35 minutes ago, Seltzer said:

When did he get benched for a Hail Mary pass? WTF are you talking about??!!

Cam did for Heinicke after his shoulder injury.

Do people on this board even watch the games?

I know your new message board will be top notch. 

[Shotgun]

56 minutes ago, Seltzer said:

When did he get benched for a Hail Mary pass? WTF are you talking about??!!

Cam did for Heinicke after his shoulder injury.

Do people on this board even watch the games?

His first season. I saw it with my own eyes, others saw it too. Old man Dalton had to come in to make the throw. I watch every game. You must of just missed it. He had another chance a couple of weeks ago from the 50 and didn't even attempt to throw it to the endzone....cause he cant. 

[fieryprophet]

This "noodle arm" characterization just baffles me. There's way more involved in a successful downfield passing attack than simple air yards.

Let's take two stat-lines for throws of 40+ air yards (no YAC) from the last 3 seasons:

5/29 (17%) for 3 TDs and 2 INTs

1/9 (11%) for 1 TD

So with three times the number of attempts, you net +6% completion percentage, the same TD rate, and 2 arm punt INTs to boot. The first player is Mahomes, the second is Bryce. Clearly Bryce attempts these throws at a much lower rate, but his success rate is quite similar to one of the most talented downfield throwers of all time.

The takeaway isn't that Bryce is Mahomes-lite (if he was his usage rate for these would be much higher) but that these throws by their very nature are extremely difficult, very scheme-specific, and even an elite thrower can have wildly differing success rates season by season.

And before we get into the complaints of cherry-picking, this is far more substantial information than the various insinuations that Bryce struggles to even get the ball 20 yards downfield, much less 40+.

And the wildest part of this is that every time Mahomes threw a bomb over the last 3 season, 83% of the time the end result was failure, yet many Chiefs fans complain that he isn't taking even more shots downfield.

Edited 1 hour ago by fieryprophet

[SmokinwithWilly]

18 minutes ago, fieryprophet said:

This "noodle arm" characterization just baffles me. There's way more involved in a successful downfield passing attack than simple air yards.

Let's take two stat-lines for throws of 40+ air yards (no YAC) from the last 3 seasons:

5/29 (17%) for 3 TDs and 2 INTs

1/9 (11%) for 1 TD

So with three times the number of attempts, you net +6% completion percentage, the same TD rate, and 2 arm punt INTs to boot. The first player is Mahomes, the second is Bryce. Clearly Bryce attempts these throws at a much lower rate, but his success rate is quite similar to one of the most talented downfield throwers of all time.

The takeaway isn't that Bryce is Mahomes-lite (if he was his usage rate for these would be much higher) but that these throws by their very nature are extremely difficult, very scheme-specific, and even an elite thrower can have wildly differing success rates season by season.

And before we get into the complaints of cherry-picking, this is far more substantial information than the various insinuations that Bryce struggles to even get the ball 20 yards downfield, much less 40+.

And the wildest part of this is that every time Mahomes threw a bomb over the last 3 season, 83% of the time the end result was failure, yet many Chiefs fans complain that he isn't taking even more shots downfield.

I get your point about varying reasons about why you throw the deep ball, but the frequency is a problem. Mahomes is making that throw at a rate of a little less than 1 per game. It's a legitimate chance that a defense is going to see it at some point. A defense has to respect that part of the offense. Bryce is making that throw once every 3 plus games. That deep ball pass is statistically not a risk. It allows defenses to cheat. They don't have to respect the deep ball because we don't throw it. Whether that's Bryce or DC or any other combination of reasons, that's a problem. It has to be part of the arsenal regularly so defenses are forced to respect that possibility. 

[*FreeFua*]

29 minutes ago, fieryprophet said:

This "noodle arm" characterization just baffles me. There's way more involved in a successful downfield passing attack than simple air yards.

Let's take two stat-lines for throws of 40+ air yards (no YAC) from the last 3 seasons:

5/29 (17%) for 3 TDs and 2 INTs

1/9 (11%) for 1 TD

So with three times the number of attempts, you net +6% completion percentage, the same TD rate, and 2 arm punt INTs to boot. The first player is Mahomes, the second is Bryce. Clearly Bryce attempts these throws at a much lower rate, but his success rate is quite similar to one of the most talented downfield throwers of all time.

The takeaway isn't that Bryce is Mahomes-lite (if he was his usage rate for these would be much higher) but that these throws by their very nature are extremely difficult, very scheme-specific, and even an elite thrower can have wildly differing success rates season by season.

And before we get into the complaints of cherry-picking, this is far more substantial information than the various insinuations that Bryce struggles to even get the ball 20 yards downfield, much less 40+.

And the wildest part of this is that every time Mahomes threw a bomb over the last 3 season, 83% of the time the end result was failure, yet many Chiefs fans complain that he isn't taking even more shots downfield.

I’d love to see the Panthers give Bryce a legitimate deep threat like he had at Bama with Jamo or even Burton tbh

Bryce hasn’t had that here yet 

[TD alt]

9 hours ago, strato said:

I see a bit of a ‘you Bryce doubters just don’t understand’ condescension and not just from one person. 

Yep, it's somewhat hypocritical of them, because they're doing the same thing as everyone else.

[strato]

It is as much about forcing the defense to defend the whole field as anything else. The success rate is less important. It is nice when you hook up but it has much value as a threat. They have to see you do it to believe you will do it. 

As far the frequency, the player transcends three play callers, multiple staffs, with pretty much the same frequency. It doesn’t get called. 
All you really have to do to see it is look at the week three games of 2023 and 2024 with Dalton under center. Just watch. That’s all. You don’t need stats. If you can’t see it, I don’t think you want to see it. 

[TD alt]

1 hour ago, Shotgun said:

His first season. I saw it with my own eyes, others saw it too. Old man Dalton had to come in to make the throw. I watch every game. You must of just missed it. He had another chance a couple of weeks ago from the 50 and didn't even attempt to throw it to the endzone....cause he cant. 

I guess he didn't watch that game...

[mrBdawg]

10 hours ago, CPF4LIFE said:

The sideline throw to Horn last Sunday would have been a TD if horn didn't have to almost completely stop on his route to catch it. It’s not soley based off the fact  that the ball got there, it’s the fact that receivers have to constantly adjust on routes to make these catches. He has also made other similar throws this season already. You are either blind to it or not truly paying attention to what you are watching.

That was an accuracy issue not an arm strength issue. It was a 35 yard pass.

He hit thielen on the money with a 50 yard deep ball for touchdown against Tampa bay last year 

 

[mrBdawg]

25 minutes ago, TD alt said:

I guess he didn't watch that game...

https://youtube.com/shorts/iBZY75KLCwE?si=UrcgkDeJ2-KBfmHR

[fieryprophet]

41 minutes ago, SmokinwithWilly said:

I get your point about varying reasons about why you throw the deep ball, but the frequency is a problem. Mahomes is making that throw at a rate of a little less than 1 per game. It's a legitimate chance that a defense is going to see it at some point. A defense has to respect that part of the offense. Bryce is making that throw once every 3 plus games. That deep ball pass is statistically not a risk. It allows defenses to cheat. They don't have to respect the deep ball because we don't throw it. Whether that's Bryce or DC or any other combination of reasons, that's a problem. It has to be part of the arsenal regularly so defenses are forced to respect that possibility. 

That falls entirely into the chicken-and-egg of why is he not attempting those throws more frequently: is it because he can't make those throws, or because he isn't asked to make those throws? If the latter, is he  not being asked to make those throws because the coaching staff doesn't believe he can be successful with them, or because they don't believe those types of throws fit their scheme anyways?

We can eliminate option A because he clearly can physically push the ball 40+ yards, successfully or not, or there would be zero attempts of that nature. We have no way of determining which of the two factors are the reason for option B because we don't know what the coaching staff's ultimate assessment of both his abilities and of their own conviction about the value of those throws irregardless of player would be.

Again, you will be hard-pressed to find many coaches that will value a play that has an 83% or higher failure rate just to "keep the defense honest" when they have more valuable and consistent options at their disposal. But the core of my argument is that it's not like it's an impossibility for Bryce to push the ball downfield, it's simply that it's not the amazing cure-all that some seem to imagine it to be even for elite QBs.