Quarterbacks vs Lottery Tickets

[Mr. Scot]

Quoted rom one of the many Bryce threads...

19 hours ago, Basbear said:

Trey Lance was traded to Dallas before his 4th. 

Zack Wilson got traded to bronco after his 3rd yr for used PB&J sandwich

Josh Rosen was traded in his second year.

Sam darnold was trade here after his 3rd year, if you member Panthers also picked up his 5th yr option as part of the trade.

Kenny Pickett traded after his 3rd year

Mac Jones was traded recently

Justin Fields was traded after his 3rd year 

Wanted to reply to this, but since my answer turned into a go route (i.e. went long) I thought I'd put it in a separate thread.

So here's my take on the names mentioned above...and a few others.

...

Lance was a prototypical "take an athlete and teach him to play quarterback" example who now serves as an example of why that's a bad idea.

Worth remembering that Lance was given to a coach heralded as a QB guru with a friendly system. In the end though, even that potentially ideal situation wasn't enough. And the fact those events were followed up by said guru taking his team to the Super Bowl with a QB who went undrafted helps bolster the folly.of that approach.

But then you have Wilson, an actual quarterback with off the charts passing skill. This guy's sure to succeed, right?

Well...wrong, which demonstrates that even the right skill set doesn't guarantee success. 

Could Wilson have succeeded in a better situation under better coaching? Unknown, but it's a question I find myself asking a lot.

(See also: Levis, Will)

Rosen falls into the Ryan Leaf / Ryan Mallet category, i.e. don't hand the keys to your billion dollar franchise over to a dickhead. Character matters, and not strictly in the 'upright citizen vs thuggish criminal ' way.

(I could add maybe don't draft guys with the first name 'Ryan' unless they went to Harvard, and even then only in the 7th round)

Darnold is another guy who likely could have benefited from a better situation / coaching (see also Carr: David). Heck, it also might have helped to send him to The Wizard and have him ask for "da noiv", or perhaps to Egon Spengler and company to chase away any and all "ghosts".

Sending him to Matt Rhule?

Yeah...definitely not the answer

But hey, at least he's doing better now.

(ttill playoff time, anyway)

Mind you, Drew Brees does serve as proof that guys who land in less than ideal - or just flat out lousy - situations early on can indeed resurrect their careers later on in better surroundings.

Will Darnold go that far? Unknown, but we do know it's possible.

Kenny Pickett (also known by the X-Men moniker 'Littlehand') is that proverbial great college quarterback who for one reason or another just doesn't cut it in the pros. 

(gotta say, feels like the past several drafts have put forth a lot of that particular QB archetype)

Mac Jones could arguably carry this label as well, though I'm waiting to see how things play out in San Francisco.

For now, Jones might be a better example of why you should always be cautious and skeptical of guys from certain systems. Justin Fields is a cell in that spreadsheet column, as is Kyler Murray.

Now I'm sure someone here will mention another certain quarterback we're all quite familiar with as a prime example of this subset too

Fair point, though I think he, Murray and Tagovailoa work better under the heading of "Davids".

What's a David? It's a guy you send to battle against a "Goliath". And by all means, bet on that guy if he's a shepherd. 

If he's a quarterback, though?

Root for him, encourage him, appreciate his courage and be inspired by him...

...but don't draft him. The return on investment might be a great story, but it's not likely to be one that involves championships and rings.

...

Bottom Line?

You've no doubt heard the saying "this ain't rocket science". 

Well, I'd argue saying "this ain't quarterback evaluation" might truly make a better negative metaphorical comparison.

At least with rocket science, it's science. You're working with things that have some level of consistency, even predictability. Stuff like chemistry, physics, metallurgy, etc. Things that have rules.

Human beings? 

Specifically young male athletes with competing amounts of ego and testosterone, who've generally been heavily catered to a lot of their lives, and have now been handed large sums money and a portal to fame...

Yeah, good luck with that  Heck, you might get better odds buying a Powerball ticket, or perhaps playing a roulette wheel at a Vegas casino

(gambling involves risk; please play responsibility; for help with gambling addiction call the Gambling Hotline at 1-800-522-4700)

Edited 5 hours ago by Mr. Scot

[LinvilleGorge]

The NFL is usually good at not making this particular mistake but it also needs to be said that you shouldn't draft guys with no NFL measurables completely relying on them making it up with intangibles.

[Basbear]

I view QBs differently given the last five years. There's even that older obscure fact that if a QB has been with a team over five years and no SB, it will never happen. Now it feels like the league gives QBs three years and if no success, find another QB. 

Teams are in panic mode now too often and QBs......these poor QBs....Sure the money is great, but its unfair what's being asked of them. 

Deal is unless you have Allen, Mahomey, Herbo, Jackson, or Burrow you need to spend resources on finding a QB. Stafford(current MVP?) and others in this group, age and other factors means they are not long term like the first five listed. Wait those three years and you may be able to late pick swap for a QB drafted #2 overall. 

 

[kass]

3 hours ago, Mr. Scot said:

Could Wilson have succeeded in a better situation under better coaching? Unknown, but it's a question I find myself asking a lot.

The real question is how much do Wilson own Dax Milne and the oline for his one standout college season - making Wilson a multi-millionaire. 

The fact he went nr 2 is laughable. 

Neither is NFL talent. 

[CRA]

12 minutes ago, Basbear said:

I view QBs differently given the last five years. There's even that older obscure fact that if a QB has been with a team over five years and no SB, it will never happen. Now it feels like the league gives QBs three years and if no success, find another QB. 

Teams are in panic mode now too often and QBs......these poor QBs....Sure the money is great, but its unfair what's being asked of them. 

Deal is unless you have Allen, Mahomey, Herbo, Jackson, or Burrow you need to spend resources on finding a QB. Stafford(current MVP?) and others in this group, age and other factors means they are not long term like the first five listed. Wait those three years and you may be able to late pick swap for a QB drafted #2 overall. 

 

I mean, but, sounds like an old wives tell.....because it's not true.  Lots of QBs have won their first Super Bowl after 5 years in. 

IMO I think given the simplistic nature NFL offenses have trended.....there is less of a reason to wait around on players.   QBs make easier throws.  Athleticism matters.  You either got it or you don't.  NFL teams aren't going to build and rely on old NFL offenses because no one can step into those offenses.   So you get your answer relatively quick today given what NFL offenses have simplified to. 

[Basbear]

5 minutes ago, CRA said:

I mean, but, sounds like an old wives tell.....because it's not true.  Lots of QBs have won their first Super Bowl after 5 years in. 

IMO I think given the simplistic nature NFL offenses have trended.....there is less of a reason to wait around on players.   QBs make easier throws.  Athleticism matters.  You either got it or you don't.  NFL teams aren't going to build and rely on old NFL offenses because no one can step into those offenses.   So you get your answer relatively quick today given what NFL offenses have simplified to. 

They have with a different team, but that fact remains. It was part of the reason Kalil did his "we're going to the SB". Cam got there in year 5, like the saying stated. 

I do think a duel threat is a huge % of what you need. The problem remains, QB is still played from the pocket. If you cannot avoid pressures, hurries, and sacks...You need those wheels to save you then. Tom Brady was the best in NFL at avoiding pressure, sacks etc and he had no wheels at all. Still its a package deal, cause I point out fields or AR. I think more time is needed and better teachers are as well. Buuuuttttttt the collective bargaining deal limits practices and training. I feel BY would improve if he was allowed to practice more, same goes for many other young QBs.....but there's no time, its right now or "Hey checkout this college QB..."