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Down year for QBs

NAS

By NAS,
in Carolina Panthers

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NAS Grand Master

NAS

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I personally love to see balance and parity in the NFL. Defenses have adjusted to the passing attacks and have made it difficult to play QB again. For a while it seemed like anyone can do it.  Hopefully it also means they will stop overpaying QBs and invest in other assets, win as a team rather than just relying on elite QBs. Resurgence of the running game has brought the game back to where it was about 15-20 years ago.  

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kungfoodude Grand Master

kungfoodude

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1 minute ago, NAS said:

I personally love to see balance and parity in the NFL. Defenses have adjusted to the passing attacks and have made it difficult to play QB again. For a while it seemed like anyone can do it.  Hopefully it also means they will stop overpaying QBs and invest in other assets, win as a team rather than just relying on elite QBs. Resurgence of the running game has brought the game back to where it was about 15-20 years ago.  

I don't think the statistics bear out this viewpoint.

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UnluckyforSome Veteran

UnluckyforSome

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The change has been teams playing two high safeties to choke off big passing numbers. Your top tier qbs still produce though, and I do not think it will translate into an economic shift across positions in the league. The premium positions, qb, lt, pass rush, will still be the premiums.

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mav1234 Grand Master

mav1234

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Passing offenses are only averaging a few yards less this year than last, and I think that passing numbers trend up towards the end of the year, so we'll probably end up in a similar space.

What I do think is different is that star QBs clearly aren't enough to carry teams right now.

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mav1234 Grand Master

mav1234

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1 minute ago, NAS said:

even top QBs are struggling. Stafford was almost the anomaly 

Lower passing yards, QB rating, TDs, air yards  per attempt, etc.  

I dunno, we're talking 217 vs 212 yards, 7.1 vs 7.0 YPA, 92.3 QB rating vs 91.9, and QBs are actually throwing more TDs by percentage this year (4.7 this year vs 4.5 last). 

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NAS Grand Master

NAS

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1 minute ago, mav1234 said:

I dunno, we're talking 217 vs 212 yards, 7.1 vs 7.0 YPA, 92.3 QB rating vs 91.9, and QBs are actually throwing more TDs by percentage this year (4.7 this year vs 4.5 last). 

2025 Season (Avg) vs 2020 Season (Avg)

Passing Yards per Game~228.2 vs ~240.2

Passer Rating~91.9 vs ~93.6

Completion Pct ~64.6% vs ~65.2%

Passing TDs~1.85 per game vs ~2.0

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mav1234 Grand Master

mav1234

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1 minute ago, NAS said:

2025 Season (Avg) vs 2020 Season (Avg)

Passing Yards per Game~228.2 vs ~240.2

Passer Rating~91.9 vs ~93.6

Completion Pct ~64.6% vs ~65.2%

Passing TDs~1.85 per game vs ~2.0

I mean if you have to go back 5 years to make your point, I'm not sure it really suggests there will be much difference in how teams handle the QB position etc since they really haven't in that time.

There has been a long-term trend where passing yards have gone down, but things have been pretty darn stable the last 3 years

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NAS Grand Master

NAS

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2 minutes ago, mav1234 said:

I mean if you have to go back 5 years to make your point, I'm not sure it really suggests there will be much difference in how teams handle the QB position etc since they really haven't in that time.

There has been a long-term trend where passing yards have gone down, but things have been pretty darn stable the last 3 years

I guess it’s just more noticeable this year. Just compare the MVP race last two years to now.  

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mav1234 Grand Master

mav1234

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Just now, NAS said:

I guess it’s just more noticeable this year. Just compare the MVP race last two years to now.  

In general, the passing yards per game among the leaders and for average have been pretty consistent... Last year Burrows had an insane 290 passing yards per game - Goff had 272 and Mayfield had 265 (top 3 avg is 275). In 2023, CJ Stroud had the most per game at 274, then Tua at 272, and Goff at 270 (top 3 avg is 272). This year, we have Dak at 280 per game, then Mahomes at 270, and May at 263 (top 3 avg is 271).  So, a bit less than last year, but not that much and quite similar to 2023 so far.

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cranky Proficient

cranky

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15 minutes ago, mav1234 said:

In general, the passing yards per game among the leaders and for average have been pretty consistent... Last year Burrows had an insane 290 passing yards per game - Goff had 272 and Mayfield had 265 (top 3 avg is 275). In 2023, CJ Stroud had the most per game at 274, then Tua at 272, and Goff at 270 (top 3 avg is 272). This year, we have Dak at 280 per game, then Mahomes at 270, and May at 263 (top 3 avg is 271).  So, a bit less than last year, but not that much and quite similar to 2023 so far.

Looking at only the top passers only, it would appear they haven't changed but when you look at the NFL overall, they have.

Here is a link to an ESPN article discussing that subject:

Why passing numbers are down

From that article, the passing numbers ince 2016 have gradually declined from 250.9 to 202.8

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mav1234 Grand Master

mav1234

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Decided to look at the BIG drop off was 2021 -> 2022...

image.png.6ec0613633929c3c15387d517dc40fd6.png

I do remember people saying the same thing last year, I think that the last few games some players had tons of yards and pulled the average up. We'll see if that happens again

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mav1234 Grand Master

mav1234

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6 minutes ago, cranky said:

Looking at only the top passers only, it would appear they haven't changed but when you look at the NFL overall, they have.

Here is a link to an ESPN article discussing that subject:

Why passing numbers are down

From that article, the passing numbers ince 2016 have gradually declined from 250.9 to 202.8

1) This article is from the middle of the 2024 season. There was no season that ended with 202.8 YPG. By the end of the season, passing numbers had bounced up to 217. We shared those numbers here a few times. The fact that from Oct to end of season numbers went up by ~14 yards suggests we'll see a bounce up this year too.  

2) The article you're referencing is from 2016 onwards... My numbers were not, just last few years. That's the time period we're talking about.

3) There is DEFINITELY a long term trend down. My comment was regarding it is unlikely I see teams changing strategies with regards to QBs because the numbers have been pretty consistent for the last 4 years. 

Edited by mav1234
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