Passer Rating Differential: A Key to predicting a teams playoff and championship potential.

[SCO96]

Passer Rating Differential = Offensive Passer Rating  - Defensive Passer Rating 

 

• Offensive Passer Rating = how efficient your team’s QBs are.

• Defensive Passer Rating Allowed = how efficient opposing QBs are against your defense.

The larger the positive differential, the more dominant your team’s passing game is relative to opponents’ passing success.
Conversely, a negative differential means your defense is getting carved up or your offense isn’t efficient enough.

Almost every Super Bowl champion from the 1970s to the present day finished near the top of the league in DPRD (Defensive Passer Rating Differential).

https://coldhardfootballfacts.com/stats/passer-ratings-differential

Look at where we are #16 and we have a Negative DPRD (-0.36).

Every team above us has a a positive DPRD, is .500 or better, and still in running for a playoff spot.  Look at the chart. The best teams in the NFL have the highest DPRD.

Only 2 teams below us with a negative DPRD are still in contention or the playoffs: #19 San Francisco (-4.44) and # 21 Tampa Bay(-6.62). And, Tampa has no shot if they fail to beat us down the stretch at least once. The teams with the highest negative DPRD always seem to be at the bottom of the standings.

I didn't learn about this stat until 15 years ago. It's amazing how it always seems to accurately predict who will be in playoff contention year end and year out.

1 =	Los Angeles Rams	111.76	85.23	26.53
2 3	Philadelphia Eagles	100.00	75.57	24.43
3 1	Seattle Seahawks	100.30	77.42	22.88
4 1	Buffalo Bills	104.20	82.66	21.54
5 1	Los Angeles Chargers	91.46	71.19	20.27
6 1	Houston Texans	90.70	72.40	18.30
7 1	Detroit Lions	110.41	94.40	16.01
8 1	New England Patriots	109.10	96.75	12.35
9 3	Green Bay Packers	102.95	92.09	10.86
10 1	Denver Broncos	89.21	78.78	10.43
11 1	Indianapolis Colts	95.12	85.91	9.21
12 =	Pittsburgh Steelers	97.42	89.90	7.52
13 =	Baltimore Ravens	93.87	86.91	6.96
14 2	Jacksonville Jaguars	88.07	81.23	6.84
15 4	Chicago Bears	89.48	88.70	0.78
16 2	Carolina Panthers	88.77	89.13	-0.36
17 2	Arizona Cardinals	93.49	95.79	-2.30
18 1	Kansas City Chiefs	88.85	92.46	-3.61
19 1	San Francisco 49ers	96.87	101.31	-4.44
20 1	Atlanta Falcons	87.50	92.50	-5.00
21 3	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	89.77	96.39	-6.62
22 =	Dallas Cowboys	98.69	108.92	-10.23
23 =	New York Giants	87.74	98.84	-11.10
24 1	New Orleans Saints	84.97	96.17	-11.20
25 1	Miami Dolphins	88.33	102.37	-14.04
26 3	Minnesota Vikings	75.03	90.31	-15.28
27 3	Las Vegas Raiders	83.50	99.14	-15.64
28 =	Cincinnati Bengals	84.51	104.46	-19.95
29 2	Washington Commanders	87.24	107.74	-20.50
30 3	Cleveland Browns	70.46	91.41	-20.95
31 1	New York Jets	77.75	104.86	-27.11
32 =	Tennessee Titans	76.27	106.03	-29.76

 

Edited 1 hour ago by SCO96

[kungfoodude]

Finally, some non-AI content. Thanks for the post!

I suspect that Tampa's differential might get a boost after two games against us.

[CanadianCat]

5 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Finally, some non-AI content. Thanks for the post!

I suspect that Tampa's differential might get a boost after two games against us.

No way. We are an up and down team. Meaning we will beat the breaks off Tampa this weekend. 

Get smoked by Seattle. Then beat Tampa again. 

It is written

[kungfoodude]

44 minutes ago, CanadianCat said:

No way. We are an up and down team. Meaning we will beat the breaks off Tampa this weekend. 

Get smoked by Seattle. Then beat Tampa again. 

It is written

I would say we are more likely to get smoked by Tampa, blast Seattle and then perplexingly lose to Tampa again. 

[UNCrules2187]

Interesting that SF is one of the worst yet if they win out they will be the #1 seed in the NFC. 

[SCO96]

41 minutes ago, UNCrules2187 said:

Interesting that SF is one of the worst yet if they win out they will be the #1 seed in the NFC. 

They have had some issues at the QB spot this year. Purdy was injured and missed several games resulting in Mac Jones having to come off of the bench. Still, they have a solid 96.87 passer rating for the season. What's killing them is their pass defense. Their rating against the pass is 101.31! That's terrible when compared to the top pass defenses around the league.

The 49ers rank 26 out of 32 teams in stopping the pass. I know they have had some injury issues this year so that could explain why their pass defense is mediocre. Fortunately for them, they are able to be an exception to the historical trend.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-average-team-passer-rating

Edited 3 minutes ago by SCO96