Tetairoa McMillan - Your 2025 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year - (Welp... Guess I Was Right)

[tukafan21]

1 hour ago, cranky said:

Anyone looking for a big jump next year is setting themselves up for disappointment given how well he played this year:

• 14th in Yards (13th among WRs)
• 15th in TDs (11th among WRs)
• 10th in 20+ yard receptions
• 10th in 40+ yard receptions
• 7th in 1st Down receptions (6th among WRs)
• 19th in YPC (but 8th among players with 40+ rec)

And Young was at 16.7% bad throws this year. Even is he drops to 15%, that's only a 1.7% improvement. Given TMac was targeted 122 times, that means he would have 2 extra catches next year. That put with the fact that Coker should be getting some of his catches next year, assuming he stays healthy, I would expect his targets to drop - not increase.

Just my JMTC

T-Mac averaged 7.1 targets a game this season and had games of 2, 4, 4, 5, 5, 6, and 6 targets this year.

Even with an improved Coker, there is no reason T-Mac shouldn't see a solid uptick of targets this year, he is a true #1 WR, and even with Coker, he realistically should be 8-9 targets a game next season.  Love Coker's potential as a real nice #2 option in this league, but he's not good enough that we should be taking targets away from T-Mac to get more for Coker.

In addition to that, I think they'll start throwing more downfield to him as well, which will only help his yardage total even if he gets the same amount of targets.  Then add him catching a few more of the ones he actually dropped, plus a handful more catches on the non-drops but tough catches he couldn't complete.

Also we had 191 targets to RBs and TEs next year, with Rico being our best receiving threat of any of them and he'll be gone.  Even if Etienne and/or Brooks take a bunch of those, or we sign a new TE, there should be a solid chunk of those targets going to Coker either, so he won't be taking any of T-Mac's targets due to that as well.

Also don't forget that while he played 17 games this year, T-Mac basically put up his stats in 16 games, as he clearly was out there in Week 17 as a decoy and not a real target threat due to him being sick, and thus his 1 catch for 5 yards on 4 target stat line.

Edited 22 hours ago by tukafan21

[MHS831]

22 hours ago, tukafan21 said:

I.  Told.  You.

 

 

I was partially right.  I stated that he was a rookie.  

[Bear Hands]

Seems like a great kid - happy to have him on the squad. Bright future ahead.

[MHS831]

1 hour ago, Bear Hands said:

Seems like a great kid - happy to have him on the squad. Bright future ahead.

And so is Coker.  And so is Bryce (if he becomes part of the equation).  There is a lot to like about the WR/QB room in terms of "people you can cheer for".

[cranky]

18 hours ago, frankw said:

That's why it is critical that this front office bring in real QB depth this offseason in the event Bryce Young begins this season the same way he did the first three by playing poorly at best.

And if our 8th overall pick who just finished as rookie of the year actually sees his targets go down someone needs to be fired.

Here's are some other 1st round WR picks second year compared to their 1st.

As you can see, they all stayed pretty much the same. Smith-Njigba is an exception but they brought Mike Macdonald in as the HC his second year which I think explains that. 

Again, I think anyone expecting significantly more targets and yardage will be disappointed. 

[cranky]

18 hours ago, tukafan21 said:

 Love Coker's potential as a real nice #2 option in this league, but he's not good enough that we should be taking targets away from T-Mac to get more for Coker.

 

Not to take anything away from Tmac, but I disagree.

Here are their stats showing Tmac's numbers prior to Coker and then once Coker got up to speed. 

I don't know how you can look at those numbers and still expect Tmacs numbers to significantly increase. Again, not taking anything away from TMac, but having Coker means you do not have to forcefeed Tmac.  I think Tmac's catch rate and YPC will go up, but it would not surprise me if the targets stay the same or drop a little. That is assuming Coker stays healthy.

[tukafan21]

27 minutes ago, cranky said:

Here's are some other 1st round WR picks second year compared to their 1st.

As you can see, they all stayed pretty much the same. Smith-Njigba is an exception but they brought Mike Macdonald in as the HC his second year which I think explains that. 

Again, I think anyone expecting significantly more targets and yardage will be disappointed. 

Sorry, but this is a terrible breakdown that doesn't at all show what you're trying to say/project about T-Mac next year, as it leaves out key information that changes everything, it makes the opposite point that you're trying to.

Chase missed 5 games that second season after playing all 17 as a rookie (and still saw more targets that second season).

Puka it looks like you projected his stats out to a 17 game season (as he only played 11 games), but even still , when you have 160+ targets as a rookie, there isn't really much room to get any more the next year.

Waddle saw an increase in yards, and sure, his targets went down, but he played on a team with a better WR that year who saw 170 targets for 1,710 yards during that 2nd season for Waddle... something T-Mac doesn't have to contend with on the same team (280+ targets for their top 2 WRs, if you don't think T-Mac would see more than 122 targets if him and Coker combined for 287, then you're nuts).

Then Olave and Wilson both saw an increase of 19 targets in their second season.

You basically just laid out the reasoning for why T-Mac should see at least 20 more targets next year, if not more, which would be a solid increase and put him easily into the Top 10 most targeted WR next season.

Edited 3 hours ago by tukafan21

[tukafan21]

7 minutes ago, cranky said:

Not to take anything away from Tmac, but I disagree.

Here are their stats showing Tmac's numbers prior to Coker and then once Coker got up to speed. 

I don't know how you can look at those numbers and still expect Tmacs numbers to significantly increase. Again, not taking anything away from TMac, but having Coker means you do not have to forcefeed Tmac.  I think Tmac's catch rate and YPC will go up, but it would not surprise me if the targets stay the same or drop a little. That is assuming Coker stays healthy.

See my previous post.

You're also leaving out that T-Mac was likely hitting a rookie wall, like 95% of rookies do late in their first season, combined with the added attention on him by defenses, which in turn would be why Bryce looked Coker's way down the stretch.  With Coker playing like that to start next year, defenses will have to pay attention to it, which will then also make things easier for T-Mac.

All of which is also ignoring that T-Mac will just be a better player next year than he was this year, assuming he works on his game this offseason, which we all know he will be.  If a player who was already your clear cut #1 comes back even better his next season, you're going to make sure you're throwing it his way more often, no matter who else you have.

Again, Coker's added targets won't be at the expense of T-Mac's, they will BOTH be taking targets from the rest of the team.  Not to mention, we should be passing it more next year to begin with, seeing as we'll have both of them hopefully ready to go full speed Week 1, which again, will help both their target totals increase.

Coker looks like a really good player, but even the most optimistic person can't say he looks like he has #1 potential, he has very solid to maybe even high end #2 potential.  You're not taking targets away from the reigning OROY who looks like a true Top 15 WR already to get your #2 targets, you increase both of them by taking from the others.

Edited 3 hours ago by tukafan21

[cranky]

9 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

Sorry, but this is a terrible breakdown that doesn't at all show what you're trying to say/project about T-Mac next year, as it leaves out key information that changes everything, it makes the opposite point that you're trying to.

Chase missed 5 games that second season after playing all 17 as a rookie (and still saw more targets that second season).

Puka it looks like you projected his stats out to a 17 game season (as he only played 11 games), but even still , when you have 160+ targets as a rookie, there isn't really much room to get any more the next year.

Waddle saw an increase in yards, and sure, his targets went down, but he played on a team with a better WR that year who saw 170 targets for 1,710 yards during that 2nd season for Waddle... something T-Mac doesn't have to contend with on the same team (280+ targets for their top 2 WRs, if you don't think T-Mac would see more than 122 targets if him and Coker combined for 280, then you're nuts).

Then Olave and Wilson both saw an increase of 19 targets in their second season.

You basically just laid out the reasoning for why T-Mac should see at least 20 more targets next year, if not more, which would be a solid increase and put him easily into the Top 10 most targeted WR next season.

Just chasing targets is a fools game. Chase averaged 85 yrds and .76 TDs per game his first year and 87.16 yrds, and .75 TD's per game his second year. Statistically the same. NOT an improvement.

Puka saw no increase either.

Yes, Waddle's went down because he had to share targets with another receiver - just like TMac will have to share targets with Coker next year so you have actually just made my point concerning Coker.

Olave saw an increase in targets but Carr replaced Dalton and even with the increase in targets, his production was pretty flat (83 extra yards and 1 more TD for the entire year).

And Wilson's number did increase but the Jets replaced the other two receivers and their contribution was significantly down from Davis's and Moore's.

Again, nothing in those numbers should lead anyone to believe there will be a big leap for Tmac next year. 

 

 

 

[tukafan21]

38 minutes ago, cranky said:

Just chasing targets is a fools game. Chase averaged 85 yrds and .76 TDs per game his first year and 87.16 yrds, and .75 TD's per game his second year. Statistically the same. NOT an improvement.

Puka saw no increase either.

Yes, Waddle's went down because he had to share targets with another receiver - just like TMac will have to share targets with Coker next year so you have actually just made my point concerning Coker.

Olave saw an increase in targets but Carr replaced Dalton and even with the increase in targets, his production was pretty flat (83 extra yards and 1 more TD for the entire year).

And Wilson's number did increase but the Jets replaced the other two receivers and their contribution was significantly down from Davis's and Moore's.

Again, nothing in those numbers should lead anyone to believe there will be a big leap for Tmac next year. 

 

 

 

C'mon now....

First, you can't switch up your argument once someone points out a major flaw in your point.

You're saying we shouldn't expect a big increase in targets/yards for T-Mac, but then shift to talking about averages with Chase when I point out the significant leap he took there once you factor in his missing games.  He saw an increase in targets in 5 less games, averages aside, he saw a significant increase in targets in his 2nd season, what he then did with those targets is actually irrelevant in this discussion.

Puka seeing no increase is pointless, as he saw such an absurd amount of targets for a rookie, it's near impossible to see an increase.

But the real issue in this post is that you think I'm proving your point by showing how Waddle had to share targets with Hill.

Tyreek Hill was a 1st team All Pro who was 2nd in the NFL in yards that season.

If you think Jaylen Waddle sharing targets with a 1st team All Pro and a future HOFer is even remotely in the same category as T-Mac needing to share targets with Coker... then you are certifiably insane, lol.

If anything, you could make the argument that Coker is to Waddle as T-Mac is to Hill in that discussion (which would then lead to a serious increase in targets/yards for T-Mac).  But even that is insane, as neither T-Mac or Coker will be as good as Hill and Waddle respectively that season.  I love both of their potential, but c'mon now, T-Mac isn't getting 119 catches for 1,700 yards and Coker isn't getting 117 for 1,350 next season.

Edited 2 hours ago by tukafan21

[tukafan21]

The bottom line is we saw long stretches this season where T-Mac wasn't even targeted.  He had games where he went an entire half without seeing a pass thrown his way, and it lead to a bunch of games with 5 or less targets.  If he's healthy and we're not up a stupid amount and only running the ball, I can't see him having more than a game or two next year with 5 or less targets.

We were also only 22nd this year in pass attempts, and that was with a rookie #1 and no legitimate 2nd option for half the season.  And even then, we were only 46 pass attempts above 31st place.

If we go into next season with T-Mac improved in his 2nd season and a healthy Coker for 17 games, there is absolutely no reason for us to not throw it more.  That right away increases both of their target totals without sacrificing any targets from each other or other players, add in them taking targets from the TEs and RBs on top of that, and your argument just doesn't hold water anymore.

You can't look at targets/yards in a vacuum and think next year Coker just takes some from T-Mac.  You have to look at the team as a whole and our situations this year and then project what will happen next year.

If he's healthy for 17 games, I'd bet my life savings that T-Mac sees increases across the board, targets/catches/yards/TDs.  

Just as Coker will also see career highs in all categories, it's not one vs the other, it's shifting offensive strategy given our personnel, which next year will be much better for our passing game (QB issues aside).

Edited 2 hours ago by tukafan21

[Basbear]

I called Tmac as well, vastly early and let tuka drive the spaceship. 

Think about this Panthers group without him....Id say WR would be the top need. 

[cranky]

1 hour ago, tukafan21 said:

The bottom line is we saw long stretches this season where T-Mac wasn't even targeted.  He had games where he went an entire half without seeing a pass thrown his way, and it lead to a bunch of games with 5 or less targets.  If he's healthy and we're not up a stupid amount and only running the ball, I can't see him having more than a game or two next year with 5 or less targets.

We were also only 22nd this year in pass attempts, and that was with a rookie #1 and no legitimate 2nd option for half the season.  And even then, we were only 46 pass attempts above 31st place.

If we go into next season with T-Mac improved in his 2nd season and a healthy Coker for 17 games, there is absolutely no reason for us to not throw it more.  That right away increases both of their target totals without sacrificing any targets from each other or other players, add in them taking targets from the TEs and RBs on top of that, and your argument just doesn't hold water anymore.

You can't look at targets/yards in a vacuum and think next year Coker just takes some from T-Mac.  You have to look at the team as a whole and our situations this year and then project what will happen next year.

If he's healthy for 17 games, I'd bet my life savings that T-Mac sees increases across the board, targets/catches/yards/TDs.  

Just as Coker will also see career highs in all categories, it's not one vs the other, it's shifting offensive strategy given our personnel, which next year will be much better for our passing game (QB issues aside).

I agree with most of what you say. I do think they throw it more ( although Canales will never be an aggressive play caller ) and that will benefit everyone. 

It's a great debate to be having and it's even better to finally be in a position to even be able to have these questions. I really think next year is the year when everything finally starts coming together. 

Edited 43 minutes ago by cranky

[tukafan21]

6 minutes ago, cranky said:

I agree with most of what you say. I do think they throw it more ( although Canales will never be an aggressive play caller ) and that will benefit everyone. 

It's a great debate to be having and it's even better to finally be in a position to even be able to have they questions. I really think next year is the year when everything finally starts coming together. 

In the end you call plays for your personnel, and both T-Mac and Coker will be better players next year than they were this year.  This year we had two RBs coming off 1k yard seasons, next year we'll have none and two very promising young WRs, there is no world where we aren't throwing it more, even with Bryce's noodle for an arm.

Coker is a nice player with a solid upside, but it's nothing close to T-Mac's current ability and his own future upside.

Bottom line is Coker will see a significant increase in targets and production, but none of it will come at the expense of the better player with the higher upside as he'll also get an increase of his own.

Edited 37 minutes ago by tukafan21