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Running QBs in the NFL

Stumpy

By Stumpy,
in Carolina Panthers

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Stumpy Grand Master

Stumpy

Posted
Posted

It seems that, roughly, every other year, there is a running QB coming out of college who is going to "revolutionize the NFL." And every year, proponents of running QBs will tell you that "the NFL is changing, its time to get with it." Running QBs are not new. They have literally been around since the beginning of football. And they have stayed, in a small percentage, around ever since.

The easiest way to assess who qualifies as a running QB is, obviously, rushing yards. To do an analysis of the history of running QBs, I've chosen to look at QB's who have averaged at least 20 rushing yards a game for a season. Since 1991 (the earliest that quantifiable stats for running QBs are available) QBs have reached that mark 75 times.

And based on those 75 seasons, you come up with an average stat-line for running QBs in the past 20 years of...

13 Games Played - 58.1% Comp - 2500 yds - 14.9 tds - 10.3 ints - 80.4 rat

373 rush yds - 3.16 rush tds 7.05 fumbles

(source)

Now some will say that stats don't matter, only wins and losses. Valid point. To see how running QBs fare in that category, going back to 2000 (the earliest that game logs are available) the stat-line looks like this...

13 Games Played - 57.8% Comp - 2479 yds - 15 tds - 10.1 ints - 79.8 rat

386 rush yds - 3.17 rush tds 7.28 fumbles

6.8 wins and 6.2 losses of a 53.87% win percentage

(source)

Considering that all the other stats line up, almost identically, in the two time frames, it would be a fairly safe assumption that the W-L% should be around the same number. Based on this, a running QB in the NFL could be expected to get you to a 7 win season. You might get to 8-9 wins, assuming your back up QB can win 1 or 2 of the 3 games a year he will be playing while your "franchise QB" sits on the bench.

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Catalyst Newbie

Catalyst

Posted
Posted

I don't want Cam because he's a running QB. I think he can be a Roethlisberger type mobile passer. McNabb is a good example of a QB who was a runner in college who adjusted and became a passer in the NFL. Culpepper as well, though his injury pretty much ended the good phase of his career.

Aaron Rodgers is also very mobile, but is a throw-first guy. I think Newton will probably be more of a runner early in his career, but as he matures as a passer will look to throw first.

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JawnyBlaze Grand Master

JawnyBlaze

Posted
Posted

Exactly. Say no to Blaine Gabbert. Running QBs never succeed.

It seems that, roughly, every other year, there is a running QB coming out of college who is going to "revolutionize the NFL." And every year, proponents of running QBs will tell you that "the NFL is changing, its time to get with it." Running QBs are not new. They have literally been around since the beginning of football. And they have stayed, in a small percentage, around ever since.

The easiest way to assess who qualifies as a running QB is, obviously, rushing yards. To do an analysis of the history of running QBs, I've chosen to look at QB's who have averaged at least 20 rushing yards a game for a season. Since 1991 (the earliest that quantifiable stats for running QBs are available) QBs have reached that mark 75 times.

And based on those 75 seasons, you come up with an average stat-line for running QBs in the past 20 years of...

13 Games Played - 58.1% Comp - 2500 yds - 14.9 tds - 10.3 ints - 80.4 rat

373 rush yds - 3.16 rush tds 7.05 fumbles

(source)

Now some will say that stats don't matter, only wins and losses. Valid point. To see how running QBs fare in that category, going back to 2000 (the earliest that game logs are available) the stat-line looks like this...

13 Games Played - 57.8% Comp - 2479 yds - 15 tds - 10.1 ints - 79.8 rat

386 rush yds - 3.17 rush tds 7.28 fumbles

6.8 wins and 6.2 losses of a 53.87% win percentage

(source)

Considering that all the other stats line up, almost identically, in the two time frames, it would be a fairly safe assumption that the W-L% should be around the same number. Based on this, a running QB in the NFL could be expected to get you to a 7 win season. You might get to 8-9 wins, assuming your back up QB can win 1 or 2 of the 3 games a year he will be playing while your "franchise QB" sits on the bench.

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MadHatter Rookie

MadHatter

Posted
Posted

I don't want Cam because he's a running QB. I think he can be a Roethlisberger type mobile passer. McNabb is a good example of a QB who was a runner in college who adjusted and became a passer in the NFL. Culpepper as well, though his injury pretty much ended the good phase of his career.

Aaron Rodgers is also very mobile, but is a throw-first guy. I think Newton will probably be more of a runner early in his career, but as he matures as a passer will look to throw first.

The only accurate comparisions of Newton to Roethlisberger is his size and the fact that he plays QB.

Roethlisberger is a mobile QB who uses his ability to extend the play and make the pass.

Newton is a running QB who makes one read and then takes off.

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Catalyst Newbie

Catalyst

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Posted

Because that's what the offense he ran was designed to do. On the plays where he dropped back to pass he sat in there and threw it. Again, you're holding the Auburn offense against him when he had no say in the matter.

At worst it's a question as to whether or not he can do those things in the NFL. He hasn't been asked to, but that doesn't mean he can't do them.

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Millions Newbie

Millions

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Posted

Give me a QB that can hurt defenses with his arm AND his legs we have never had that but we have got killed plenty of times by opposing QB's that do have that skill set in there arsenal. Which is why I can't understand why so many are against drafting Cam...

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teeray Contributor

teeray

Posted
Posted

13 Games Played - 57.8% Comp - 2479 yds - 15 tds - 10.1 ints - 79.8 rat

386 rush yds - 3.17 rush tds 7.28 fumbles

6.8 wins and 6.2 losses or a 53.87% win percentage

Am I missing something. You did you analysis off of 13 games played. The win percentage is @54%.

That would be 10 wins per season with occasional 9 win seasons or 11 win seasons.

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teeray Contributor

teeray

Posted
Posted

Rodgers was also 7th in passing yards. He was just one hit from being forced to missing multiple games if he got concussed again.

Cam Newton was one of the best passers in college football too. He is also ten times bigger and more able to sustain hits than Aaron Rodgers.

Maybe Cam Newton is Aaron Rodgers 2.0 :)

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