Draft Watching 101

[Mr. Scot]

Some lessons learned from twenty plus years of watching the NFL Draft and draft coverage (most if not all learned by listening to scouts, GMs and NFL people talk about the draft process).

Trust no one: About five seconds after the season ends, GMs and teams go into “poker face” mode. To be clear, not everything that teams say is a lie or a smokescreen, but enough is that you should take pretty much everything with a grain of salt. And as a general rule, the closer it is to the draft, the worse it gets.

Teams don’t care what draft experts think: When Bill Tobin asked “who in the hell is Mel Kiper Jr”, he wasn’t just being a jerk. Teams have paid professional scouts on staff. That’s who they listen to. Basically, if you’re not on the payroll, teams don’t give a rip what you have to say. And if you think you can judge how teams value players based on what the draft experts say, think again.

That goes for fans too: As the old saying goes, listen to the fans and you wind up sitting with them. Just as an example why, how about the fact that fans weren’t especially happy with using a third round pick on a guy out of Utah that was just a kick returner? Bottom line: GMs know fans who boo a pick now will be in the stands cheering loudly when that pick pans out.

Ticket sales aren’t part of the formula: As Marty Hurney pointed out in a recent radio appearance, winning sells tickets. Hype and popularity don’t help win games; great players do. If the Texans had gone by hype, they wouldn’t have chosen Mario Williams over Reggie Bush. These days you’d have a hard time finding someone who’d disagree with that choice.

But local ties sometimes can be: Not so much in the higher picks, but when you get down to rounds six or seven and start looking at undrafted free agents, teams may give an extra look at local heroes. They can factor in a small way in higher picks only in as much as GMs might have seen or heard more about local products than they have players from farther away and might give the edge between two players graded equally to a local kid, but that’s about it.

Scouts wish coaches would butt out: Sometimes even when you are on the payroll, your opinion might not matter as much as that of others. Heard a radio interview from a former pro scout a while back talking about how much they hated when coaches got involved in the process. The reason? Coaches have an unfortunate tendency to fall in love with players after seeing just a single highlight reel or workout. Scouts are trained to look at the whole body of work and see the big picture. Are there some coaches capable of that? Sure, but generally speaking they make decisions off a small body of work (i.e. a week of practice) which is why scouts would rather coaches be seen and not heard.

Teams talk themselves into things: It’s easier to be objective when the draft is farther away. But as it gets closer and choices narrow, pressure kicks in. Realizing that you have to pick somebody, even when the pool of choices may not look so hot, can lead to some rationalization. Before long, you wind up thinking that a guy who’s really only half-decent is the greatest player to ever play his position. So you draft the fantasy, but you get the reality (and yes, fans do this too).

And sometimes out of them: Pressure doesn’t only cause overdrafting. It sometimes also causes overthinking. GMs that are overly worried about making mistakes - especially those that happen to have made one recently - start looking at every little detail of their prospective draftees, and molehills quickly turn into mountains. More than one team has passed on what turned out to be a star player over factors that wound up being meaningless.

“Take a risk” is easy for you to say: Doyle Brunson is one of the best poker players in the world. He can bluff people so convincingly that if he told you up was down you’d be inclined to believe him. But once when an interviewer asked him the secret for an average player to win at poker, he told them it was best to play it safe, bet big only when you’ve got a good hand and fold when you don’t think you can win. Now does he play that way? No, but he makes a valid point. It’s easy to say that GMs should take risks when drafting, and most aren’t afraid to take one occasionally. But as often as not, risk-taking is what gets GMs fired. When your livelihood depends on it, it’s not so simple.

The process isn’t very nice sometimes: Millions of dollars – and people’s jobs – are at stake every time a draft decision is made. So while “character counts”, teams can’t really afford to play nice. A scout who fails to relay a nasty rumor he hears about a prospect to his GM might find himself on the unemployment line if he decides to keep a lid on that rumor for the kid’s sake…and then it later turns out to be true. Teams can choose whether or not to take those sorts of things seriously or not, but if they want to keep their jobs, scouts and personnel people can’t afford to leave them unaddressed.

Draft boards vary (wildly): When the Panthers drafted Bruce Nelson in the second round of the 2003 draft, some opposing GMs were scratching their heads. They had Nelson rated at least a round or two lower, and that’s not a rare occurrence at all. Draft boards and draft evaluations can vary pretty wildly. There might (might) be consensus on the top ten picks or so, and even there you’d likely find plenty of disagreement on the order. Beyond that, you can pretty much forget it. To put it simply, one team’s steal is another team’s reach.

Conflicting information abounds: One of the reasons why draft boards vary a lot is that there's a lot of conflicting information flying around, and not just due to smokescreens. It's especially true when it comes to medical evaluations. Take the cases of Jonathan Stewart last year and DaQuan Bowers this year. Some team's doctors told them to stay away from Stewart, but the Panthers team doctor said he'd be fine. The same thing is happening to Bowers now. Mind you, it's not just medical info though. Two different scouts can look at the exact same prospect in the exact same workout and come away with entirely different reads. Teams (and fans) have to try and pick out who's right and who's wrong, but the final answer isn't as simple as asking Regis Philbin. It can take years to find out you were right...or wrong.

It's not a crap shoot, at least not totally: When you get right down to it, the whole thing is an educated guess. Some teams are more "educated" than others, and the better prepared teams are the ones that draft smart. But sadly, even smart teams screw up. There are loads of things about a kid going from college to the pros that are just plain impossible to predict. If it were easy, there'd be no such things as "steals" and "busts".

Bottom line, the draft process is a lot of fun to watch, but at heart it's a high stakes poker game and nobody wants to show their cards early. You don't know who wins a poker game till everyone shows their cards. Truthfully though, in this particular game the results of the card showing might not be known for three or four years.

[davos]

I want to especially stress the "Draft Boards Vary (wildly)" section:

This could not be more true. If a team likes a guy enough and honestly thinks he's a strong fit for their system, they are going to do what they need to to reach and grab the guy. Great example with Nelson and we all have Armanti fresh in our memories

[Mr. Scot]

I think more than a few people raised eyebrows at the Edwards pick, though Gantt insists at least one team was ready to take him right after the Panthers did.

The Panthers traded up to get Nelson, Edwards, and Everette Brown. They tried to trade up to get Jimmy Clausen but couldn't get a deal made.

It's not all bad, mind you. They did also trade up to get Chris Gamble.

Still, when I hear they're trading up, I get nervous :(

[davos]

I think more than a few people raised eyebrows at the Edwards pick, though Gantt insists at least one team was ready to take him right after the Panthers did.

The Panthers traded up to get Nelson, Edwards, and Everette Brown. They tried to trade up to get Jimmy Clausen but couldn't get a deal made.

It's not all bad, mind you. They did also trade up to get Chris Gamble.

Still, when I hear they're trading up, I get nervous :(

For sure. You pretty much have to just cross your fingers and hope its some one that's more of a steal than a reach

[Mr. Scot]

Can't remember the name, but the Raiders picked a guy in the first round a few years back that most teams had rated somewhere between the fourth and sixth.

Bad scouting will kill a team as fast as anything.

[teeray]

[Zithers]

Can't remember the name, but the Raiders picked a guy in the first round a few years back that most teams had rated somewhere between the fourth and sixth.

Bad scouting will kill a team as fast as anything.

Dunno about first rounders but they took Michael Mitchell at #47 in 2009 which made everyone go WTF.

[KaseKlosed]

[Mr. Scot]

Dunno about first rounders but they took Michael Mitchell at #47 in 2009 which made everyone go WTF.

That might be the guy I'm thinking of. Also might explain why I couldn't find him when I tried to look it up (I was looking at first rounders) :lol:

Of course, if you wanted to research Raider draft busts, there's plenty of material.

[teeray]

“Take a risk” is easy for you to say: Doyle Brunson is one of the best poker players in the world. He can bluff people so convincingly that if he told you up was down you’d be inclined to believe him. But once when an interviewer asked him the secret of winning at poker, he told them it was best to play it safe, bet big only when you’ve got a good hand and fold when you don’t think you can win. Now does he play that way? No, but he makes a valid point. It’s easy to say that GMs should take risks when drafting, and most aren’t afraid to take one occasionally. But as often as not, risk-taking is what gets GMs fired. When your livelihood depends on it, it’s not so simple.

I missed this the first time thru. No way Doyle Brunson said this. 0%. I don't believe it. You have to show me that one. Unless he said it to someone sitting across the table from him and he was about to undress him (figuratively lol). Playing smart in poker is very different from playing safe. If he said this he was referring to someone who was just starting out.

If someone would have asked Stuey Ungar if playing safe was the best way to play poker he would have laughed you off the felt.

Not attacking you Scot because the point you were making was a valid one. :)

[csx]

The Panthers traded down and took Bruce Nelson, not up. The Patriots took our original pick and took bethel johnson, gave us a lower second and a fourth. Then somehow through a convoluted trade they got that fourth back and took Asante Samual.

[Mr. Scot]

I missed this the first time thru. No way Doyle Brunson said this. 0%. I don't believe it. You have to show me that one. Unless he said it to someone sitting across the table from him and he was about to undress him (figuratively lol). Playing smart in poker is very different from playing safe. If he said this he was referring to someone who was just starting out.

If someone would have asked Stuey Ungar if playing safe was the best way to play poker he would have laughed you off the felt.

Not attacking you Scot because the point you were making was a valid one. :)

He said it in a radio interview.

And honestly, as advice given to the average poker player, it's not that shocking.

[Mr. Scot]

The Panthers traded down and took Bruce Nelson, not up. The Patriots took our original pick and took bethel johnson, gave us a lower second and a fourth. Then somehow through a convoluted trade they got that fourth back and took Asante Samual.

I remembered us trading up, but I'll look back and check.

Where he was taken was really the point though. And he's not the only example of a reach on our part.

Edit: You're correct. It was Ricky Manning they traded up for that year (a good decision at the time, a crappy one after the rule change).

Thanks :thumbsup:

[Sword]

Where are your sources, sir? I must see your sources before I believe you! :D