Jump to content
  • Welcome!

    Register and log in easily with Twitter or Google accounts!

    Or simply create a new Huddle account. 

    Members receive fewer ads , access our dark theme, and the ability to join the discussion!

     

Newton 5/1 to Win ROY


SnarkAttack

Recommended Posts

Then again, the rest of the division has never been this strong, but hey, I hope you're right...

More to the point, teams in this division struggle to maintain their dominance from year to year. The year after New Orleans won the division in 2006 they went 8-8 in 2007 and opened the door for Tampa. Then Tampa falters late and opens up the door for us in 2008. We implode in 2009 and the Saints come rolling back. They still have a good year in 2010 but Atlanta nails it out of the park in 2010.

The division is strong for sure but it seems that the same team struggles to win the division 2 years in a row. Historically key injuries have played a huge role in that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Have you seen the amount of Camdemonium around here?

Add in a few more states where he used to play and all the people that root for him solely on his race and position and it's not that far fetched that these morons can affect Vegas lines.

Vegas likely sees it as free money.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Has the bleacherreport article that goes through Cam's season game by game with stats and commentary each week been posted yet? I'm sure it has, it was written over a week ago. Doesn't mean anything and completely speculative but it was fun to read anyways.

The writer predicted him to have 3500+ passing yards, 1000+ rushing yards, and something like 25-9 TDs/INTs. He also dominated the ROY race.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Actually by playing a bunch of rookies and young players last year, we have done quite a bit to improve our offense. Newton alone will help us double our win total. Gettis and LaFell are no longer rookies and it is common knowledge that players typically make their biggest gains between year 1 and 2. We will likely not lose Williams but even if we did, Stewart is our best running back right now and Goodson is only getting better. Our line should be healthy and even if they aren't, both Bernadeau and Schwartz got plenty of playing time and will be much improved. Otah will be back and ready unless he is still playing soft and refusing to play through discomfort. One of the big sleepers this year will be Ziemba. At 6'8" and 317 lbs he will be another in a long line of late round offensive line draft picks for Hurney that will pay off big dividends down the road.

If we pick up a veteran wide receiver to replace Smith or simply keep Smith this year, I would expect we will easily average one touchdown more than we did last year. At roughly 20 points a game, we will be in most games and will win at least 5 maybe a few more. That is a huge improvement for our offense and my analysis is being conservative at this point.

Lot of good points - but c'mon, WRs do not usually make their biggest strides b/t years 1 and 2, everybody that knows the NFL knows it usually comes later. Williams is our best back, IMO, but I will agree that I don't foresee a big dropoff there b/t Stewart/Dwill. Also, if we go into this season with LaFell and Gettis as our 1 and 2 receivers, I PROMISE you we are screwed in that dept. I'm not even going on "sleeper" rookies b/c, well, we haven't even had a practice to evaluate them. Oh, and Bernadeu is absolutely terrible, BTW. I would like to see Duke Robinson step up as well as Corvey Irvin (highly doubt that one) Likewise, IF we can hang on to CJ, that will be a HUGE boost...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Have you seen the amount of Camdemonium around here?

Add in a few more states where he used to play and all the people that root for him solely on his race and position and it's not that far fetched that these morons can affect Vegas lines.

Vegas likely sees it as free money.

I thought you knew about Vegas and gambling but from your post you don't seem to have a clue. Vegas odds are controlled not by who is going to win but by how folks are betting as you loosely intimate. If a bunch of folks bet on newton and no one else then the odds for Newton to win go down like from 5-1 to 3-1 and other player odds go up to encourage evening out the betting on other guys. They manage the betting making sure it doesn't get skewed in one direction or the other too much to limit their liability. Their goal is to make money no matter who wins. Vegas doesn't want too much money on any one player but raather wants it distributed among all of them so they manipulate the odds to do that. So instead of being free money, too much betting on one player to them is a bad thing not a good one.

Yeah of course you will say you already knew that but once again your post doesn't reflect it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Have you seen the amount of Camdemonium around here?

Add in a few more states where he used to play and all the people that root for him solely on his race and position and it's not that far fetched that these morons can affect Vegas lines.

Vegas likely sees it as free money.

Yeah all those black people in the South really pushing up those vegas lines.........

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Have you seen the amount of Camdemonium around here?

Add in a few more states where he used to play and all the people that root for him solely on his race and position and it's not that far fetched that these morons can affect Vegas lines.

Vegas likely sees it as free money.

2qdpn50.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So instead of being free money, too much betting on one player to them is a bad thing not a good one.

Yeah of course you will say you already knew that but once again your post doesn't reflect it.

You miss the point.

Cam probably started out 10-1. With all the assclowns betting on him, he's down to 5-1 while the more realistic candidates are sitting at better odds but no one is taking them because they've fallen for the hype.

As the bets keep coming in for Cam, his odds get lower, 8-1, 6.5-1, 5-1 but they know that each bet that comes in is cash in their pocket so they love it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lot of good points - but c'mon, WRs do not usually make their biggest strides b/t years 1 and 2, everybody that knows the NFL knows it usually comes later. Williams is our best back, IMO, but I will agree that I don't foresee a big dropoff there b/t Stewart/Dwill. Also, if we go into this season with LaFell and Gettis as our 1 and 2 receivers, I PROMISE you we are screwed in that dept. I'm not even going on "sleeper" rookies b/c, well, we haven't even had a practice to evaluate them. Oh, and Bernadeu is absolutely terrible, BTW. I would like to see Duke Robinson step up as well as Corvey Irvin (highly doubt that one) Likewise, IF we can hang on to CJ, that will be a HUGE boost...

I would agree that the old adage may be less true for some positions versus others, like wide receiver, but I randomly picked 2007 to 2008 as representative and looked at whether rookie wide receivers improved from year 1 to year 2. I looked at only wide receivers and disqualified them if they were injured or weren't a starter at least a few games. Here is what I found for the top rookie wide receivers (there were a bunch of TEs and running backs once you got past the top 4 or 5 names).

------------------rookie year------------2nd year

----------------catches--Yards----TDs----catches----yards----TDs

Dwayne Bowe---70-------995-------3--------86--------1022-----7

Calvin Johnson---48-------756------4--------78--------1331-----12

James Jones injured

Anthony Gonzales-37-----576------3---------57--------664------4

Ted Ginn---------34------420-----2---------56---------790-----2

Sydney Rice- didn't start much year 1 or 2

In 2008 here are the results

Eddie Royal----91--------980----5 ----------37--------345-------0

DeSean Jackson--62-----912----2-----------62--------1156------9

Davone Bess-----54-----552----1-----------76--------758-------2

Donnie Avery-----53-----674----3-----------47--------589-------5

Jordy Nelson- didn't start any games

Harry Douglas- injured in 2009

So I noticed a few tendencies. Receivers who started their rookie years and put up decent numbers tended to improve year 2. Guys who didn't start much at all their rookie year many times didn't do much in year 2. The further down the list you got beyond the first 5 or 6 guys, the spottier the results and the less conclusions you could make. Overall there aren't very many rookie receivers who have great years.

Implications for us??

LaFell and Gettis were lited as the 4th and 5th most productive wide receivers as rookies in 2010.

Here are their numbers:

Lafell-----38 catches- 468 yards- 12.3 average and 1 TD

Gettis----37 catches 508 yards- 13.7 average and 3 TDs

If they progress this year as I think they will I would expect both of them to average 45-50 catches- 600-650 yards and perhaps 4 or 5 TDs apiece. Of course if Smitty stays and Shockey gets lots of balls, those numbers could stay the same or even go down.

2 things I also noted- Sydney Rice had 1 good year in his four in the league and would be a huge gamble. I thought Eddie Royale was good as well but the numbers don't support it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You miss the point.

Cam probably started out 10-1. With all the assclowns betting on him, he's down to 5-1 while the more realistic candidates are sitting at better odds but no one is taking them because they've fallen for the hype.

As the bets keep coming in for Cam, his odds get lower, 8-1, 6.5-1, 5-1 but they know that each bet that comes in is cash in their pocket so they love it.

He probably started out 10-1. For someone who wants facts instead of assumptions you are going out on a limb in your first sentence.

Secondly this bet is one of hundreds of thousands that come in on everything and everybody. They don't care about Newton or any of those guys, they just care about the flow of the betting and make sure that when they pay out the winners, they have more money coming in from all the losers to more than cover it. No one is sitting back there saying wow look at all the money newton is producing here. They just control the flow of the bets and make sure the total money works out. They love people who bet, period. They don't care what you bet on.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

i see him having a decent rooking season filled with alot of mistakes but alot of WOW moments but RoY is wishful thinking

What do you think it takes?? Most rookies don't play that well. Usually one or two guys have outstanding seasons. Given that rookie quarterbacks have won it 4 times in the last 7 years and they all started day 1 like newton is projected to do, he has a dcent chance to be that guy. Who thought Bradford would have a great year in 2010???

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This does NOT surprise me whatsoever... The dude is a phenom. ROY is a lock... Pro bowl, a lock... SuperBowl MVP??? <---- that's just the best case scenario in which we are all hoping will come to fruition!

I've grown kinda fond of Cam in the past month or so. But I think you're going a little over board..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.


  • PMH4OWPW7JD2TDGWZKTOYL2T3E.jpg

  • Topics

  • Posts

    • I love Kemba but that was the only time MJ being cheap worked out well for the hornets. Paying him a super max would have been one of the worst contracts in NBA history even if his knees didn't give out. That era of the hornets would get smoked by at least 40 by this current roster 
    • Took cash out for 84 before the usa game. Didn't like the corners. If this one hits will probably put 100 on Arizona to cover and the over against Purdue 
    • This is so much more than rankings.  Got tired of same old topics.  I see the thread beginning, "Breaking News: Panthers...." and then I open it and read the complete title of the thread "...OT Jordan Gross Retires."  So here is something to chew on:  Don't hurt my feelings.  LZ rates the bounty of talent at each position and I provide a quote from his article.  It changed my approach. https://www.nfl.com/news/ranking-11-position-groups-in-2026-nfl-draft-from-strongest-to-weakest-edge-rusher-linebacker-loaded #1: Edge: Lance predicts the Edge position will, once again, dominate the first round and it is the strongest position.  If the Panthers draft an edge on day 1 or day 2, Wow.  Phillips, Scourton, Princely, Jones, along with Hampton, Gipson, and Incoom.  Personally, I think we are going to let the others grab the Edge players forcing other positions to drop to us.  This strategy does not discount the fact that if a stud edge falls to 19… LZ:  “This class figures to provide a strong number of future starters, with as many as 17 players poised to come off the board in the first three rounds, but the quality of depth will trail off on Day 3. The edge defenders will rule the first round.” #2 Linebacker:  The Panthers added a starting Mike ILB in free agency, but the rest of the roster is depth. The need is for an off-ball LB who can cover.  Since it is my opinion that we draft a STARTER here, I would expect a first- or second-round pick  However, he makes a comment about the depth, suggesting that quality players could be found on early day 3. LZ: “Anthony Hill Jr. is a talented three-down option who could go on Day 1, while Jake Golday, CJ Allen and Jacob Rodriguez look like Round 2 selections as potential early starters. The linebacker group stays strong in Rounds 3 and 4, with decent depth stretching into the fifth round.” #3. Interior Offensive Line:  This one surprised me, powered by some guards that could go as early as round 2.  Remember, LZ is rating these positions based on projected starters.  He mentions that Center is strong based on short-armed OTs that will transition to center, claiming that starters can be found into the fifth round.  That is good news for the Panthers, who do not really need an immediate starter, but they need a future starter who can play a few years on a rookie contract. LZ: “Meanwhile, Connor Lew, Sam Hecht, Logan Jones and Brian Parker II could all become future starting centers, while Trey Zuhn III might not be far behind. The number of starters and the depth into Round 5 is what helps this group stand out.” #4. Wide Receiver:   Finding potential starters at WR is probably easier than C, but let’s not assume that WR is not a need in Charlotte.  TMac needs someone who can keep defenses from cheating in coverage.  Coker is very promising, but the others? I get the feeling that they are hoping XL comes around in year 3.  Regardless, if a WR is there that makes them better, they could pull the trigger–again–just not in round 1.  If the Panthers grab a WR, it will be for a 3rd-5th WR, which makes LZ’s comment interesting: LZ:  “In terms of starting talent, this offering is a little softer than those from some recent years, but there will be plenty of quality depth for WR3/4 roles inside of the first five rounds.” #5 Cornerback:  Yes, we have Horn and Jackson (in his final year at age 29) and Smith-Wade has been fairly good. Thornton was the second-rated rookie CB before his injury last year.  Could we use depth at nickel?  An outside CB?  I think we could add both, frankly. Future starters.  I love the nickel from Duke, who is not mentioned.   LZ:  “The depth at wide corner is lacking, but there are some very talented nickelbacks who will step into starting roles fairly quickly, including Avieon Terrell, Treydan Stukes, D'Angelo Ponds and Keionte Scott. It's worth noting that this might be the fastest cornerback group, from top to bottom, that we've ever seen.” #6(T) Safety: This prognosis could be why we re-signed Scott. However, it could also foreshadow why we might take a safety in rounds 1 or 2.  In my view, I think the value at S is not comparable, per round, to the value at other positions.  Remember the comment about moving Smith-Wade to safety?  I wonder if that was a stupid comment or someone in the know spewing inside info.  I want a safety, but I am not crazy about them in this draft. LZ:  “Ballhawking safeties like Bud Clark and A.J. Haulcy offer future starting value in the second round, as does Jalen Kilgore, who is a big, explosive down safety. I'm also a fan of VJ Payne from Kansas State, but in general, this group becomes average, depth-level talent fairly quickly on Day 3.” #6 (T) Tight End:  Sadiq is not described as elite, but could be a first-rounder.  Frankly, from the sounds of this, it is either reach for Sadiq in round 1 or wait until round 3.  I am not seeing a TE in this draft.  I know the Panthers want one, but how much?   LZ: (After Sadiq round 1)--We might not see many second-round TE picks, but this group is fairly deep in Rounds 3 through 5, featuring some solid pass catchers and a very strong run blocker in Sam Roush out of Stanford. The 2026 draft could produce a sneaky-high number of tight ends who earn second NFL contracts.” #8 (T) Defensive Line: This group is hard to gauge, and drafting one where the Panthers pick seems a bit awkward on day 1.  Nobody is worth #19 and the elite DTs will be long gone by #53 or whatever.  However, I like some of the second-tier players.  It seems NTs are abundant, but 3Ts are in short supply.  Maybe a player like Holten or Jackson in round 3 or (sleeper) Capehart around 3-4. LZ:  (Borderline first-rounders:  Banks, McDonald, Woods)  “Beyond that talented trio, the position offers a series of future starters/rotational contributors on Day 2.” #8 (T) Offensive Tackle:  Yikes.  LZ is not really high on this group, and he provides reasons.  My take?  Many are good pass protectors, but struggie in run support. Walker is seeming like a great signing right now.  I think we grab the RT later, but LZ’s comments about mid round talent demonstrates that there is a lot of risk from top to bottom this year.  Personally, I think we might draft Parker early or Crownover later. LZ: Top prospects like Francis Mauigoa and Spencer Fano come with shorter-than-desired arms, while the gargantuan Kadyn Proctor is coming off a highly uneven season in pass protection. Caleb Lomu, Monroe Freeling and Max Iheanachor all have talent but are less polished than teams might like. There is an adequate number of starting-caliber bookends available early, but it becomes highly speculative for teams hunting quality depth by the middle of the third round. 10: Running Back.  Pass 11.  (Last) Quarterback:  This may be a place to find a developmental gem, an emergency QB who has longshot potential to compete should Bryce fail.  If people feel that this class is as bad as LZ suggests, could a gem fall into undrafted free agent status?   I think I would watch that dynamic. LZ;  Ty Simpson has a chance to become an NFL starter, but this is a below-average quarterback class with a low number of future starters and quality backups to choose from. It wouldn't shock me to see QB-hungry teams kick the can down the road and wait until next year.”   READING THE TEA LEAVES:  Of course, this is not to suggest that Lance Zierlein knows all and sees all.  But I will say that he is a good talent evaluator and he talks to the people in the front offices that we do not have access to.  We are often misled by hacks making crap up to get clicks and hits–and this is part of that environment, so “grain of salt.”   After reading this, I had the following thoughts: Taking an OT in round 1 seems like a mistake under most circumstances.  I think we need to find a RT to develop later in the draft.  I think we will add someone like Jude Bowery from Boston College in round 4.  I think we need to look at OT on both sides as if we have 1 year to groom a starter. If there is a run on Edges, a solid WR will be sitting there.  We could have a situation where the BPAs at #19 are either an edge or WR.  How would an elite WR help us?   At safety, if a team falls in love with Oregon FS Thienemen, the lack of depth behind him could force a reach. Could Carolina be that team?   The Panthers signed a decent C to a one-year contract. Centers with eventual starting ability can be found in rounds 3, 4, and even 5. Expect the Panthers to draft a center in round 4.  Yes, round 4.  I even predict Brian Parker from Duke.  Eerie, huh? We will be drafting a LB early, but I am guessing second round.  The next panther starting W ILB is going to be Rodriguez or Golday.  Madly on fire with my specific predictions–in round 2. Tight End?  Unless we dive in early, I do not see the upgrade.  I am willing to predict that we don’t draft a TE. Cornerback:  We will add a CB, probably a nickel (where there is value) late.  Defensive Line: Depending on what happens in round 1, Defensive line could be a late day 2 pick.   This may shock some of you.  I live on the edge.   ROUND 1:  Best value:  Edge, Wide Receiver, Cornerback.  I predict overdrafting OT and a run on edge will drop WRs and maybeCB  lower and a great value could land in our lap.  Could we do it again?  In the words of Brittany Spears, “Oops.” Corner?  Well, I think we will move Smith-Wade to FS at some point.  Smart, calls coverages.  Jackson is gone after 2026. . Get a nickel later, however, unless a stud CB falls. Please don’t draft TE here. Edge?  On paper, we are strong, but you can never have enough pass rushers.  We will leave awesome at one position that we may not have listed as a primary need: Edge, CB, or WR. ROUND 2:  Best Value: Linebacker.  I do not see us drafting another position here.  LB–Hill (longshot), Rodgriguez, Golday. Edge (second tier–Height, Jacas, Moore, Young, Howell–would be hard to overlook, but our GM is a former LB)  S A Haulcy is a darkhorse possibility. ROUND 3:  Best Value:  Defensive line. Halton (OK), Jackson (Fl. St), Durant (Penn State).   ROUND 4:  Best Value: Center.  Slaughter, Hecht, Jones, Lew, Coogan, Jones, Zuhn.  This is the only real option.  We should take our center in round 4. ROUND 5:  Best value:  They will be looking for a developmental OT here if not addressed sooner.  Jude Bowery ((BC), D. Crownover (RT-Tex AM), Wagner (RT-Notre Dame) seem promising.   
×
×
  • Create New...