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The race for Andrew Luck


hepcat

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I saw an article on ESPN Insider about who could likely hold the #1 pick in the 2012 NFL draft and choose Andrew Luck. Here I outline the 5 times I think could wind up with the worst record and choose the heralded QB.

#1: Kansas City Chiefs

After getting blown out in consecutive weeks against the usual bottom feeders in Buffalo and Detroit, you've gotta put them at the top of the list. They lost their most explosive offensive playmaker in Jamaal Charles and key defensive cog in saftey Eric Berry. Matt Cassel hasn't done anything to keep his team in the game and I hate to say this early that they are out of the playoff race. They might scrape together a few divisional wins, but even now it looks unlikely.

#2: Seattle Seahawks

Seattle greatly overachieved in 2010 and look a few steps back this year. Matt Hasslebeck had a resurgence last season and this year they have the perpetually awful Tavaris Jackson starting at QB. They could pull out a few wins playing in the NFC West, but all their competition in their division look stronger than last year and the Seahawks have definitely regressed.

#3: Indianapolis Colts

All depends on if Peyton Manning returns this season. I can't see why he would. Manning floated the Colts for so many years, and no one really realized it until this year. It makes all the sense in the world for them to tank the season and draft Luck #1. Manning will be 37 next season and how many more games does he have left? Even if he plays until 40, having Luck learn under one of if not the best QBs to ever lace them up would be an arguably better situation than Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay.

#4: Minnesota Vikings

It gets a little murkier here, because the Vikings have some very talented players on their roster. But the QB situation is dismal and even after drafting Christian Ponder in the first round, I could see them drafting Luck if they find themselves at #1. Their division is arguably the second best in the NFL right now (behind the AFC East I'd say) and even stealing a few division wins will be tough for them.

#5: Jacksonville Jaguars

Tough to put them here. I considered putting the 49ers here but they have shown some grit in their first two games. Jacksonville did draft Blaine Gabbert in the first round last year, but who could pass on a prospect like Luck over someone like Gabbert? Again, this all depends on when they play Gabbert and how he does this year. If he has any degree of success, they probably won't end up #1. And Jack Del Rio has done a great job keeping Jacksonville around .500. It drives all of the 23 Jaguars fans nuts, but it's just enough to keep a coach from getting fired (as we saw with John Fox).

And a prospective #6 choice for worst record this year...and everyone will hate this...is Carolina. Newton has been incredible for a rookie in his first 2 games, but everyone should remember that Peyton Manning finished 3-13 in his rookie season, and Troy Aikman was 1-15. Would the Panthers draft Luck if they ended up #1? It's possible depending on how Newton plays out the season. If he keeps playing like he has, absolutely not. They could trade that pick for a pirates bounty and put all kinds of talent around Newton. But I still see Carolina being around 5-11 or 6-10 and having a top 10 pick. Hurney likes to deal on draft day and could parlay that pick into more choices.

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Who better to replace Peyton with?

It would set up a Panther / Colts SB in 2 years.

The Colts are going to need a lot more than Andrew Luck assuming that Peyton doesn't come back. He has been masking that team's deficiencies for years, and their other complementary players are aging. By the 2013 SuperBowl, Reggie Wayne will be 35, Dallas Clark will be 34, Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis, and Gary Brackett will be 33. Unless they absolutely nail the next 2 drafts, I can't see the Colts being a threat without Manning.

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Seattle may be the worst team talent wise, but they do play in the NFC West so that should give them a couple games.

Colts and Jaguars will battle each other for last place in that division, so they may end up with a couple wins.

Minnesota playing in a division with GB, Detroit, and Chicago could very well end up with the worst record.

KC has the injury bug this year, and the way Cassel is playing could give them the worst record.

I believe its between Minnesota and KC for Andrew Luck

anymore injuries for the Panthers, we may be right there with them

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