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Cam took a HUGE lead in the ROTY race today

tiger7_88

By tiger7_88,
in Carolina Panthers

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mav1234 Grand Master

mav1234

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Its crazy what someone can do with statistics to make a player look good huh? If Dalton should be OROY because of his wins and losses then there is no way any player should have more consideration that Randall Cobb of the Green Bay Packers. Yea, that would be ridiculous wouldn't it? Exactly the point with the Dalton talk.

I think that's a bit of a stretch, because Dalton has more to do with his team winning and losing than Cobb.

Joyner's argument (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7298032/why-andy-dalton-not-cam-newton-win-nfl-rookie-year-award-nfl) breaks down to a few things:

1) Dalton, over all, is making better decisions according to the "Bad Decision Rating" metric, where he has a 3.7 BDR, and you expect a vet to have under 3. Cam has a 5.0 BDR. On the other hand, Cam has a better BDR than Dalton in the 2nd half of the season, at 2.4 compared to Dalton's 3.3!

2) In the second half of the season (or after week 7 apparently) Dalton is completing 49% of his vertical (11+ yard) passes, for 6 TDs, 5 INTs, 670 yards, for a 13.6 YPA. In passes that are 20+ yards, he has a 59% completion percentage, 4 TD, 3 INT, and 20.2 YPA. In contrast, Cam is at 52% completion for vertical passes, 3 TDs, 3 INTs, and 10.7 YPA. On 20+ yard passes, Cam has 40% completion percentage with 1 TD, 1 INT, and an 11.4 YPA. Joyner argues that Cam's overall YPA this year is mostly due to short dumpoffs that go great distances.

3) The wins. Whatever, we know this one.

In a tweet earlier, Joyner told me that if Cam continues to play like he did today he'd be the obvious OROY choice. So this article was obviously written before that, but thought I'd share.

By no means do I agree with him btw, just trying to share with those of you who don't have insider what he says.

I saw that. KC Joyner has had a problem with Cam since the beginning. He also said he wasn't a first round pick and would likely fail in the NFL.

Oh yeah he used yards per attempt and Cam has like 50 more attempts than Dalton but Joyner referred to Cam's success as "dinking and dunking"

re: the dink and dunking, that's because Dalton's YPA is actually greater on throws between 11 and 40 yards. Cam has an advantage behind the line of scrimmage and up to 11 yards in terms of YPA, and at 41+ yards (lol)

I did point out that his one single analysis is kinda silly considering Cam's game is much more than just vertical passing YPA. He never responded to that one, but he did say Cam could win OROY by playing like he did this way the rest of the way out.

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mav1234 Grand Master

mav1234

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17 TDs 12 INTs (Dalton) or 26 TDs 14 INTS (:cam:)???

/discussion

tbqh I think it is a bit of an unfair comparison because rushing TDs are not the same as passing TDs entirely. Also Dalton would be at 18 in that comparison. ;)

We have a much more potent offense in virtually every conceivable way, but their team as a whole is far superior to ours. It's tough to really directly compare the two guys, which I think is why Joyner was trying to break it down further past individual stat categories, but I think that in doing that, you also lose the 'big picture' of how impressive some of those numbers are when you're talking about an individual award.

edit: also on TD/INTs, I think that straight TD/INT ratio is stupid. If you look at interceptions per attempt, Dalton is only 0.3% ahead of Cam. But if you look at TDs per attempt (obviously just passing) his lead looks much greater. Still, I think the two are much closer in pure passing ability than most of us want to accept... and it may even turn out that Dalton is a bit better of a pure passer.

The difference is that Cam is also a tremendous athlete, and that is part of being a quarterback. In Cam's case, it's a huge part... and while Dalton is an OK athlete he is not even close to Cam.

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teeray Rookie

teeray

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tbqh I think it is a bit of an unfair comparison because rushing TDs are not the same as passing TDs entirely. Also Dalton would be at 18 in that comparison. ;)

The stats I read were before today's game but all of the important stats aren't really close. Total yardage, TDs, etc.

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mav1234 Grand Master

mav1234

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The stats I read were before today's game but all of the important stats aren't really close. Total yardage, TDs, etc.

Nah they aren't, which is why Cam should win. Joyner is focusing on them as pure passers, where it's a bit different and a lot closer... probably because ESPN pays him just to make controversial statements with limited analysis at times. I really wish he'd do more complete writeups. His shorter ones feel more like he is trying to prove a point rather than actually examine the stats themselves.

Instead of breaking down Cam's and Dalton's games to explain in greater detail what is going on he basically focused on one somewhat narrow aspect, and that is where Dalton is currently doing well.

Is Mav back to being trd's sheep?

What are you talking about? I swear, some of you guys have this weird need to divide and define people as haters or whatever.

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Proudiddy Grand Master

Proudiddy

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I have confidence that when the AP looks at everything about both teams (us and the Bengals) and how teams have to prepare when playing them, the decision is way too easy.

Teams don't have to develop their gameplan around Andy Dalton. He's having a fine year, but he's not a gamechanger himself. IMO, AJ Green should be considered for ROY before Dalton. A lot of Dalton's production has to do with how deep and strong they are at WR and having a super-talented TE.

Our opponents have to develop their entire gameplan around Cam. How do they stop Cam? If they contain the run, they have to defend the pass, if they have success against the pass, they have to contain the run. He IS our offense and with his continued development, he's changing the way the QB position is being played.

The league has never seen a guy this big, strong, fast, and talented with the ability to learn this early and make the decisions he's making. It should be an easy decision. I certainly hope it is.

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