pff 3tfo: panthers @ saints

[nosuchthingasapanther]

i usually don't copy this much of an article...but this is some good poo.

 

from pff...

 

Newton and Williams vs. Saints Run Defense

 

Some see the Panthers’ recent winning streak and assume that Cam Newton has finally taken the leap as a polished NFL quarterback, but that’s simply not true. His -5.2 pass grade places him 21st out of 30 quarterbacks who have taken at least half their team’s snaps. He has a 63.9 quarterback rating on Deep Passes and is accurate on just 58.0% of his throws when under pressure. The good news is that he leads all quarterbacks in run grade for the third straight season. In short, Newton still makes most of his plays with his legs rather than his arm.

 

However, given recent history, the Panthers may not want to air the ball out much this week anyway. Since Newton joined the Panthers, the Saints’ efforts to stop Carolina’s running game have ranged from embarrassing to utterly hopeless. New Orleans allowed 492 rushing yards in their two losses to the Panthers last season, piling up 18 missed tackles in the process. DeAngelo Williams did the most damage, as 196 of his 210 rushing yards in last season’s finale came after contact. Carolina’s passing success feeds off its running game, as Newton has a 107.2 quarterback rating with play action passes versus just 79.9 without.

 

Despite recent results, the Saints have a better chance of stopping the Panthers’ running game this time around thanks to their improved defense. New Orleans has missed just 56 tackles this season after 128 last season. Akiem Hicks is emerging as an excellent run stopper in his second season; his 12.8 Run Stop Percentage is third-highest of any 3-4 defensive end with 100 run snaps this year. Rookie Kenny Vaccaro’s 14 run stops are tied for ninth-most among safeties. He has provided a spark to a secondary that has missed just 21 tackles this season after whiffing on 76 last year. Newton and Williams should expect more resistance from this new version of the Saints.

 

Brees vs. Kuechly and Davis

 

Despite their inept run defense, the Saints stayed in that Week 17 contest thanks to Drew Brees’ 396 yards and four touchdowns. The future Hall of Famer made full use of Darren Sproles and Jimmy Graham to own the middle of the field, collecting 82% of his yards on throws between the numbers. Graham had a season-high 16 targets and nine catches in that game, with much of the damage coming against linebackers Thomas Davis and Luke Kuechly. Flash back to his touchdown with 10:49 left in the third quarter; Davis lined up inside Graham, but the tight end quickly juked and muscled past him to get to the seam. Brees meanwhile froze Kuechly with play action, opening up the window to hit Graham in stride. Sproles presented a different challenge to the pair, zipping past them for 86 yards after the catch on eight receptions.

 

Sproles’ has had less of an impact this season as he’s struggling with injuries, but Pierre Thomas has been there to pick up the slack. While Sproles still leads all running backs with 495 receiving yards, Thomas tops the group with 542 yards after the catch. Altogether, the Saints’ 130 completions to their running backs this season are by far the most of any team. Graham’s 425 yards from the slot, where he’s most likely to encounter Davis and Kuechly, is second among tight ends this season. But those Panthers fans who watched K.J. Wright hold the Saints to just 21 yards after catch on 9 targets into his coverage on Monday night have reason to hope for an equally impressive performance this Sunday. Davis is right behind Wright this season with a +9.1 coverage grade, fourth-highest among all NFL linebackers. Though he allowed 78.1% of targets into his coverage to be caught, only 30% of those receptions have gone for a first down.

 

The weak link in this matchup may be Kuechly. Though he’s garnered Defensive Player of the Year hype thanks to the strong efforts of the Panthers defense, he’s been far from reliable in coverage this season with a -1.5 grade. Three weeks ago the Patriots, who also heavily target their tight ends and running backs, gashed him for four first downs on five targets. With 13:01 left in the fourth quarter, Kuechly bit on a run fake so badly that he was trailing Kenbrell Thompkins by 8 yards when the receiver caught the pass. Kuechly’s aggressiveness makes him actively involved in nearly every play, but that has hurt him nearly as much as it’s helped him this season. He must stay more disciplined against Brees.

 

Brown and Strief vs. Hardy and Johnson

 

Davis and Kuechly’s chances will be a lot better if they get strong support from one of the best pass rushing duos in recent seasons, defensive ends Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy. Hardy may not have the big contract that Johnson does, but his 54 quarterback pressures this season are the fourth-most of any 4-3 defensive end. He’ll face off Sunday against the weak link of the Saints’ line, left tackle Charles Brown. In his first year as a full-time starter, Brown has allowed the ninth-most quarterback pressures of any offensive tackle and incurred the second-most penalties. This blindside matchup certainly looks to favor the Panthers.

 

On the opposite edge we’ll find the more high-profile clash, as Johnson, with the third-highest Pass Rusingh Productivity of any 4-3 defensive end, will battle Zach Strief, who owns the highest pass blocking grade of any right tackle. Johnson got the best of this matchup last time, beating Strief to the outside for two sacks. Strief has only allowed three sacks this season, but each one has resulted in a forced fumble (including Michael Bennett’s scoop-and-score Monday night that kicked off the Seahawks’ rout). This isn’t surprising, as Brees has traditionally struggled the most when facing pressure from right tackle. Both Johnson and Strief enter this contest at the top of their game but slightly hampered by injuries. In a pivotal game that will alter the landscape of the NFC playoffs, this could be the single matchup that tips the scales in one team’s favor.

[Black]

Strief is questionable, right?

[PntherPryd]

he practiced all week. he will play

[jtnc]

It's really hard to take PFF seriously with stuff like this.

Some see the Panthers’ recent winning streak and assume that Cam Newton has finally taken the leap as a polished NFL quarterback, but that’s simply not true. His -5.2 pass grade places him 21st out of 30 quarterbacks

ANYONE who had watched Cam in all of his pro games can tell there's a major difference with this season than the rest.

[PntherPryd]

PFF is a great tool.  

 

take that any way you want to.

[Razeyfingers]

Cams been unfortunate enough to earn that -5.2 passing grade only because the receivers have had some bad drops. Homer or not, when I see a 3 guys capable of making one handed catches dropping wide pen catches, it just seems a little obvious to me.

 

I guess this dude that wrote the article doesnt watch the games. Pff and Bill Barnwell at Grantland are my two favorite sites but that part of the article is not fully explained. If Ginn could catch better, his passing #'s would look like first year back when Smitty still had all his legs.

[Swan]

All analytics man.

[bleys]

Carolina’s passing success feeds off its running game, as Newton has a 107.2 quarterback rating with play action passes versus just 79.9 without.

 

 

didn't I just see a stat that said the exact opposite?

[Growl]

why are people still acting like we are some run heavy team.

[The_Mango55]

I don't know exactly how they judge "under pressure" and how it differs from other places, but from everything I've seen Cam is one of the best QBs under pressure this season.

[intangiblejohnny]

So, Cam sucked his first two years becauase he had unreal stats but couldn't win.

Now, Cam sucks because he sacrifices stats for wins....awesome...

This sh1t infuriates me!!!

[The Huddler]

You hypocrites. Yeah, you huddlers..

*according to pff Star Lotulelei is the best run stuffing DT in the leage*

The average huddler.. " fug yeah we hit the gem. Pff said it it must be true."

*according to pff, cam newton sucks*

The average huddler.. " bullshit. Pff is trash."

Which one is it?

There is only one stat that matters, and its has nothing to do with pff.

Its called winning and the last 16 games were 13-3. All of the stat gurus and nerds can continue to waste their time.

Edit: basically, everyone can just suck it.

[L-TownCat]

What tha fug did I just read? So Cam sucks, Luke and TD suck and Breez and co are gonna rape us. got it. Thanks pff. Glad that's all cleared up.

[MasterAwesome]

You hypocrites. Yeah, you huddlers..

*according to pff Star Lotulelei is the best run stuffing DT in the leage*

The average huddler.. " fug yeah we hit the gem. Pff said it it must be true."

*according to pff, cam newton sucks*

The average huddler.. " bullshit. Pff is trash."

Which one is it?

There is only one stat that matters, and its has nothing to do with pff.

Its called winning and the last 16 games were 13-3. All of the stat gurus and nerds can continue to waste their time.

Edit: basically, everyone can just suck it.

Lol no one is praising Star because of his PFF rating...at least I hope not. PFF is just confirming what we've seen with our own eyes this season, Star is DA TROOF!! Cam on the other hand, we've seen him excel in the passing game for the most part this season, even leading a few game-winning drives in the 4th..hence the discontent with PFF.

I give more weight to PFFs DT ratings since I would think "run stop %" is an easier statistic to measure than a QBs passer rating as determined by PFF. Run Stop %...how many times the DT makes a play on the ball carrier to disrupt a run in the backfield or for a short gain. Not much of a grey area there...but I'm a little more skeptical about a QBs efficiency. There is so much that goes into a pass play - the blocking, catching, play calling, etc etc. QB efficiency just isn't as easy to measure...hence why there are quite a few different measures of passer rating (standard NFL QB Rating, ESPN QBR, PFF rating, I'm sure there are others).