Draft: Ideal position value by round

[Man Strength]

(based on other threads, figured I could post this here instead of draft forum)

 

I have done more mocks than is healthy on the two mock draft sites: http://first-pick.com/NFL/DraftGame.aspx and http://fanspeak.com/ontheclock

 

As such, in a very unscientific way, I have found certain talent depths and tiers per position along with my own amateur scouting using reports and watching video- http://draftbreakdown.com/video/

 

I also obviously have opinions on what we need (certainly WR/OT/CB, probably in that order), but I think the draft value is the best way to determine what we pick where.  So, from a macro level, i believe the best round by round drafting is:

 

1 - WR/OT - The top OT are likely to go before us, and the high impact WR will be gone by our 2nd round pick.  If an OT is there, say Lewan, ok take him, but otherwise we would be wise to take a WR.  After Watkins/Evans there is a group of about 6 WR which are all different style players but should have similar value.  After the first 5/6 OT (6 depending how you feel about Antonio Richardson, who very well may be gone by #28 anyways), there is significant depth at the position and you can get someone in the 3/4th at similar on a similar enough level as someone in the 1st.

 *Benjamin, Cooks, Landry, Mathews, Robinson / Lewan, Richardson

 

2- WR - unless you are a big Moncrief fan and truly think he will drop to the 3rd, its highly likely that most other likely rookie contributors will be gone by our 3 round pick.  Thus its risky to wait and I personally would would to lock in the WR value.  

 *really depends who falls

 

3- OT/WR - which ever position you didnt take in the first, you take here.  You should find solid OT value, and the WR value takes a serious nosedive after the 3rd. 

 *Hurst, Moses, Bitonio, Henderson / Moncrief, Davis, Richardson

 ** may be some intersting TE still available, so can go TE instead of WR

 

4- OT - We will need another OT in a year or two if not this year anyways, so best to go ahead and get one now. By the 5th, the liklehood of finding a non-project OT is very slim. 

 *Bitonio, Henderson, James......

 

5- CB - I dont think our zone system needs top end corner talent and Im not blown away by whats available this year.  That said we need secondary help and the backend of this draft is very deep with interesting talent.  There are a number of nice looking small school prospects as well

 * too many to list.  someone big who can tackle

 

6- CB/FS

 * see above, also add in FS (prefer CB, as FS or SS is easier to fill in FA)

 

7- FS/CB/DE - really depends who is available.  DE talent sucks this year, but some interesting late round options as you can never have too many sack artists. 

 *crapshoot

 

[Jackofalltrades]

I'd take it.

[Kuech the Sneak]

OL/WR are the biggest needs so BPA at those positions the first few rounds just seems logical

[Jackofalltrades]

I don't want the OT from Bama at this point, watching the Sooners dismantle him was hard to watch, even as a Sooners fan.

[Kuech the Sneak]

I don't want the OT from Bama at this point, watching the Sooners dismantle him was hard to watch, even as a Sooners fan.

I actually like him, but yeah he had a really rough bowl game. Good thing about him is he's got size and long arms, most mistakes are coachable in my opinion

[SauceBoss]

1. Best WR/CB available

2. Depending on what's taken, include OT

3. Best OL

4. OL/CB/DB

5. OL/RB/DB

6. RB/DB

7. OL

[MedellinHeel]

I am leaning

 

1st - WR

2nd - OT

3rd - OT

4th - BPA

5th - BPA

6th - BPA

7th - BPA

 

And that is with getting Nicks and some vet OL and CB help in FA. 

 

And also replacing Shula.

[IamSoClutch]

Great point. everyone is so obsessed with taking oline in the 1st but they fail to realize that 1st round grade OT will be gone by the 28th pick and if we wait for WR in the 2nd round they top contributors will be gone. The first 2 rounds have to go WR then OT in that order to get the best value

[Panthro]

I'd even say Playmaker in the 1st regardless of the position. Followed by consecutive OL picks.

[EightyNine]

Great point. everyone is so obsessed with taking oline in the 1st but they fail to realize that 1st round grade OT will be gone by the 28th pick and if we wait for WR in the 2nd round they top contributors will be gone. The first 2 rounds have to go WR then OT in that order to get the best value

 

Can anybody compare the success rate for late first round WRs to late first round OTs?

 

I agree that it probably is hard to get a good tackle at the end of the first.. usually tackles are in such high demand that a couple can go in the first round that you didnt even expect to.  Maybe we can get a right tackle or a really nasty guard if one is available.  

[Herbert The Love Bug]

Great point. everyone is so obsessed with taking oline in the 1st but they fail to realize that 1st round grade OT will be gone by the 28th pick and if we wait for WR in the 2nd round they top contributors will be gone. The first 2 rounds have to go WR then OT in that order to get the best value

You don't know that

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[Herbert The Love Bug]

I say we go all defense with this draft and make sure we have the #1 defense. Worry about offense next year

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[IamSoClutch]

You don't know that

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actually I do

[Car123]

1st: CB or OT

2nd: OT or CB

3rd OG

4th WR

5th TE

6th S

7th OLB or DE

7th Oline or CB