kungfoodude

Well, I took a look at three different measures of offensive line futility in 2020; Football Outsiders Adjusted Sack Rate, ESPN's Pass Block Win Rate and Pro Football References Pass Pressure Percentage. I took the bottom ten of each ranking, the QB with the most starts on the team and then compared them across a wide variety of QB statistical measures from multiple sources(PFR, Football Outsiders, NFL Next Gen Stats). This resulted in a group of 19 QB's from "oft pressured" teams. The amazing thing was that across a very wide variety of QB's(career backups, veteran journeymen, rookies, players with less than 3 years of NFL experience, elite QB's, etc), Sam Darnold managed to finish in the bottom five of almost every statistical category(10 of the 11, to be exact). So, while I completely understand that he didn't have good protection, none of these QB's had good protection last season, Darnold was just so consistently bad. The only other QB to be as consistently in the bottom five, was Dwayne Haskins. Frankly, there have been very few QB's in the NFL(if any) over the past three seasons that have been as bad as Sam Darnold. That should be a concern to every Panthers fan. How much of this is Adam Gase? Almost assuredly a decent chunk of it. How much of it is lack of talent around him? Probably a significant portion of it. But how much is just him not being able to have what it takes to be a successful NFL QB? That is the million dollar question. My fear, is that we are going to find out the answer to that question will end up being, "Enough to matter." Adjusted Sack Rate Bottom 10 10. Baltimore - Lamar Jackson 9. Cincinnati - Joe Burrow 8. Jacksonville - Gardner Minshew 7. Minnesota - Kirk Cousins 6. New York Giants - Daniel Jones 5. New England - Cam Newton 4. New York Jets - Sam Darnold 3. Seattle - Russell Wilson 2. Philadelphia - Carson Wentz 1. Houston - Deshaun Watson Pass Block Win Rate Bottom 10 10. Carolina - Teddy Bridgewater 9. Tennessee - Ryan Tannehill 8. Jacksonville - Gardner Minshew 7. Dallas Cowboys - Andy Dalton 6. Miami Dolphins - Tua Tagovailoa 5. Pittsburgh - Ben Roethlisberger 4. Cincinnati - Joe Burrow 3. New York Jets - Sam Darnold 2. Los Angeles Chargers - Justin Herbert 1. New York Giants - Daniel Jones Pressure Percentage Bottom 10 10. Houston - Deshaun Watson 9. Washington - Dwayne Haskins 8. San Francisco - Nick Mullens 7. Seattle - Russell Wilson 6. Denver - Drew Lock 5. Philadelphia - Carson Wentz 4. New York Jets - Sam Darnold 3. Los Angeles Chargers - Justin Herbert 2. New York Giants - Daniel Jones 1. Minnesota - Kirk Cousins Completion % 1. Watson - 70.2 2. Bridgewater 69.1 3. Wilson - 68.8 4. Cousins - 67.6 5. Herbert - 66.6 6. Minshew - 66.1 7. Newton - 65.8 8. Roethlisberger 65.6 9. Tannehill 65.5 10. Burrow - 65.3 11. Dalton - 64.9 12. Mullens - 64.7 13. Jackson - 64.4 14. Tagovailoa - 64.1 15. Jones - 62.5 16. Haskins - 61.4 17. Darnold - 59.6 18. Wentz - 57.4 19. Lock - 57.3 Total Yds/GM 1. Watson - 329.2 2. Herbert - 304.7 3. Wilson - 295.4 4. Burrow - 283.0 5. Cousins - 276.4 6. Minshew - 268.0 7. Bridgewater - 267.5 8. Tannehill - 255.3 9. Roethlisberger - 254.2 10. Jackson - 250.8 11. Mullens - 244.5 12. Wentz - 241.3 13. Jones - 240.4 14. Lock - 237.9 15. Newton - 216.6 16. Haskins - 212.2 17. Dalton 207.7 18. Darnold - 202.1 19. Tagovailoa - 192.3 Total TD's/GM 1. Wilson - 2.6 2. Tannehill - 2.5 3. Herbert - 2.4 4. Watson - 2.4 5. Cousins - 2.3 6. Jackson - 2.3 7. Roethlisberger - 2.2 8. Minshew - 1.9 9. Wentz - 1.7 10. Burrow - 1.6 11. Tagovailoa - 1.4 12. Lock - 1.4 13. Dalton - 1.3 14. Newton - 1.3 15. Bridgewater - 1.3 16. Mullens - 1.2 17. Darnold - 1.0 18. Jones - 0.9 19. Haskins - 0.8 Total TO's/GM 1. Tagovailoa - 0.5 2. Tannehill - 0.6 3. Watson - 0.8 4. Dalton - 0.8 5. Newton - 0.9 6. Roethlisberger - 0.9 7. Herbert - 1.0 8. Burrow - 1.0 9. Jackson - 1.0 10. Minshew - 1.0 11. Bridgewater - 1.1 12. Wilson - 1.2 13. Darnold - 1.2 14. Cousins - 1.3 15. Jones - 1.3 16. Lock - 1.4 17. Haskins - 1.6 18. Mullens - 1.7 19. Wentz - 1.8 TD% 1. Wilson - 7.2 2. Jackson - 6.9 3. Tannehill - 6.9 4. Cousins - 6.8 5. Watson - 6.1 6. Roethlisberger - 5.4 7. Herbert - 5.2 8. Minshew - 4.9 9. Dalton - 4.2 10. Tagovailoa - 3.8 11. Wentz - 3.7 12. Mullens - 3.7 13. Lock - 3.6 14. Burrow - 3.2 15. Bridgewater - 3.0 16. Jones - 2.5 17. Darnold - 2.5 18. Newton - 2.2 19. Haskins - 2.1 INT% 1. Burrow - 1.2 2. Watson - 1.3 3. Minshew - 1.5 4. Tannehill - 1.5 5. Roethlisberger - 1.6 6. Herbert - 1.7 7. Tagovailoa - 1.7 8. Jones - 2.2 9. Bridgewater - 2.2 10. Wilson - 2.3 11. Jackson - 2.4 12. Dalton - 2.4 13. Cousins - 2.5 14. Newton - 2.7 15. Haskins - 2.9 16. Darnold - 3.0 17. Wentz - 3.4 18. Lock - 3.4 19. Mullens - 3.7 QBR 1. Tannehill - 78.3 2. Jackson - 73.7 3. Wilson - 73.5 4. Watson - 70.5 5. Herbert - 69.5 6. Bridgewater - 64.2 7. Cousins - 63.2 8. Jones - 61.5 9. Roethlisberger - 60.1 10. Burrow - 56.2 11. Dalton - 53.8 12. Tagovailoa - 52.5 13. Minshew - 51.7 14. Wentz - 49.6 15. Lock - 48.8 16. Newton - 47.0 17. Mullens - 43.6 18. Darnold - 40.1 19. Haskins - 31.0 QB Rating 1. Watson - 112.4 2. Tannehill - 106.5 3. Wilson - 105.1 4. Cousins - 105.0 5. Jackson - 99.3 6. Herbert - 98.3 7. Minshew - 95.9 8. Roethlisberger - 94.1 9. Bridgewater - 92.1 10. Burrow - 89.8 11. Dalton - 87.3 12. Tagovailoa - 87.1 13. Mullens - 84.1 14. Newton - 82.9 15. Jones - 80.4 16. Lock - 75.4 17. Haskins - 73.0 18. Wentz - 72.8 19. Darnold - 72.7 AV 1. Wilson - 18 2. Jackson - 17 3. Tannehill - 17 4. Watson - 16 5. Cousins - 14 6. Herbert - 13 7. Newton - 12 8. Bridgewater - 12 9. Roethlisberger - 9 10. Jones - 8 11. Burrow - 7 12. Minshew - 6 13. Dalton - 5 14. Tagovailoa - 5 15. Mullens - 5 16. Lock - 5 17. Wentz - 4 18. Darnold - 3 19. Haskins - 0 DVOA 1. Watson 20.2 2. Tannehill 19.6 3. Cousins 12.0 4. Herbert 10.2 5. Wilson 8.1 6. Bridgewater 2.0 7. Roethlisberger 1.1 8. Jackson -0.7 9. Burrow -7.3 10. Mullens -7.7 11. Tagovailoa -8.5 12. Minshew -11.0 13. Lock -16.2 14. Dalton -16.7 15. Newton -17.7 16. Jones -22.4 17. Darnold -32.2 18. Wentz -35.9 19. Haskins -40.1 Completion Percentage Above Expected 1. Watson +4.8 2. Cousins +4.3 3. Wilson +4.0 4. Burrow +3.7 5. Minshew +2.9 6. Tannehill +2.4 7. Bridgewater +2.3 8. Herbert +1.5 9. Dalton 0.0 10. Jones -0.5 11. Jackson -0.7 12. Tagovailoa -1.4 13. Roethlisberger -1.8 14. Newton -2.6 15. Nick Mullens -3.1 16. Darnold -3.2 17. Lock -3.9 18. Wentz -4.1 19. Haskins -7.1 Time To Throw 1. Roethlisberger - 2.30 2. Dalton - 2.50 3. Tagovailoa - 2.55 4. Haskins - 2.55 5. Bridgewater - 2.60 6. Mullens - 2.63 7. Burrow - 2.65 8. Herbert - 2.69 9. Tannehill - 2.69 10. Jones - 2.76 11. Minshew - 2.77 12. Newton - 2.84 13. Watson - 2.84 14. Darnold - 2.85 15. Drew Lock - 2.87 16. Cousins - 2.88 17. Wentz - 2.91 18. Wilson - 2.97 19. Jackson - 2.98

I know everyone wants to jump on Gase for setting Darnold up to fail, but I am concerned that he wasn't ever able to get up to NFL speed after three years. Certainly Gase deserves blame for not tailoring his offense to suit a more limited QB in Darnold but Sam also never was able to get up to speed, either. That is the thing that concerns me more than anything else. Perhaps he just isn't able to process at NFL speed.

Well, he had about the same reception as Teddy did. I expect we will see a similar arc if he is our season starter and we don't draft a QB at 8. Heavy support initially(Igo leading the charge, of course), mixed reviews as the season goes on and eventually full mutiny and abandonment of the "Team Darnold" ship towards the end of the year. We'll see though. The nice thing about thinking he won't be any better is that if I am wrong, it means the team I root for is better.

Most likely. It will be interesting to see the rest of his NFL career.

Wasn't the plan to have him move to safety this offseason?

Yeah, I am not against adding cheap depth, especially as a veteran. The Bouye signing being a great example of that.

The two dudes getting divorced as they finished their dream house is the most hilarious part. That sort of fits with everyone I know that has had a house built that wasn't a contractor. Stress level seems to be pretty high.

That seems suspect

Link?

I think people are really overplaying the "smokescreen" element.

I believe that would be extremely foolish to pass on a QB there, if one drops. But, I am starting to anticipate some level of foolishness, unfortunately. Hopefully I end up being as pleased with the draft as I was last draft.

Considering what it would cost, maybe even dumber than Hurney.

That would be beyond stupid. Like....next level dumb.

If that scenario plays out, we likely pass on one of the top two OT's and one of the top 4 QB's. I will be pretty pissed about that. I definitely won't be upset adding Pitts as a talented guy, but I don't think he helps us in the way we need help in the short term. I will say this, if Darnold can't get to 30 passing TD's with Moore, Anderson, Pitts and CMC.....we can just straight cut him after the 17th game as far as I am concerned.

I guess we will see.

The question is, why didn't we use him that way when we were in dire need last season? Either way, having competent LT play for a full season would be nice.

I wouldn't disagree in theory but I think Teddy sticking around is generally extremely unlikely

I think the performance under pressure will be another thing to watch. If he is able to re-program his bad habits when he is scrambling(where his decision making goes to absolute poo), that will be a big factor in him being successful

Why are we not including the full franchise history?

I don't have set stats for what I would consider success because Darnold has also been oft-injured, so I don’t know if totals will mean as much. I want to see him run the offense effectively and efficiently and for him to limit the bone headed errors. If he can perform at a Baker Mayfield level, I think that would be more than enough

The other part of that is getting the RIGHT football people in here. I suspect with this Darnold move we are gonna learn pretty quickly if we have the right staff or not.

I suspect keeping him is no longer an option. I don't think the relationship between the current staff and Teddy appears to be the best.

I think this is very likely the ultimate scenario. I think the league knows that he is likely to be cut and they can just negotiate a new contract versus have to negotiate his current bloated contract.

Speaking of delusional homerism..... I hope so, because the alternative is really, really bad. If this whole Rhule episode goes down in flames, I think we are gonna be looking at a pretty significant period of being a cellar dweller in the NFL. That is why I was so resistant to the kind of rebuild we were embarking on initially. Once you nose down into that dive, it makes it hard to pull up. Most franchises that opt to tear things down to the extent that we did spend an extended period of time in the NFL cellar before they are able to recover. The fact we were so competitive last year with such a terrible roster definitely gave us a lot of hope. I just hope it doesn't turn out to be Fool's gold.