BrianS

Getting to the SB over the past 20 years is not really as good an indicator as we would hope. The fact is that the last 20 years have been dominated by one player: Tom Brady. How different would the league have been if Brady didn't make it? Even when Brady isn't getting to the dance, there have only been four seasons since 2000 where Brady didn't win at least one game in the playoffs. How many teams / QB's did Brady knock out that otherwise might have gone on? It's crazy to think about.

Ok, so optimism. Got it. When Rhule fails next season: 1. Tepper must accept he is not the smartest guy in the room. Not even close. Hire a GM you trust to build your team, starting with the coach. Let your football guy (the GM) tell you who the hire should be. Challenge him, of course, but let him choose and hold him responsible. Prior to which, Tepper needs to ask trusted NFL sources their opinion on Fitts. 2. Tepper must accept that rebuilds don't take seven years . . . or five years . . . or even three years in the NFL today. Yes, after seven years of success you can say you've changed the culture to one of winning, but you don't need to change the culture first. In fact, you can't. Change the success, and culture will follow. 3. Tepper must accept that there is value in NFL experience. Seeking outsiders at times can be helpful, but tempering those outsiders with NFL experience is critical. These are the best things that can come out of keeping Matt Rhule another year. It's certainly optimistic to think that they will all happen, but these are the things that I can see as positives. In 2023.

Baker Mayfield is definitely better than people give him credit for. But seriously, Cleveland would have to be 10 kinds of stupid to get rid of him. Consider: Prior to Baker, the last QB to have a winning season in Cleveland was . . . Derek Anderson (2007). Prior to Baker, the last QB to lead the Browns to the playoffs was . . . Tim Couch (2002). The Browns are nearly the Jets over the last 20 years. And Baker has looked pretty good there. If he gets out of Cleveland, onto a truly GOOD team, he'll be seen in a very different light.

Jimmy G is TB5 with a SLIGHTLY better arm. In a really good offense, JG can look good managing games. Just don't ask him to win them.

Anyone who still believes a QB requires an excellent OLine to succeed needs to go watch the Bengals play. Burrow was absolutely under siege all day, heck all season. Dude is a baller. I was a Burrow doubter, looked like a one season wonder. I was wrong. Something obviously just "clicked" for him that last year in college.

I mean, surely he hasn't looked at our roster, right?

No. Darnold is not a Pro Bowl player, regardless of line. No one has been able to teach Darnold to make decisions more quickly, which is his problem. The three R's. Read, Recognize, React. He's a second slow on that and in the NFL, that's the difference between a Pro Bowl QB and backup.

Objectively true. McAdoo has a .464 win percentage as a head coach - even been to the playoffs and had a winning season.

The whole Rhule / Pickett thing bothers me. Like, bad. Here's the thing: If you can bring yourself to look objectively at Pickett without the lens of connection to Rhule, he's actually a pretty good prospect. But the whole Rhule being in charge thing just makes me scared. I don't have confidence in his objectivity. Pickett might be a franchise QB. And if I knew that Rhule was going to be completely uninvolved in evaluation and drafting, I'd be ok with us taking him. If our SCOUTS think he's a franchise guy. But with Rhule involved and employing PJ Walker, I can't have any faith in the objectivity of our staff.

Context, the Panthers scored 500 points in 2015. With Mike Shula as our OC. Feels like 1000 years ago.

Rockstar. 1000%.

I hope so too man. You're right, I don't know on Horn and no one else does either. But CB is one of those positions that typically struggle right away in the NFL. Maybe he was just riding the overall play of the team, we'll see.

And that's where you go wrong. Just a quick glance shows me at least five. I would encourage you and other folks who want to make arguments like this to actually do some research and understand what you're saying. It's easy to have an opinion. The Patriots are a better team this year, clearly. But just as clearly, Mac Jones was part of that improvement. Better football minds than you or me looked at the situation there and made that exact analysis.

Established? Young? Yes. It would be a hard call, very hard, but franchise QB's are ridiculously valuable. Let's say Herbert, and build it up. Herbert for Burns? In heartbeat. No regrets. Herbert for Burns and Brown? Yep. I would. No problem. Herbert for Burns, Brown and Horn? Hard. Not because of Burns and Brown, but because Horn may be Richard Sherman or Darrell Revis. I'm not ready to crown him, but boy was he looking good. Locking down half the field might be the second most valuable asset in the league because like QB's, there are so few who can reliably do it.

If Cam had nothing - what changed? New England's leading receiver this year? Jakobi Meyers. Yep, there last year. Leading rusher this year? Damien Harris? Yep, there last year. QB this year? Rookie. I'll remind you, New England went from 27th in offense last year, with Cam, to 6th in offense this year. Why was Cam on the couch? It's really simple. Because 32 teams decided they were better off with guys like Minshew, Bridgewater, TAYSOM FRAKKING HILL and Taylor Heinecke than signing Cam off the couch. I love Cam. What he did for our team. I love the person he has become over the years. He's grown as a man. That's all you can ask of someone as a person. But the bottom line is that the beatings took their toll and Cam is now a trick play. He's not an NFL starter.

Demonstrably false. Laughably so in fact. Over the last three years, here are their stats next to each other: Cam - 361 / 583, 62% completion. 12 TD (2%), 16 INT (2.7%) Minsh - 542 / 857, 63% completion. 41 TD (4.8%), 12 INT (1.4%) More stats? Sure. Cam over the last three years is around 6 air yards per attempt. TEDDY BRIDGEWATER is averaging 7.2 - Minshew the same. Statistically, it's not even close. When you go to league wide opinion, it's the same. The Eagles traded a draft pick for Minshew while Cam Newton was sitting on his couch. I'm not saying Minshew is the answer. I'm not even really advocating we chase him. But people who cannot see that Cam is beyond DONE aren't playing with a full deck.

Yes, you pass. What you know is that BC is not a guard. That much was easy to see and identify. He might, in a couple years, be passable in a pinch on the interior. For half a game. But right now, evidence indicates he is not a guard. Now, let's flip the question. What if we do take a rookie LT. Assume he's the answer. Great. You have a bloody roster full of guys that you are 100% - 1000% - sure are NOT the answer inside. We got wrecked game in, game out. BC isn't going to help there. Deonte is a question mark. Now you have your fourth round+ picks left to solve the interior. Three positions of the absolute worst line play we've seen ever, and we're trying to solve it with fourth round picks? Effectively, you're rolling next year with bookend tackles and basically the same losers who caused 75% of our line problems this year. Free agency you say? Are you kidding me? Read the room man! No free agent worth a dime is coming here. Everyone on the planet (clearly, David Tepper is vacationing on Mars) knows that this is a team without coaching and low on talent. How do you attract a free agent? We did this to ourselves. Or, Tepper did it to ourselves I guess. Rhule is not the guy, and the problems this causes bleed down to nearly every level of the organization. Even a "rockstar" OC isn't going to fix this problem. The best we can do is mitigate. Trade down if you can, though I think that's incredibly unlikely. If you can't, take an IOL early since it's the only thing you have resembling a guaranteed fix.

I sometimes wonder if our fans even watch the games. It's like they don't. Was BC clearly the answer at LT? No. He wasn't. He also wasn't clearly NOT the answer. We just don't know. He played like a third round rookie with upside. You know what I am "1000%" sure of after watching the team? Our IOL is far, far worse off. I honestly wouldn't cry if we spent four picks on IOL this draft, including our first. It was that bad. We have got to anchor the middle, if we don't, nothing else will matter.

Statistically, the answer to the OP is no. First round QB's generally hit at about a 50% rate. Odds are three first round picks would be at least one good QB and at least one "something else". However, if someone said to me today, Justin Herbert or Joe Burrow for our next three first rounders I'd bite their hand off taking that deal. But in all seriousness, things have to fall right and your scouting has to work and your staff has to be good at development . . . so many cards have to fall into place. When the collective wisdom of the minds behind 32 NFL teams only get it right 50% of the time, who am I to guess at the next franchise QB to be drafted? Working under the assumption you pick a guy your scouts like every year, with two first round picks there's still a 25% chance that you end up with no QB. Even with three, there's still a 12.5% you end up with no QB. Unfortunately, QB's generally don't show themselves immediately as success or failure. Herbert and Burrow are very odd in that regard that it's very clear they ARE the real deal. It's usually a lot muddier. So while your franchise may be willing to spend three picks, you don't generally spend them three straight years. You draft a QB you believe in, give him a year or two and then decide he isn't it. Giving up three straight? That'd be hard.

Here's what I don't get: We employed, rostered and had active an actual fullback for the entire season. He played 162 snaps. Got offensive snaps in every single game. He had zero catches on zero targets and zero rushing attempts. He was STRICTLY a blocker when playing on offense. WHAT IS THE POINT?!?! Tommy Tremble came out of college as a rookie and his calling card, his "NFL Ready" attribute was his ability to just (*&@ing destroy people as a blocker. Tremble caught the ball reasonably well. He was used in the run game. We'll never mistake him for the all around threat that CMC is, but he was reasonably flexible and achieved quite a bit for a third round rookie. So why on earth did we spend a roster spot on a fullback? Tremble could have taken those snaps, and been an actual threat. Forced the defenses to question what was happening. I have nothing against Ricci, really, I don't. Seems like a good kid. But putting him in the game was an absolute telegraph to the opposing defense. He's going to be a blocker. He's never deployed in any other way! Follow him to the ball! Just another naive move by our coaching staff.

Incorrect. Hackett's best year, arguably, was 2017 when he was OC for the Jags. That team was the #5 scoring offense in the league . . . helped them get to the AFC Championship game . . . with Blake Bortles as the starting QB. Don't look at his work with Green Bay as the Aaron Rodgers effect. Look at Green Bay as "Here's what happens when you give Hackett exceptional tools"

Cheers for the next Adam Gase.

Absolutely agree. Rhule was ridiculously off base with that comment. In the end, defense (and the NFL as a whole) has only one measure that matters - SCORING. If your defense is top five in points per game, and you're not a playoff contender, it's pretty safe to say the problems lie elsewhere. I'm looking at you Denver Broncos and New Orleans Saints. Though, Saints, if I'm honest, your offense was fine. Keep it just like it is.

There are so many things to say here. Did we give up fewer yards because we kept turning the ball over? Absolutely. Likewise, we gave up more points because our opponents started closer to our goal line. It's not all that hard to score when you get the ball and only need a couple first downs to be in FG range. Our defense was dead last in opponent starting field position. No other team's defense started, on average, in worse position. Our defense has flaws, I will readily grant this. However, we are not NEARLY as far away from being a true top 10 defense as some metrics (and fans, and pundits) would like us to believe. Give the Panthers an offense that isn't historically bad - even just an average NFL offense - and you'll probably see quickly that we have a defense which can be pretty darn good.

So, instead of Rhule, we could have a chance at a guy who many teams view as the next offensive mind. Yet here we are . . .