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Vegas says we win 8 games this year


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fwiw Vegas only wants maximum amount of bets on both sides.  They are not really predicting a win total.

While technically most of the time the best way to get even money on both sides is to mathematically start with an accurate prediction. There are a couple of companies that set lines and they rely on shedloads of data.

 

For bigger games or matches where there will be obvious biased betting the casinos may move the line away from a data driven line at the start. Example of this would be Ladbrokes setting a line on an England vs Germany world cup final in England. Way more money will be going to England that any data would suggest.

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