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Historical Correlation between 3rd Preseason Game and Season Record (for last 12 seasons)


iBBB

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So I was intrigued by the idea that the 3rd preseason game is an indicator of how the season will pan out.

The performance of the players in that game might be telling of the season to come, sure, but the actual game outcome does not.

 

It turns out that there is no correlation between the outcome of the this game and season record. 

Here is what I put together. Have a look....

3rd Preseason Game.PNG

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I plugged your data into excel to run a quick OLS regression.  Using Panthers wins/losses, point differential, and opponent's record as independent variables and Panthers season record as the dependent variable, I only get an R^2 of ~.36.  None of the p-values appear significant, so as a whole the regression doesn't seem to tell us much.  When I regress Panthers season record on point differential, I still end up with a ~.35 R^2 and the p-value is much lower.  Seems like the point differential has the most predictive power. (I realize this is by no means a thorough statistical analysis - my intent is just to provide info to those who are curious)

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I plugged your data into excel to run a quick OLS regression.  Using Panthers wins/losses, point differential, and opponent's record as independent variables and Panthers season record as the dependent variable, I only get an R^2 of ~.36.  None of the p-values appear significant, so as a whole the regression doesn't seem to tell us much.  When I regress Panthers season record on point differential, I still end up with a ~.35 R^2 and the p-value is much lower.  Seems like the point differential has the most predictive power. (I realize this is by no means a thorough statistical analysis - my intent is just to provide info to those who are curious)

I agree, that's why I included the point differential.

I also thought that the strength of the teams we beat would also have a correctional to the season to come, but it doesn't.

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I agree, that's why I included the point differential.

I also thought that the strength of the teams we beat would also have a correctional to the season to come, but it doesn't.

Yep - surprising.  BTW - thank you for pulling the data together.

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50% is a direct correlation? 

I think not. 

8 preseason 3rd games won, only 4 winning seasons.

Now do the same for the rest of the league.

I think you misunderstood my post. I state that there is no correlation... 

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