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Strength of Schedule: OH NOES


Delhommey

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So you think your team has it made? Think twice if you're banking on an easy schedule being the reason. Last year, the Pittsburgh Steelers had the toughest schedule going into the season and they won Super Bowl XLIII. In fact, four of the teams with the five toughest schedules finished with 10 or more victories. Those with the easiest? Four of the bottom five didn't make the playoffs. Only the San Diego Chargers (8-8 in the regular season) qualified for the post-season. Below is a sample of the strength of schedules heading into this season:

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/etc/57897417.html

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The reason why teams have the toughest strength of schedule one year, is because they were one of the best teams the previous year. Ergo, it's no shock that they are still good the next year. Same goes for the ones with the easiest schedule - they sucked the previous year, so no shock if they suck again.

Really only 2 games are decided by the previous years record

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    • Yards a game works better over a longer period of time as well. Averages always work out over the long run. The smaller the sample size the easier it is to skew. Also opponents matter more when the size is small. Player 1 lights up 2 bad defenses in 4 starts vs Player 2 playing 10 games vs multiple defenses. It hard to make it apples to apples how it currently sits. Remember during Bryce’s little run last year how annoyed you were when people were pulling Bryce’s starts from week 9 on vs the whole season. 
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    • Player A - 2 starts.  200 yards in each start. He averages 200 yards a game.  Player B - 1 start.  Throws for 400 yards.  Comes in another random game and has 1 pass attempt on a Hail Mary to end the game that goes incomplete.   Now given the random game he appeared for a snap, he averages 200 yards a game. Thats why you isolate starts. If you are talking starter vs someone who began as a backup.  Simple made up numbers/situations to illustrate the point. 
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