Breaking the curse of "the year after"

[KB_fan]

Listening to some analyst discuss the Panthers on the radio recently, I was reminded of the huge challenge that faces the Panthers this season.  Even though we're back-to-back-to-back NFC South winners, the Panthers have STILL never had back-to-back winning seasons in their 21 year history.  We were pretty lucky (and gutsy) to eke out a division win in 2014 with a 7-8-1 record.

So, that got me thinking.  What caused the roller-coaster rides with 12-4 and 11-5 seasons being followed by 7 or 8 win seasons?

I've always assumed a huge part of it was roster turnover, and a quick glance at PFR's table of starting rosters by year seems to bear this out for most "year after seasons" - with perhaps one exception.

Here's PFR's one-page "at a glance" table of starting rosters over the years.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/car/lineups.htm

(I'm not sure it's 100% accurate, for instance I notice it doesn't list Star or KK as starting DTs in 2014.  (Star started 13 games that season, KK 9 games), but it's a good start for my purposes).

Below I've shown our starting rosters for each winning season, followed by "the year after," with starting players who were gone the following year (or in some cases injured, meaning they didn't start in at least 8 games the following season) highlighted in yellow.  In all but one year there was very significant turnover:

1996 - 1997:

Turnover:  13 of 26 starters from 1996 = 50%

 

2003 - 2004

Turnover:  13 of 25 starters from 2003 = 52%

 

2005 - 2006

Turnover:  12 of 24 starters from 2005 = 50%

 

2008-2009:  ....  Now here's where things get a lot more interesting:

Turnover:  4 of 25 starters on the 2008 roster = 16%

This is the "year after" situation that breaks the mold and shows that the Panthers' roller coaster rides can't always be explained by roster turnover.

All but 4 starters from our 2008 roster returned as starters in 2009.   I wasn't a Panthers' fan back then... I wasn't even paying any attention to the NFL then.  So for all you long-time Panthers fans and historians here like @PhillyB or @Mr. Scot  what happened in 2009 to derail the Panthers' season?  It wasn't a case of too much roster turnover in this case.

 

2013-2014:

(note I've added in Star Lotulelei (started 13 games) and Colin Cole (started 10 games) to the PFR Starters chart for 2014.  Not sure why they were not listed.  KK should also be there for 2014, but since he didn't "start" in 2013, I didn't bother to list him for 2014 as it didn't affect my turnover calculations.)

Turnover:  11 of 23 starters = 48%  (and that doesn't count the position shifts on the Oline that had Chandler & Bell playing at new positions in 2014.)

 

So.... for 4 of the 5 seasons following one of the Panthers' winning seasons, we had roughly 50% of the roster turnover.  Wow.... That is a pretty big challenge to overcome in order to maintain a winning record year after year.

Fortunately, it's looking like for the 2015-2016 "year after" scenario, we're going into the new season with historically low turnover - equivalent to the extremely low turnover we faced from 2008 to 2009.

 

2015 - 2016:

Obviously we don't know what the 2016 starting roster will look like yet - not at the start of the season, let alone the end of the season... but at the moment we're looking like we'll only lose 4 of our 25 starters (16%) from 2015.

(CORRECTION:  As a fellow commenter has pointer out, I failed to highlight Roman Harper as one of the departing players from 2015.  My bad.  Know he's gone, but must have been focused only on corners and temporarily blanked about Uncle Harp.  So, that makes 5 players gone from the 2015 roster for a turnover of 20%)

That should bode well for continued success...

I'd be curious, however, to hear other Panthers' fans takes on the reasons for the Panthers' past "year after" failures - especially in 2009.   How important is our roster continuity this season?  What encourages you for 2016?  What worries you in terms of the quest to have the first-ever back to back winning seasons in franchise history?

[jbland]

12 minutes ago, KB_fan said:

 

Jake Delhomme was what happened in 2009. His elbow finally gave out and he was never the same after the Arizona playoff game. For some unknown reason Hurney didnt see the writing on the wall and gave Jake the HUGE extension which started us down the path of cap hell. 

[Carolina Crazy V2]

Nice analysis! Norman is probably as big as a loss in one player that we've had, but Allen and Tillman were at positions that we rotate very frequently. Also Nortman is a damn punter and he wasn't all that good. 

[KB_fan]

2 minutes ago, jbland said:

Jake Delhomme was what happened in 2009. His elbow finally gave out and he was never the same after the Arizona playoff game. For some unknown reason Hurney didnt see the writing on the wall and gave Jake the HUGE extension which started us down the path of cap hell. 

Thanks, of course it was 2009 when Jake hit the wall.  I should have realized this from what I do know of Panthers' history.  I was thinking only of his epic playoff meltdown in 2008, and not remembering his struggles in 2009...

 

3 minutes ago, Carolina Crazy V2 said:

Nice analysis! Norman is probably as big as a loss in one player that we've had, but Allen and Tillman were at positions that we rotate very frequently. Also Nortman is a damn punter and he wasn't all that good. 

I *KNEW* someone was going to comment that losing a punter doesn't count!  LOL.  (True confession:  I nearly forgot to highlight Nortman's name...!  I initially wrote that we were only losing 3 "starters" from 2014, then I remembered Nortman.) 

[caatfan]

I think there's a confidence factor in play too, to some extent. The experts aren't bothered by the prospect of Brady being out for the 1st four games. They're being picked to not only win the division again, but even go 3-1 or 4-0 to start. 

OTOH the Panthers, even with winning the division 3 years in a row, don't inspire that same level of confidence. Historically we've been a yo-yo franchise, up one year and down the next. Despite the fact that we may be a better overall team this season (on paper anyway), I think many are looking for and expecting the traditional Carolina collapse. 

Quote

What encourages you for 2016?

1- The turnaround two years ago that let us climb out of the cellar and win the division. I think this GM and this coaching staff have not only put together a good team, but given them the confidence that they can win and win big. 

 2- Cam has matured and taken his game to another level, which has also inspired team confidence.

[KSpan]

9 minutes ago, jbland said:

Jake Delhomme was what happened in 2009. His elbow finally gave out and he was never the same after the Arizona playoff game. For some unknown reason Hurney didnt see the writing on the wall and gave Jake the HUGE extension which started us down the path of cap hell. 

Agreed that Jake's decline was a large reason for the 2009 failure. Not sure what you mean by "cap hell", as while unwise from a dollars-and-cents standpoint that move was a boon for the 2009 salary cap and was needed to free up space and his dead money mostly/entirely accelerated and fell off the books during the uncapped year in 2010.. That said, if this whole kick-the-can strategy is what you meant then I agree 100% that it was bound to catch up sooner rather than later (the past couple of years...)

Interesting article on the Delhomme deal: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/03/14/the-real-story-on-the-delhomme-deal/

Quote

So the present and future guarantees of $12.7 million were part of a $19 million signing bonus on a five-year deal — numbers that aren’t all that out of line given the overall quarterback market.  Smith worked with the Panthers to structure the deal in a manner that gave the team maximum cap space in 2009, and that ensured Delhomme would definitely get the money, in the same way he would have definitely gotten the money if he had received a $19 million signing bonus in 2009 with payments deferred into future years.

 

[Cj72]

I know 2004 was a heartbreaking year. I remember being all hyped up for the season following the Superbowl only to have Steve Smith go out for the year the very first game.  It was down hill from there until the last game that they choked away. 

[dpm0409]

14 minutes ago, KB_fan said:

Thanks, of course it was 2009 when Jake hit the wall.  I should have realized this from what I do know of Panthers' history.  I was thinking only of his epic playoff meltdown in 2008, and not remembering his struggles in 2009... 

Look no further than the '09 season opener against the Eagles.  I was there and it was terrible....

[Randolph Panther]

There were an awful lot of injuries in 2004 I remember.  

[Khyber53]

The big factors in 2009 were Delhomme's ability to play coming to a jarring, painful-to-watch, halt. The guy had been the heart and soul of the team for a while and when his elbow finally went (just couldn't come back from the surgery), he got the yips and the team just kind of imploded. Fox kept looking at the sorry state of the backup QBs and just kept sending Jake out there to die in front of the fans.

Fox also knew he was going to be a lame duck the next year and there was no way to get out early. JR was going to make Fox and Hurney walk the green mile to finish out their contracts, letting entropy and atrophy blow the team up for him. We were in cap hell and coaching literally started going down the tubes after the 2009 Eagles game. The thrilling roller coaster rides were over and Fox coached with all the joy of a worn out Dad driving his family back home two hours from a long day at Carowinds.

Thomas Davis was injured and no one knew how well he would eventually come back. Ken Lucas had been broken and run out of town by Smitty. Julius Peppers was here, but he sure as hell didn't want to be.

Williams and Stewart did both run for over 1,000 yards that year. That's literally all we could do. 

Delhomme's breakdown is the most oft cited reason for the bad year, but really it came down to leadership. When Jake broke, no one was there to step up and hold the team together. Coach Fox folded and basically started phoning it in, happy for it to be on Jake more than him. He eventually had to drag the beaten and bloodied QB off the field and take the slings and arrows himself.

 

[London Loves Luke]

The biggest thing that gives me hope is that this coaching staff has lived through and learned from glaring issues in the past.

We used to starts slow, for 2-3 seasons we never won a season opener, the last couple of seasons we've started stronger.

we used to struggle after bye weeks, last season we changed a few things and beat Seattle after the bye.

We've been through a successful season and slump after with this staff. There were definitely things that the coaches learnt from that experience and they'll be putting them into place from the first day of OTAs. Let's hope they learn the right lessons.

 

[AceMan]

That 2009 season will always agitate me. I remember our FO touting the "Returning 21 out of 22 starters" mantra after Delhomme's meltdown in the playoffs. Fox and Hurney threw away that season and the seasons after for Jake Delhomme.

[jbland]

1 hour ago, KSpan said:

Agreed that Jake's decline was a large reason for the 2009 failure. Not sure what you mean by "cap hell", as while unwise from a dollars-and-cents standpoint that move was a boon for the 2009 salary cap and was needed to free up space and his dead money mostly/entirely accelerated and fell off the books during the uncapped year in 2010.. That said, if this whole kick-the-can strategy is what you meant then I agree 100% that it was bound to catch up sooner rather than later (the past couple of years...)

Interesting article on the Delhomme deal: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/03/14/the-real-story-on-the-delhomme-deal/

 

With no time left on the clock. What a moment and game. 

[DaGreat_98]

I think that you can't do due diligence if you do not look at an often missed, but important piece to your argument. Understandably, when a team finishes as the division winner. You can say on paper that their competition will be tougher because of how the schedule will play out. When you are the division winner, you of course play your divisional games = 6. You then play an NFC division and a AFC division = 8 games. 6+8=14. Your remaining 2 games are against 2 teams in your conference that finished in the same place as you.

I do not know how history has played it, never looked that far into it, but this season, as in every season after winning the division, the Panthers will end up having 4 games against 4 Division champions, 3 from other NFC division and one NFC division. I think that mathematically makes it tougher because that means that the last place team in our division will play 4 bottom dwelling teams in a season.