Comparative approaches to roster building in the NFC South

[KB_fan]

Although 90 man rosters will remain very much in flux for the next 2 1/2 months prior to training camps and the pre-season, I thought it might be fun to take a WAY TOO EARLY look at the rosters across the NFC South.   In particular, as you compare them side by side, you can see we're taking a very different approach to roster building than our division rivals.  Of course, as the three-time division champ, we're in quite a different position than the other NFC South teams, so it makes perfect sense.  

Here's what I found when I compared rosters side by side, sorted by position:

Note: players listed as "DBs" on the rosters were grouped with CBs.  "OL" I grouped with Guards,  "OLBs" are grouped with DEs.

 

The Bucs are the only team in our division so far to have reached the full 90 player limit on their roster.  (Of course there will still be changes ahead).

Bucs have slightly over-weighted on offense and under-weighted on defense, while the reverse is true for the Saints.

I found it interesting to see which teams are over-weighting or under-weighting certain positions on their offseason rosters:

• Bucs have "extra" players at Tackle and TE and fewer players at Guard.
• Falcons have extra at Safety, Guard/OL and WR.  They are also clearly focused on DE/OLB, with fewer at LB.
• Panthers roster is pretty well balanced.  We have the highest number / % of DTs (no surprise with DG as our GM!) and are tied with the Bucs for a high # / % of TEs.
• Saints are very heavy at CB / DB.  A few of those CB/DB players may be Safeties, but even so, they've got a big group in the Secondary.  On paper, they're quite under-weighted at DE and over-weighted at LB, but it could be that some of their players listed as LBs are actually pass rushers.  I didn't have time to look too closely.  They also seem to be focusing on RB this offseason.

 

Perhaps MUCH more interesting to look at, however, from a comparative roster-building philosophy stand point, is to look at the number of rookies on each roster, and the distribution of rookies by position for each team.  The Panthers look VERY different in this respect than our division rivals:

Here again are the rosters broken into position group for each NFC South team, along with the number of rookies at each position and the % of rookies by position.

 

The most obvious thing to note is how few rookies the Panthers have added to their roster compared to the other teams... 7 fewer than the Bucs, 11 fewer than the Falcons.  This is totally true to recent practice (we've drafted the fewest players in the league since Gettleman arrived).  Not only does it stem from DG's philosophy ("better a dime than two nickels"), but it reflects where we are as a deep, well-balanced and winning team that doesn't need to overhaul things too much to compete.

 

Perhaps even more striking to me, however, than the difference in numbers of rookies the Panthers have added compared to the other NFC-S teams, is how our rookies are distributed across positions compared to other teams.

10 of the Panthers 16 rookies added to the roster are at just 3 positions:  CB, LB and TE.  (This is why the addition of extra TEs is so surprising to many of us.  It's not the mere fact of having 8 TEs currently on the roster, but having made such a significant and concentrated investment of rookies at that position - not a position too many of us thought needed such focus!)

Ignoring QB (no NFC-S team added a rookie QB this offseason) and Specialists:

• Panthers brought in rookies at only 8 of the 12 other positions.   What's REALLY surprising is how few rookies we've added in the trenches.  Only 1 on the Dline (but that of course is our 1st rounder Vernon Butler) and 1 (tryout player OG/OT Rigsbee) on the Oline.  Our rivals have brought in 8 - 10 rookies each on their lines.  DG must really believe in the young guys we've been developing at DE.   But I confess the failure to add rookies at Oline still seems a VERY curious omission given that 4 of our 5 current Oline starters are in contract years...!  It clearly shows that DG doesn't believe there's much value to be found among rookie Offensive linemen, or he really likes the guys we already have for depth (?!?!)
• Falcons brought in rookies at all 12 other positions.
• Bucs & Saints brought in rookies for 10 of the 12 other positions.

For each team I've highlighted positions where at least 3 rookies have been added, or where the % of rookies for a given position is at least 30% (the % is less meaningful for very small position groups such as FBs, however).

 

Based just on numbers of rookies added per position:

• Bucs are focused on LB, Tackle & TE
• Falcons are focused on LB, DBs (both CB & S), and WRs
• Panthers are focused on CB, LB and TE (both LB & TE being somewhat surprising as a focus!)
• Saints are focused on LB, CB/DB, G/OL & WR.

 

In terms of the positions where rookies make up the highest %, and therefore may most affect the roster makeup in the 2016 season:

• Bucs:  Oline (Guard / Tackle) & LB.
• Falcons:  LB, TE, DB
• Panthers:  TE, CB
• Saints:  Guard/Oline; WR; DE

(Note: this analysis doesn't take into account the "quality" of the rookies added to the roster, or what round they were drafted in.  Thus even though Vernon Butler will almost certainly be an impact player for the Panthers at DT, the fact that he is the only rookie added at that position means the overall rookie % for that position group may not be substantial.)

 

Anyway.... make of it what you will.  There is yet a lot of roster churning ahead, and so this doesn't mean too much yet.  I may revisit this in August...  But even so, you can see clear differences among the teams in our division in terms of how they go about roster building.   Dave Gettleman clearly has a somewhat unique approach!  So far it's working very well.  Here's to keeping our success going!

[Jeremy Igo]

Really solid read KBF. 

 

Seems like the Panthers have much less "throw poo at the wall and see what sticks" mentality. Much more targeted with the rookies knowing exactly what they want. 

[CoastalCat]

14 minutes ago, KB_fan said:

Here's what I found when I compared rosters side by side, sorted by position:

 

Love the breakdown!

They really don't seem all that different from a salary standpoint. The only thing that stands out to me is that the Saints have a bit of "feast or famine" on their defensive positions, but even that washes a bit if you take the number of players at those spots into consideration Otherwise, we're mostly within 2 percentage points on everything else. 

[Bsonetwo]

Man this is one of the best posts I've read in a really long time. 

[caatfan]

I like the data, and it'll be interesting to see how it holds up compared to coming out of camp. Right now it's like a mock draft for 2017- too many unknowns.

I bet not many of us would have guessed we'd be leading at the interior D line and TE positions.

[Khyber53]

You really have a thing for spreadsheets and examining data. 

The differences are pretty cool in how the rosters are being built, but I think we're also looking at DG being a couple of years ahead of his competition in building those rosters. He's bringing in the most rookies at positions where we'll need to see the effects three to four years from now (like in the TE grouping) or in the regular reshuffle of our DB situation.

In all the talk of the loss of Norman, we seem to forget that DG has reshuffled the deck for our defensive backfield each year, giving it a new twist here and there, elevating some younger players, bringing in some old vets. He might be looking for just the right combo to lock in, or he might just see advantages of keeping the costs down and simply putting in new blood each year.

Right now, Atlanta and New Orleans are still trying to stop the bleeding, while Tampa Bay is actually progressing in their rebuild. I think the Bucs are going to be our biggest challenger this year and a real rival next. The Saints are mired in contract hell and I just don't see Atlanta as working out... Sure is nice to be sitting here looking at Carolina and thinking we're not just the front runners, but a stable one, too.

[L-TownCat]

39 minutes ago, Jeremy Igo said:

Really solid read KBF. 

 

Seems like the Panthers have much less "throw poo at the wall and see what sticks" mentality. Much more targeted with the rookies knowing exactly what they want. 

But DG cuts people willy-nilly and whaaa whaaa I'm an emotional tart!

[pepaw]

Seeing the Saint/Falcon implosion has been so amazing.   

[KB_fan]

37 minutes ago, Khyber53 said:

You really have a thing for spreadsheets and examining data.

Yup, a not-so-secret-passion, I confess... honed by 20 years of data analysis and report writing for my job.  I like to develop hypotheses and see whether the data supports it, or to look for significant patterns and trends in statistics.  But with a reduced workload for much of the past 12 months and very little need for data analysis in my job the past year, I've had fun turning my naturally analytical mind towards football and the Panthers.

[KB_fan]

42 minutes ago, Khyber53 said:

He's bringing in the most rookies at positions where we'll need to see the effects three to four years from now (like in the TE grouping) or in the regular reshuffle of our DB situation.

Exactly.

It was pretty shocking to see in black & white in my Excel spreadsheet how we've concentrated so many of our rookies at TE & LB this season.  Not something most of us had on our radar.  It's one thing to know in my head who we've added, but then to realize how few rookies we've added at the other positions..., it was quite revealing.  It very much shows a clear plan in player development and speaks to DG's comments about "not getting instant oatmeal" any longer.  He knows we need time to develop new solid TEs and LBs... he's already looking ahead to the eventual retirements of TD and Greg (commence loud sobbing...!), and trying to find players to develop for both positions NOW.   I love it.

And it shows he believes in the job our coaches our doing.  He's confident in our DEs and RBs for instance.  Doesn't see a lot of need to add new rooks to those groups. 

I do confess I'm still a bit skeptical about the Oline, but I will wait to see what he's got in mind / who he's got in mid for those needs.

[caatfan]

47 minutes ago, Khyber53 said:

In all the talk of the loss of Norman, we seem to forget that DG has reshuffled the deck for our defensive backfield each year, giving it a new twist here and there, elevating some younger players, bringing in some old vets. He might be looking for just the right combo to lock in, or he might just see advantages of keeping the costs down and simply putting in new blood each year.

With Norman gone and the trenches shored up some, I think the approach shifted for the DB from rentals to permanent residents.

3 minutes ago, KB_fan said:

I do confess I'm still a bit skeptical about the Oline

I think that viewpoint is nearly universal in NFL fandom. lol

[Mr. Scot]

Good job as always, KB.

Of course, the Panthers just signed someone else to mess with you.

[CPF4LIFE]

It's hard to make this team

[the butch]

3 hours ago, KB_fan said:

Our rivals have brought in 8 - 10 rookies each on their lines.

You all want to know how to win at football, take a look at this right here.  You don't think DG knows that winning your division is the most important aspect of getting to the Super Bowl?  Knowing your primary opponents' weakness is a huge part of success.  Getup's philosophy, granted, has always been BPA, but he also takes an inside-out approach, leading me to believe he sees blood in the water in the NFCS and is attacking right where it hurts.

3 hours ago, KB_fan said:

Note: this analysis doesn't take into account the "quality" of the rookies added to the roster, or what round they were drafted in

I would imagine breaking up the first round into quarters, rounds 2 and 3 into thirds, and then weighting the rookies would require way too much judgment and skew the final outputs (and make it loads more complicated).

 

Good work, will read multiple times.  

We need to bring stickies back.