A Cool Graph about Turnover Differential & Wins

[KB_fan]

Saw this graph show up on Twitter last night, and found the original at Reddit.  Pretty cool stuff.  For now, I'm going to post it here without any commentary or further analysis, but I will be working soon on a longer blog entry with more analysis and data about our league-leading performance in creating turnovers during the 2015 season...  I've got one other entry in my "season-in-review" series I'm working to finish first (and hope to post later today, or tomorrow), then it will be on to a review of our turnover data.

https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/4lqu70/turnover_differential_vs_wins/

[Jeremy Igo]

I guess the moral of the story here i to be in the top right of the chart if you want to make the playoffs. Denver is the exception, with Peyton Manning negating the turnovers their defense got. 

 

Also.... look at Dallas.... lol

[uncfan888]

Cowboys are the anti-panthers haha

[KB_fan]

Yes, it's pretty striking to see the playoff teams except Denver all with a positive turnover differential, and a generally clear trend line between higher turnovers = higher wins.

Obviously, having the most wins and best turnover differential doesn't guarantee a team the Lombardi.  Sigh.  But it sure helped us get to the game.

I might try to verify whether the trend is as clear for other recent seasons.  I imagine it will be.  I'm pretty sure I once upon a time stumbled across some analysis that suggests turnover differential / net points scored off turnovers is one of the stats most closely correlated with being a playoff / super bowl contender.

[d-dave]

It's one of those truths.  If you create turnovers and don't give the ball up, you win.  Go figure.

[KB_fan]

I was looking up some stats at PFR yesterday for the blog entry I'm currently working on, and I happened to notice that we were 2nd in the league in terms of our average starting drive position.  A huge reason for that is the turnovers our defense forced:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2015/

Also, while looking at that table above, check out our average 2.4 points scored per drive... that led the league.  That stat will be featured in my next season-in-review blog entry... coming within the next 24 hours or so.

[imminent rogaine]

1 hour ago, KB_fan said:

I was looking up some stats at PFR yesterday for the blog entry I'm currently working on, and I happened to notice that we were 2nd in the league in terms of our average starting drive position.  A huge reason for that is the turnovers our defense forced:

 

I wonder what the teddy effect was. Is there a return yards above replacement stat, like WAR? Is WAR even a thing for football players?

[KB_fan]

22 minutes ago, imminent rogaine said:

I wonder what the teddy effect was. Is there a return yards above replacement stat, like WAR? Is WAR even a thing for football players?

Not sure about yards above replacement.... but you can find 2015 punt return data at PFR using the same link I posted above.  We were ranked 12th in avg yards / punt return, with an average of 9.4 yards/return.  Too bad that one return TD Teddy had was negated by a penalty...

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2015/

Unfortunately if you click on kick returns at PFR, you'll see that we were at the very bottom of the league in terms of average K/R yards in 2015.

In 2014 (without Ginn) we ranked 18th in punt returns with an average of 8 yards. [In 2014 our average starting drive position was our own 27.7 yard line - ranked 18th - a huge drop]

In 2013 (with Ginn) we were 12th with an average of 10.5 yards/return.  [In 2013 our average starting drive position was our 29.4 yard line - ranked 7th in the league]

So, certainly improvement in our punt returns was also a factor in our good starting field position.  No doubt about it.  But I'm pretty sure the turnovers we forced were the bigger factor.

[CoastalCat]

3 hours ago, KB_fan said:

Saw this graph show up on Twitter last night, and found the original at Reddit.  Pretty cool stuff.  For now, I'm going to post it here without any commentary or further analysis, but I will be working soon on a longer blog entry with more analysis and data about our league-leading performance in creating turnovers during the 2015 season...  I've got one other entry in my "season-in-review" series I'm working to finish first (and hope to post later today, or tomorrow), then it will be on to a review of our turnover data.

https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/4lqu70/turnover_differential_vs_wins/

The bad thing is that turnovers are a tougher thing to repeat than some of the offensive stuff. Here's to hoping that the team can make an owl in years other than AFC-South, NFC-East years only ones we've made the owl in so far). If not, bring on....2027? 

[KB_fan]

25 minutes ago, CoastalCat said:

Here's to hoping that the team can make an owl in years other than AFC-South, NFC-East years only ones we've made the owl in so far)

Wow... I had totally forgotten (early senility may be creeping in!) that 2003 was an AFC South / NFC East season.  Now that you mention it, I do remember folks here commenting on it at the start of 2015, but it had slipped my mind.

That may prompt me to look up our records against each division.  Quickly looking back:

In 2013 we split our 4 games against the NFC W with losses to Seattle and AZ, and wins against StL and SF (reg season).

In 2012 we went 2-2 against the AFC W with losses to Denver & KC.

In 2004 we split our 8 games with the AFC & NFC West 4-4.   But we also split in our division 3-3 and lost our games with the two other 1st place NFC teams (Packers and Eagles) to go 9-7.

 

Also, I may try to look at patterns of turnover differentials to see what I can find in terms of the longest streak of a very positive turnover differential.  Obviously we've lost some talent in our secondary, but we've got a pretty strong, hungry D.  Hopefully we can keep our forced turnover success going for awhile.

[CoastalCat]

37 minutes ago, KB_fan said:

Wow... I had totally forgotten (early senility may be creeping in!) that 2003 was an AFC South / NFC East season.  Now that you mention it, I do remember folks here commenting on it at the start of 2015, but it had slipped my mind.

That may prompt me to look up our records against each division.  Quickly looking back:

In 2013 we split our 4 games against the NFC W with losses to Seattle and AZ, and wins against StL and SF (reg season).

In 2012 we went 2-2 against the AFC W with losses to Denver & KC.

In 2004 we split our 8 games with the AFC & NFC West 4-4.   But we also split in our division 3-3 and lost our games with the two other 1st place NFC teams (Packers and Eagles) to go 9-7.

 

Also, I may try to look at patterns of turnover differentials to see what I can find in terms of the longest streak of a very positive turnover differential.  Obviously we've lost some talent in our secondary, but we've got a pretty strong, hungry D.  Hopefully we can keep our forced turnover success going for awhile.

I had a spreadsheet keeping track of our records vs. certain divisions for a while there, but don't think I've updated it since 2014ish. I know people will say that you can't really go by those because things change so much, but there seem to be a handful of perennial playoff teams, and strong divisions, since the last re-org in 2002. AFC North and NFC North seasons (7-8-1 in 2014 and 7-9 in 2002) come to mind. 

Also, we went 7-9 in 2004. 

[the butch]

Is there a way to do that same graph but for TO "efficiency" instead of straight up turnovers?  I guess I'm saying points scored against and for as a result of turnovers.  I'd like to see how teams positions jockey around.

[CoastalCat]

12 minutes ago, Dick the Butcher said:

Is there a way to do that same graph but for TO "efficiency" instead of straight up turnovers?  I guess I'm saying points scored against and for as a result of turnovers.  I'd like to see how teams positions jockey around.

That's a good idea. Not sure where to find those stats though, and I'm not a member of PFF.

[KB_fan]

19 minutes ago, Dick the Butcher said:

Is there a way to do that same graph but for TO "efficiency" instead of straight up turnovers?  I guess I'm saying points scored against and for as a result of turnovers.  I'd like to see how teams positions jockey around.

I can try and play with this over the weekend...  I'm not sure I'll promise to make such a fancy graph with the team logos, however...!