More fun with Panthers rookie database.... Comparing Fox and Rivera

[KB_fan]

With the research I did for my latest articles on Panthers rookie Corner Backs over the years, I now have quite a wealth of data re: the 221 Panthers rookies that made team rosters from 1995 - 2015.

One thing that really jumped out at me is how little rookies contributed to the team in many seasons under Coach John Fox.  His tenure was marked by lots of rookies on the roster each season, but often many of them ended up with an AV of 0 - no calculable contribution to the team's production.  It's a very sharp contrast to the Coach Rivera regime which has generally been marked by above average commitment to rookie development, and consequent high contributions from rookies to team AV.

I want to be careful here not to jump on Coach Fox.  I didn't follow the Panthers much at all during his tenure, so there may be background and context which explains this seeming failure to adequately exploit and develop a lot of rookie talent. 

For instance, I readily acknowledge that it's a lot harder for rookies to show a positive impact when measured by AV when a team has a stacked roster.  Rookies struggle to get playing time.  There was a lot of talent on the team in some of the Fox years.  I can understand it being hard for rookies to really make an impact.   We're even beginning to see this with Coach Rivera - Panthers rookie contribution to the team's AV was considerably lower in 2015 than in 2014 because the roster was already so deep.  Many promising rookies warmed the bench.

I also don't want to appear to blindly advocate starting rookies willy-nilly.  Some past research I've done pretty clearly demonstrates that a high % of rookie starters is correlated with fewer wins.  (Makes total sense... lots of rookie starts probably means some or all of the following:  1) a team is rebuilding; 2) a team is in Cap Hell  3) There are lots of injuries necessitating starting rookies or 4) a team is having a terrible season, therefore why not give the rookies some playing time....)

Anyway.... I thought it would interest Huddlers if I posted a few more tables from the Panthers rookie data analysis I've been doing this week:

Here's the breakdown of rookie data for each year grouped by the various coaching regimes:

 

I find this a really interesting table.  There are so many angles to take when looking at those numbers and trying to put them in context.   Here are a few of my observations:

1)  Ron Rivera is doing a really really nice job (in my opinion, which I think the figures above support) in rookie development.   In his five years he already has coached 19 rookies who had an Approximate Value (AV) of 3 or better in their rookie seasons, whereas John Fox only had 18 such rookies on his teams in 9 seasons.

 

2)  On the surface, George Seifert had the greatest success with rookies.  It's "impressive" to think he coached 8 rookies to an AV of 5 or above in their rookie seasons in his 3 year tenure.  But then you look more closely and you see that 5 of those very high AV rookie seasons occurred in 2001, the year the Panthers went 1 - 15.    (It just goes to show, you can't divorce data from context.  Without knowing the Panthers W-L record for each season, you lose a big part of the picture here.)

In such a season it's not a surprise that Panthers rookies would see a lot of playing time and have a chance to make a big impact.  Add in the talent of some of those 2001 rookies (Steve Smith, Dan Morgan, Kris Jenkins...) and you get a really odd combination.   A disastrous season, but some incredible rookie talent....!

 

3) It's interesting that there's only been one season in which no Panthers rookie had an AV of at least 3 in terms of their contribution to the team.  It's 2005, which may have been one of the most talented Panthers' team ever (Total Roster AV of 249, tied with the 1996 team for 2nd best in Panthers history, behind the 2015 Panthers which had a total roster AV of 256).   Again, rookie play time and contribution has to be assessed in the context of the overall team situation.   Look how dramatically rookie play time and AV has fluctuated under Rivera - one is less likely to start rookies (unless required due to injuries) when the team is playing well and making a strong play off push...

 

I'll post a bit more data from my Panthers rookie database in the next few comments...  Feel free to shout any questions about Panthers rookies that might interest you.  If I can answer them from my data I will.  But please note, my rookie database (at the moment) does NOT have info on individual stats like TDs, yards, interceptions...  I might try to add some of that soon.

[KB_fan]

To flesh out the table above, here is a list of all the rookies with an AV of 3+ by season.

I love looking at what Rivera did with our rookies in 2014.   Yes, a lot of the rookie play was necessitated by

1) Bad play

2) Injuries

3) Cap Hell = rebuilding several position groups

(Frankly we were pretty lucky to win our division in 2014... Yes the gutsy play at the end of the season and finally getting the right Oline combination & better players in the secondary were critical, but the other NFC South teams being utter disasters really helped us!)

But the playing time all 6 of those guys got in that tough season was invaluable and is a big part in giving us the incredible depth we have now.

Coaching is as much art as science I think.   You need to find a way to balance starting your best players with giving the newbies a chance to learn on the field.   So far Rivera looks to be doing it very well indeed.  (Yes I'm a BIG fan of Ron's I don't mind admitting it.   Hopefully it's based not just on his likeability, but also backed up by the numbers like those above.)

[KB_fan]

Anyone want to try and take a crack at guessing Panthers' top 8 rookies in terms of their AV rating in their rookie season?

I'll give you a hint.  #1 was #1.... no surprise there!

But there were a few names in those top 8 that really surprised me.

I'll post the answer - a table of top rookies by AV - here in a few hours.

[imminent rogaine]

5 minutes ago, KB_fan said:

Anyone want to try and take a crack at guessing Panthers' top 8 rookies in terms of their AV rating in their rookie season?

I'll give you a hint.  #1 was #1.... no surprise there!

But there were a few names in those top 8 that really surprised me.

I'll post the answer - a table of top rookies by AV - here in a few hours.

Keary Colbert

Manning Jr

Gamble

Peppers

Benjamin

Turner

Lotulelei

 

[Cyberjag]

In 2005, Thomas Davis was a rookie bouncing between safety and linebacker.  In 2009 and 2010 we didn't have first round choices.  Fox played his rookies, but just the first rounders.

[KB_fan]

Here's a look at all of the Panthers rookies during the John Fox years.    I'll post similar tables for the Ron Rivera era in the next comment.

 

What really leaps out at me is the sort of All or Nothing pattern.   Some great rookie talent and high AVs for rookies (the players highlighted in green).  But look at all the 0s (in yellow).

And then look at how very very very few "very solid" type rookie players there were in those years - AV of 3 or 4 (highlighted in blue)...  

This, more than anything is what makes me think that the Panthers coaching staff in these years really struggled in developing rookies.

[arbnranger]

Great stuff! 

 

[KB_fan]

Ok, here's what the rookie data looks like under Rivera & Co.

A lot fewer 0s (yellow).   A lot more 3s & 4s (blue).   Now of course, a lot of these fairly promising rookies are gone.... Injuries, competition, smoking pot .... forced some off the roster and we didn't benefit much from their talent beyond their rookie seasons, but this is always going to happen to any team.  

I think under Gettleman especially we see the value in working hard to strengthen the bottom of the roster.  Yes, there will be a lot of turnover, and "investment" in rookies and other marginal players that seems wasted.  But having a lot of these 3 and 4 AV rookies I think is overall quite a positive thing and I believe it shows a good job of player development.  Getting good production out of guys who might not have the top talent - increasingly important as as team keeps winning and drafts between 28 - 32 for multiple seasons!

[KB_fan]

Apologies if I've exploded people's brains with an overload of data today.   In the space of a few hours I've dumped on you all a lot research that it took me at least 7 - 8 days to do! 

But it helps me to write it up and post it while it's fresh in my memory, and I know we'll all be focused on training camp soon..... plus I'll be doing some traveling in August, so it may go very quiet on my end for awhile soon.

[Nate Dogg]

Wow.

[KB_fan]

15 minutes ago, Nate Dogg said:

Wow.

Yeah, that blew me away.

 

Spoiler alert:

He makes the list of top 8 rookies in terms of their AV.

[Ricky Spanish]

And this is why the whole "Rivera hates rookies" narrative never made any sense. The people banging that drum must not have been fans before Cam Newton because they obviously don't remember John Fox never playing any young guys and sticking with old vets far too long. 

[Randolph Panther]

Rivera is simply a better coach than Fox and one of the better ones in the NFL.

[L-TownCat]

The fox/Hurney apologists are not gonna like this.