Winners vs Losers & The Draft

[The_Rainmaker]

" Difference between a loser and a winner is that a winner plays until he wins."  Panthers may or may not make the playoff, but I would like to end the season on a winning note.

 

Although the season has not gone as expected, with injures & lack of talent, addressing 3 key position in the draft can turn Carolina into a complete team and content for the Superbowl. 

 

TE:  Jake Butt 6'-6" 250 lbs

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000682501/article/first-look-scouting-michigan-te-jake-butt

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Butt is an instinctive football player. Playing tight end is more about feel, awareness and subtlety than pure speed and athleticism. He's a skilled technician with excellent spatial awareness. He knows how to create separation at the top of his routes. He uses his body to lean on defenders and he snaps out of his break without wasting steps. He is deployed in-line, in the slot as well as split out wide. He routinely beats safeties and even cornerbacks locked in man coverage. He beat an Indiana cornerback up top on a stutter-go route. That's not something you see very often from a big tight end. He has outstanding hands. He attacks the ball in the air (see TD vs. Utah) and wins a lot of 50-50 balls. After the catch, he lacks elite speed but he's nifty to make defenders miss and he has the power to run through tackles. He doesn't go down easily.

 

RB:  Royce Freeman 6'-6" 250 lbs

https://www.profootballfocus.com/college-why-oregons-royce-freeman-should-be-one-of-nations-top-rbs-in-2016/

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He is incredibly productive

Freeman has posted excellent numbers in the two seasons we have graded every FBS college football game, and forced 44 missed tackles as a runner in 2014. That, coupled with his 2.5 yards after the carry average, helped him to a 5.4 yards per carry average.

It was a solid year, and there were also flashes that season of the eye-opening ability he possesses. Take the game against Washington as an example: Freeman carried the ball a season-high 29 times in that game, scoring four touchdowns and forcing four missed tackles. Of his 170 yards on the ground that day, 78 came after contact.

While 2014 was a solid season, with flashes of something much more, 2015 was the year where Freeman made a huge impact, and began to force himself into the conversation of the best running back in the nation. The Oregon offense had its early struggles, with quarterback Vernon Adams dealing with an injury and taking some time to find his feet after transferring from Eastern Washington. While Adams graded negatively in four of the first six games of the season, Freeman graded positively in all six, going on to finish every game of the 2015 season with a positive PFF grade. In fact, while Oregon struggled to click in the first six games of the year, Freeman has the third-highest overall grade among running backs, with only LSU’s Leonard Fournette and Ohio State’s Ezekiel Elliott grading better.

And extremely elusive…

What makes Freeman so special is just how difficult he is to bring down. He had the third-highest elusive rating (PFF’s measure of how effective a running back is at generating yardage independent of his blocking) in the nation in 2015 at 108.6. Only UCLA’s Paul Perkins (114.7) and Nevada’s James Butler (111.5) had a higher rating in that regard.

Freeman forced 80 missed tackles on the ground, and another nine as a receiver. In fact, he forced at least four missed tackles as a runner in 11 of 13 games last season, including seven in the Alamo Bowl loss to TCU. Those are incredibly impressive numbers, and backed up by what he regularly displays on game tape, like on this touchdown run versus the Horned Frogs. He bounces an inside run to the outside before making a sharp cut to avoid three defenders and then run through a third for the touchdown:

… and powerful, too.

What’s important to note with Freeman is just how strong of a runner he is — this is not a player who simply eludes tackles with quickness and speed. With a running style similar to former NFL and Miami Hurricanes running back Willis McGahee, Freeman has the power to run through defenders, and drag them with him. It helps that he has a 229-pound frame to aid him in that regard, with Freeman’s 3.8 yards after contact per carry average ranking 12th among all running backs in college football last year.

He has a similar body type to McGahee and, like him, Freeman can get the better of defenders by cutting past them or powering through them. Check out this example versus Oregon State when he rips his way through the middle linebacker’s tackle attempt to gain an additional six yards after contact:

He is a valuable weapon in the passing game

If there’s an area of improvement for Freeman this season, it’s that he wasn’t great in pass protection in 2015. He allowed a sack and eight hurries from 86 pass-blocking snaps in 2015, giving him a pass-blocking efficiency rating of 91.5, tied for 127th among the 149 running backs with at least 50 pass-blocking snaps last season.

The good news for Ducks fans, however, is that Freeman was better in 2014, ranking 60th of 161 backs with a pass-blocking efficiency rating of 96.1, allowing just five hurries from 97 pass-blocking snaps. If he can revert to this level of effectiveness in pass protection, then he’ll be very valuable in the passing game in general and on third downs in particular, because he is an excellent pass-catcher.

Freeman was really effective as a receiver out of the backfield in 2015, racking up 340 yards on 26 receptions, with just one drop to his name. In fact, from the 44 catchable passes thrown his way over the past two seasons, Freeman has dropped just two. He is dynamic once he gets the ball in his hands as a receiver, having forced nine missed tackles on those 26 receptions.

The Ducks could make use of Freeman as a receiver split out wide or in the slot more frequently in 2016. He had just 34 such snaps last year, but that included a big catch downfield on a go route against USC (see below). While he should be the focal point of the Oregon offense as a runner, there’s definitely opportunities for Oregon to get more use from him split out wide.

Bottom line

With a solid freshman campaign and an even more impressive sophomore campaign under his belt, Freeman is ready to mount a very serious run at the Heisman trophy — even pushing his fellow Pac-12 running back McCaffrey. The Oregon offense will run through him again in 2016, and with the player we’ve seen him become over the past two seasons, that’s something that should have fans in Eugene very excited.

 

 

 

 

 

 

DE:  AJ Jefferson 6'-3" 260 lbs

https://www.profootballfocus.com/draft-college-football-5-nfl-prospects-on-rise/

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CAREER: One of the SEC’s most disruptive defensive ends who returns for his senior season … Coming off a breakout junior season in which he earned starting role and led team in tackles for loss ... Played in 39 games with 13 starts ... Tallied 95 tackles, 24.5 tackles for loss, 9.5 sacks, five forced fumbles and four pass breakups … Ranks ninth in MSU career history in tackles for loss and is eight shy of the top five … His TFL are the most by a Bulldog in a career since Washington Redskin All-Rookie Preston Smith … Forced five turnovers in his career … Notched at least one TFL in 10 out of his last 14 games … 2016 will be his fifth year with the program after redshirting in 2012.

2015 JUNIOR SEASON: Delivered a breakout junior season in which he led the squad in tackles for loss (13.5) and was second in sacks (5.0) … Finished with 47 total tackles and had one forced fumble … Recorded at least one TFL in nine games, including the first six contests of the year … Started all 13 games at defensive end … Ranked ninth in the SEC in TFL and 11th in MSU single-season annals …  Made his first career start in the season-opening victory at Southern Miss (9/5), tallying seven tackles and a career-high two sacks … Tied a career high with two tackles for loss to go along with a career-high eight tackles versus No. 14 LSU (9/12) … Credited with five tackles, a career-high tying two tackles for loss, one sack and a forced fumble in the win at No. 25 Auburn (9/26) … Registered seven tackles, a career-high tying two tackles for loss and a sack vs. Troy (10/10) … Collected three tackles and a sack in the victory at Missouri (11/5) … Broke up two passes and had a tackle for loss in the win at Arkansas (11/21).

 

5. A.J. Jefferson, Edge, Mississippi State

Mississippi State likes to rotate a lot of players in and out along the defensive line, and that often leads top players flying under the radar. Jefferson has quietly performed well as part of the rotation the last two years, but he’s taken his game to a new level so far in 2016. He was one of the best players on the field last weekend against South Carolina, getting in on a sack, QB hit, two hurries and four run stops. It’s the best game we’ve seen from him in three years of grading, though he’s certainly flashed the big-play ability in each of the last two seasons. Like the others on the list, it’s all about bringing the same production throughout the season

 

 

[GoobyPls]

Njoku is the best TE prospect 

[The_Rainmaker]

1 minute ago, GoobyPls said:

Njoku is the best TE prospect 

Can you post some information about him.

[FootballLivesMatter]

JABRILL PEPPERS

LEONARD FOURNETTE

JAMAL ADAMS

QUINCY WILSON

TEEZ TABOR

CAM ROBINSON

[The_Rainmaker]

16 minutes ago, stbugs said:

First, it seemed like in the other thread you were talking about Butt and Freeman in the 1st. If you are, that's awful. Neither of those is anywhere near the talent we could get in the top 10. Butt could be a 3rd rounder, easily.

That said, go to walterfootball.com. I really like their draft coverage. They update the mocks (3 rounds) weekly (two different people) and then have a list of top prospects at each position for 2017, which has nice reads on all of the players and gives you their thoughts on guys who aren't in the mocks. Those are usually up to date as well with how they've played so far. Also, one of the best parts is they keep track of pro-days, who has visited with us and how (senior bowl, private visit, etc.). Really, really good source for pre-draft info.

In the other thread I was saying trade down and get two 1st round picks if possible

 

[ncfan]

Freeman's stock is falling fast. He was benched midway through this season for a little after a few poor showings.  

He does have the size speed combo but that's where the comparison to Stewart stops.  He really does not play that physical at all for a guy his size.  Stewart is a beast who's hard to bring down.

 

I Foreman and Perine better.  Both Big physical guys who are hard to bring down.  Foreman has a extra gear who looks to have broke off more long runs even at 245 pounds.

 

TEs Butt has become a good ball player but I'm not fully sure he'd be a great pickup for us.  His biggest downside scouts have noticed this year is his blocking.  Our #2 TE needs to be a good blocker.  Heck Dickson is a damn good TE.....but at that #1 TE where he's pass catcher.  Why waste a high pick on a guy who can't block but can catch to replace a guy who can catch but can't block playing in a blocking TE role.

Leggett who is bit more well rounded (reminds me of a slight poor mans Hunter Henry).  Or Jeremy Sprinkle who some thought had more upside and was a better Blocker at Arkansas.

 

Also when it comes to winners vs losers.  We always hear Gettleman about he wants winners.  And guys who hate to lose more than want to win, it gives them that drive.  Demarcus Walker, DE from FSU fits that to the T.  The guys produces but steps up and makes the big plays when it matters most (see huge showing 2nd half vs Ole Miss on huge comeback, blocked XP at end of Miami game for the win, and end of Florida game when it was close)

[My Goodness My Guinness]

8 minutes ago, ncfan said:

Freeman's stock is falling fast. He was benched midway through this season for a little after a few poor showings.  

He does have the size speed combo but that's where the comparison to Stewart stops.  He really does not play that physical at all for a guy his size.  Stewart is a beast who's hard to bring down.

 

I Foreman and Perine better.  Both Big physical guys who are hard to bring down.  Foreman has a extra gear who looks to have broke off more long runs even at 245 pounds.

 

TEs Butt has become a good ball player but I'm not fully sure he'd be a great pickup for us.  His biggest downside scouts have noticed this year is his blocking.  Our #2 TE needs to be a good blocker.  Heck Dickson is a damn good TE.....but at that #1 TE where he's pass catcher.  Why waste a high pick on a guy who can't block but can catch to replace a guy who can catch but can't block playing in a blocking TE role.

Leggett who is bit more well rounded (reminds me of a slight poor mans Hunter Henry).  Or Jeremy Sprinkle who some thought had more upside and was a better Blocker at Arkansas.

 

Also when it comes to winners vs losers.  We always hear Gettleman about he wants winners.  And guys who hate to lose more than want to win, it gives them that drive.  Demarcus Walker, DE from FSU fits that to the T.  The guys produces but steps up and makes the big plays when it matters most (see huge showing 2nd half vs Ole Miss on huge comeback, blocked XP at end of Miami game for the win, and end of Florida game when it was close)

Doesn't Oregon still run the wide open spread offense as well? Foreman's production has dropped this year because he no longer has the dual threat of Mariota to open up running lanes. His ability, or lack thereof, to elude defenders has been really exposed this year. 

[heel31ok]

3 hours ago, The_Rainmaker said:

In the other thread I was saying trade down and get two 1st round picks if possible

 

G-man does like to trade picks...

[Soul Rebel]

I'm good with a TE in the first 2-3 rounds this year for sure.

What about OJ Howard?

He was a beast towards the end of last year, blew up in the National Championship game, declined the draft and had high hopes of him being a top-20 pick this year.  I've heard very little of him.  

[Krovvy]

1 hour ago, heel31ok said:

G-man does like to trade picks...

He likes to trade away picks. Id say it's more more plausible that he trades up yet again than trading down.

[arbnranger]

Thanks for for info, some of us only follow one or two college teams closely. 

I have heard that Jake Butt is a little behind. 

[The_Rainmaker]

1 hour ago, stbugs said:

Ealy blew up in the SB and look at him now. Howard is going in the first round and I don't think I'd want a guy with 20 catches this season to be our pick at #40. Evan Engram in the late 2nd/our early 3rd would be much better IMHO. Leggett from Clemson is another who's a decent blocker as well. I would bet he's definitely available in the 3rd, as will Butt. I'd ignore Howard because there's going to be someone at a far needier position available if he's on the board at pick 40ish. I'd rather take another player there and take one of the many other good TEs later.

It's actually a good TE class. There's double the number of TEs ranked as high as the 3rd round as last year (on the site I like for draft prospects). People love to bash the Butler pick over Henry, but this class will have some solid TEs going lower that are better than the guys picked last year at similar spots.

We need somebody in mold of Greg Olsen but can block better, the whole point of a 2 TE is to get Olsen out on routes for big plays. 

I like Jake Butt so for but OJ Howard & Legget could be a good also. 

Although Legget could have the most potential in the Panther's scheme 

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings/2017/TE

[ncfan]

32 minutes ago, The_Rainmaker said:

We need somebody in mold of Greg Olsen but can block better, the whole point of a 2 TE is to get Olsen out on routes for big plays. 

I like Jake Butt so for but OJ Howard & Legget could be a good also. 

Although Legget could have the most potential in the Panther's scheme 

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings/2017/TE

This.  OJ Howard wouldnt do to much for us.  We'd be drafting a good receiving terrible blocking TE to replace a good receiving bad blocking TE to play the blocking #2 TE role.

About the same with Butt.  Good pass catcher but very underwhelming blocker.

 

Leggett is a good overall.  A poor mans Hunter Henry.  Good Receiver (reminds me a little of Olsen route running) but also a good blocker.

[The_Rainmaker]

Just now, ncfan said:

This.  OJ Howard wouldnt do to much for us.  We'd be drafting a good receiving terrible blocking TE to replace a good receiving bad blocking TE to play the blocking #2 TE role.

About the same with Butt.  Good pass catcher but very underwhelming blocker.

 

Leggett is a good overall.  A poor mans Hunter Henry.  Good Receiver (reminds me a little of Olsen route running) but also a good blocker.

I have seen Butt play his blocking has improved and has the tools to excel at it but I'll take Leggette.