Fournette in the first? What bothers me

[Ace_Aladdin]

1 hour ago, CRA said:

Okay, so I have obviously never been big on over investing in RBs in today's NFL.  I have always believed in cheap guys running behind good OLs is the best option.  Now a lot of people are calling Fournette a once in a decade type player and all that jazz...but I still don't think the value is there at 8 and would prefer a RB later (in a DEEP RB draft).

Here are my concerns:

The last 2 years Fournette has faced 5 teams with top 20 rush defense:

Results: 0-5 record, 396 rush yards and 1 TD (average of 79 rush yards per game and 0.2 rush TDs per game

The last 2 years Fournette has faced 8 teams with a top 50 rush defense:

Results: 1-7 record, 724 rush yards, 3 TDs (average of 90 rush yards per game and 0.37 TDs per game)

Now Fournette wrecked shop and humiliated bad rush defenses.  Against the remaining opponents with rush defenses ranked 67th-126th (opponents average out at a 87 rush defense average)his team went 11-0 and he averaged 188 yards and 2.3 TDs per game.  The Fournette in these games is the one people rave about.  Don't get me wrong it still counts.  Good running against the college football field counts regardless and there are lots of examples of why you don't need a good resume vs elite defenses to prove your worth but I think it is worth discussing.

now let's take a random RB who people don't really care about in this deep draft and keep in mind this is not an endorsment of him.  Wayne Gallman of Clemson.  Now obviously he isn't the focal piece in the O.  Apples and oranges in regards to roles and RBs. Gallman has faced 10 top 20 rush defenses (Clemson has gone 8-2) and he accumulated 743 yards and 8 TDs with an average of 74 rush yards per game and 0.80 TDs per game.

Could Gallman play a bunch of really weak defenses as a featured piece and accumulate big numbers? Probably.

Does that make him comparable to Fournette? No, but Clemson is getting just as much (actually more production) from their RB vs top 20 rush defenses than Fournette is giving LSU.   

So does Carolina want to use a first round pick on a Fournette when likely a lesser pick can give them the same production? Cam is our franchise QB....so we aren't looking for an Adrian Peterson to gameplan everything around.  We don't have a game manager QB. We are looking for a complimentary piece not an offense.

I just don't think the value is there with a RB.  If Fournette was a once in a decade RB...his games vs the best rush defenses wouldn't match that of good roleplaying RBs about to enter with him IMO.  

So in conclusion, Fournette is by far the best runner in the draft. I am not endorsing Gallman as the pick. We need live young legs.  But, I think given how we don't want to be a 2 yard and a cloud of dust offense....we can get better value later.  Just like at Clemson, they get the same rush production against top rush defenses out of a lesser RB (yet more diverse RB if you were to open it up and talk about pass catching ability)

There is no other player that would have bigger impact on this team than, Fournette maybe Myles Garrett.

[electro's horse]

1 minute ago, sanjay_rajput said:

There is no other player that would have bigger impact on this team than, Fournette maybe Myles Garrett.

Cam Robinson solves a lot of problems dude. 

Garrett is going to fall out of the first just like that last EDGE player from TAMU who couldn't bench 225

[Nails]

3 minutes ago, panther4life said:

It seems to me any argument against Fournette is done by those who wouldn't take any RB at 8 in any year. More of an indictment on how they value the position than the player.

 

That and Barnett's consistency and upside at only 20 are why Barnett is 1a to my Fournette 1b.  Nothing against the safeties other than I prefer DE by a mile as well.

[beastson]

 

1 minute ago, Davidson Deac II said:

There are two things that concerns me about Fournette.  One, is he really that good, or does LSU just out talent the teams they play against.  The other guy on his team (Guice I think) averages more ypc than Fournette does.  In fact, I believe all the LSU running backs average five or more a carry.  Are they really that good, or is he another Mcfadden or Richardson?

 

Also do we really want a guy who thought he didn't owe his team anything and didn't play in the Sun bowl?  Does that mean he will think that he doesn't owe the NFL team he signs anything in a couple of years?  

 

 

To be fair, he would have came out after last season but the NFL stupid agreement forces you to be atleast a junior. He ended up getting hurt of course in that year (this season) and been hurt all season long. He's definitely focusing on the combine

And Guice was ranked all throughout the top 10 in RB's out of high school. I believe Jeremy Hill was the last LSU starting RB to get drafted and he's doing ok in Cincy and Fournette is definitely better than he was there

[CRA]

15 minutes ago, bigdog10 said:

Came here to post this. It's hard to fault Fournette for those games against the top defenses. He was legitimately lsu's only offensive threat. The defenses game plan was to remove him from the game and they were able to do that due to LSU having no threat of a passing game. 

Im undecided on if I want fournette or not, but judging him on those games is not a reason why. 

But that kinda plays into people building him into a once in a decade RB.....

because we have seen those guys literally line up with an entire team focused on them....and somehow wreck shop in the pros and college. 

Adrian Peterson could just run on anyone with everyone knowing it was coming.  He could do it in college and the pros vs the good or bad. Fournette isn't that.   He isn't a Sanders or Peterson....and there are s boatload of RBs in the next tier of awesome IMO as they are more team oriented in there success 

[top dawg]

That's basically what all running backs do. They feast on who they're supposed to feast on, and keep good defenses honest. I have no problem with that.

I wonder how All Day compares within the context of the OP. Cherry picking is sometimes a slippery slope. In general, Fournette compares to Peterson favorably.

https://medium.com/@jlray15/leonard-fournettes-nfl-comparison-is-obvious-5745504a9cc4#.dclzo6du0

[electro's horse]

Just now, CRA said:

Adrian Peterson could just run on anyone with everyone knowing it was coming.  He could do it in college and the pros vs the good or bad. Fournette isn't that.   

Adrian Peterson was playing in the big 12. 

[Davidson Deac II]

2 minutes ago, beastson said:

 

To be fair, he would have came out after last season but the NFL stupid agreement forces you to be atleast a junior. He ended up getting hurt of course in that year (this season) and been hurt all season long. He's definitely focusing on the combine

And Guice was ranked all throughout the top 10 in RB's out of high school. I believe Jeremy Hill was the last LSU starting RB to get drafted and he's doing ok in Cincy and Fournette is definitely better than he was there

Don't get me wrong, if we pick him I hope he turns out to be a great player for us.  But I just hear it so often that player x is going to be the next great one, and then they flop.  Of course, that is true for any position, not just running back.  

[ncsportsfan1234]

35 minutes ago, Saca312 said:

Bottom rung? He broke records his rookie year. He's been breaking records since then, and he climaxed in 2015.

This year is his first true down year. Here, let me show you how good he's been prior to 2015.

 

Aside from 2015 he's never been above 20th in passing TDs yards or completion % rushing records for a quarterback aren't that impressive...

He's also never been able to pass for 4000 yards again since his rookie year.

[CRA]

1 minute ago, electro's horse said:

Adrian Peterson was playing in the big 12. 

I realize Fournette plays for the knee shaking and all mightily SEC....but he has spent his college career running against a lot of trash run defenses and not tons of great ones. 

Peterson IMO has always lined up college and pros....and it didn't matter how good you were.  Yeah a game here or there bottled up but he would thump the toughest with decent opportunity.  

I think Fournette had chances to prove if he was once in a generation type talent...

[CRA]

12 minutes ago, ncsportsfan1234 said:

Aside from 2015 he's never been above 20th in passing TDs yards or completion % rushing records for a quarterback aren't that impressive...

He's also never been able to pass for 4000 yards again since his rookie year.

Can't compare Cam the way you do other QBs.  Just doesn't work. Sells him short by design of the comparison. 

Cam's best running isn't found in the records people talk about (the historic ones you dismiss)..it is the crazy 3rd down pick ups and first down conversations. It is basically a variation of short pass game totally taken out of discussion because it has never existed in the NFL before. 

Cam simply isn't comparable to date.   People want to use standard QB definition on him that favors the pack and discredits what no one else in history has done.

He definately is more football player than traditional QB....which is why the comparison is just pointless.  

[ncsportsfan1234]

3 minutes ago, CRA said:

Can't compare Cam the way you do other QBs.  Just doesn't work. Sells him short by design of the comparison. 

Cam's best running isn't found in the records people talk about (the historic ones you dismiss)..it is the crazy 3rd down pick ups and first down conversations. It is basically a variation of short pass game totally taken out of discussion because it has never existed in the NFL before. 

Cam simply isn't comparable to date.   People want to use standard QB definition on him that favors the pack and discredits what no one else on history has done 

Those runs that made him a viable qb were none existent this season..... he needs a RB who can be the focal point.

[CRA]

7 minutes ago, ncsportsfan1234 said:

Those runs that made him a viable qb were none existent this season..... he needs a RB who can be the focal point.

So because this year injury and officiating took somethings away for him....his career of doing it is irrelevant? 

I agree he needs to not be he focal point of our rush attack....which he has been starting in 2011 to date . We have used him to literally set up everything (which isn't a burden other QBs face)

my stance remains people greatly over rate the slop around Cam.  It is bad overall.  Which is why I would rather get a good RB later and use the first round pick on a starter at another spot.  RB is the easiest spot to find a starter late

it really isn't about Fournette....it is about us and value 

[ncsportsfan1234]

2 minutes ago, CRA said:

So because this year injury and officiating took somethings away for him....his career of doing it is irrelevant? 

I agree he needs to not be he focal point of our rush attack....which he has been starting in 2011 to date . We have used him to literally set up everything (which isn't a burden other QBs face)

I'm saying he needs to improve his mechanics and footwork and yes I'm saying being such a big piece of our ground attack has kept him from developing that.... he's lost a step.... it's time to have a legitimate nfl running game not based on trickery.... if we want cam to actually develope as a passer we need to take the running burden off him.