Would you trade any of our starters for a 3rd round pick?

[CPantherKing]

11 hours ago, top dawg said:

Considering the strides that both Bradberry AND Worley made through the course of the season---and I emphasize the latter part of the season, and considering the nature and historical success or lack thereof the further that you get away from 1st and 2nd rounders, it is a bit presumptuous of you to say that we could get "definite" upgrades for either one of them. 

Other Huddlers may not, but I expect more of you than that, CPK.

My opinion is Bradberry will make a solid CB and a great back up once he has 3 seasons under his belt. Do I believe he will ever be a shut down CB? No. Do I believe he will ever be a turnover machine like most Tillman or Norman? No. That has been my stance on him from the start and it has not changed. I saw more from Bene in his rookie season turning around the 2014 season that made him look like he had potential compared to the potential Bradberry demonstrated in 2016.

I know most fans want to believe every Panthers players is the best at their position, but Bradberry is clearly one of the worst starting CBs in the NFL. Now, that is not saying he is a bust.

Consider that Bradberry was picked 62nd in the 2015 draft, and many thought that was too high for him then. I believe those people were correct and the Panthers would not get close to the 62nd pick in return for Bradberry. Bradberry was a 4th/5th round talent chosen at the bottom of the 2nd round. Now, the 3rd round begins with the 65th pick. People can act like Bradberry was a 1st or top 2nd round pick, but he was 2 picks away from the 3rd round and everyone knows he was a reach at that spot.

I would argue that Bradberry is not worth a 1st round pick value.

Next, I would argue that Bradberry is not a top 2nd round value.

It is debatable if Bradberry is still worth a low 2nd round value.

That leaves Bradberry as no greater than a 3rd round value. I would argue his 1 year of experience elevates him from his 4th/5th round value in 2016 to a late 3rd/4th round value in 2017.

Now, look at the deep pool of DB talent coming out in the 2017 draft. It would be hard to argue that Bradberry could break in to the top 100 players of the 2017 draft. 

I would take Dwayne Thomas of LSU, Des Lawrence of UNC, and Chidobe Awuzie of Colorado and expect them to beat out Bradberry in training camp/preseason. I believe Tony Brown of Alabama will be a better CB than Bradberry and would take him in the mid rounds if he declared. The DBs are very deep with talent in 2017.

[gorillamilitia13]

Tolbert, Boston, Remmers. Improve these 3 spots and get another backup TE that can block and we'll be golden next year. Assuming we keep KK and Addison.

And holy crap I did not know Remmers was going to be a free agent this year, that is the best news ever.

[SmokinwithWilly]

43 minutes ago, CPantherKing said:

My opinion is Bradberry will make a solid CB and a great back up once he has 3 seasons under his belt. Do I believe he will ever be a shut down CB? No. Do I believe he will ever be a turnover machine like most Tillman or Norman? No. That has been my stance on him from the start and it has not changed. I saw more from Bene in his rookie season turning around the 2014 season that made him look like he had potential compared to the potential Bradberry demonstrated in 2016.

I know most fans want to believe every Panthers players is the best at their position, but Bradberry is clearly one of the worst starting CBs in the NFL. Now, that is not saying he is a bust.

Consider that Bradberry was picked 62nd in the 2015 draft, and many thought that was too high for him then. I believe those people were correct and the Panthers would not get close to the 62nd pick in return for Bradberry. Bradberry was a 4th/5th round talent chosen at the bottom of the 2nd round. Now, the 3rd round begins with the 65th pick. People can act like Bradberry was a 1st or top 2nd round pick, but he was 2 picks away from the 3rd round and everyone knows he was a reach at that spot.

I would argue that Bradberry is not worth a 1st round pick value.

Next, I would argue that Bradberry is not a top 2nd round value.

It is debatable if Bradberry is still worth a low 2nd round value.

That leaves Bradberry as no greater than a 3rd round value. I would argue his 1 year of experience elevates him from his 4th/5th round value in 2016 to a late 3rd/4th round value in 2017.

Now, look at the deep pool of DB talent coming out in the 2017 draft. It would be hard to argue that Bradberry could break in to the top 100 players of the 2017 draft. 

I would take Dwayne Thomas of LSU, Des Lawrence of UNC, and Chidobe Awuzie of Colorado and expect them to beat out Bradberry in training camp/preseason. I believe Tony Brown of Alabama will be a better CB than Bradberry and would take him in the mid rounds if he declared. The DBs are very deep with talent in 2017.

That whole breakdown would be great if you knew exactly what every other GM in the NFL was going to do at the draft. But you don't and that's the problem with that whole argument of taking players where they have been ranked. You take guys where you think you have to in order to get them. There are no guarantees in the draft including all of those DBs you mentioned. 

[CPantherKing]

5 minutes ago, SmokinwithWilly said:

That whole breakdown would be great if you knew exactly what every other GM in the NFL was going to do at the draft. But you don't and that's the problem with that whole argument of taking players where they have been ranked. You take guys where you think you have to in order to get them. There are no guarantees in the draft including all of those DBs you mentioned. 

At least 2 of those CBs will be available in the 3rd round. They are not all going in the first 60 picks. That I can assure you. They are not even the 10 best CBs in the draft.

GMs and the NFL draft is much more predictable than you may believe from a macro scale. You can list the top 100 players you like that would improve/impact the team, and there is a good chance the bottom of that list will still be available in the 7th round. Then you make a list of players raw value league wide and leverage that for more of your top 100 players.

The Panthers may have liked Ealy, Shaq, Butler, Bradberry, Worley, Bene, Funchess, and Williams, but to jump up in the draft to pick them higher than their believed league value because the GM believes his list of players outweighs the value of the league will always cost the team. The Panthers would have been fine with Aaron Lynch, Kwon Alexander, Maleik Collins, Tavon Young, Anthony Brown, EJ Gaines, and Stefon Diggs.

If a GM moves up to take a player because they FEAR the team will lose out on a player they like, then that GM better believe the player is an instant impact and a sure bet. The GM must also stake his and the team's reputation on trading up for a player, and they must be correct. These are the riskiest moves a GM can make with the future of a franchise and it's economic capital.

[LinvilleGorge]

13 hours ago, top dawg said:

Considering the strides that both Bradberry AND Worley made through the course of the season---and I emphasize the latter part of the season, and considering the nature and historical success or lack thereof the further that you get away from 1st and 2nd rounders, it is a bit presumptuous of you to say that we could get "definite" upgrades for either one of them. 

Other Huddlers may not, but I expect more of you than that, CPK.

2nd rounders? You mean to tell me that teams routinely find success with 2nd round picks?

Wow. Over the years, by and large the Panthers could've drafted Huddlers in the 2nd round and gotten about the same production out of those picks.

I really hope Bradberry is the reversal of that nasty trend.

[top dawg]

3 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

2nd rounders? You mean to tell me that teams routinely find success with 2nd round picks?

Wow. Over the years, by and large the Panthers could've drafted Huddlers in the 2nd round and gotten about the same production out of those picks.

I really hope Bradberry is the reversal of that nasty trend.

You really can't even gauge the success rate of a draft with any quantification until several years out, so I don't know if I'd say that it's a trend for second rounders to "bust" (if there is such a thing), but the fact is that the success rate of second rounders is not worlds apart from the first round if you recognize Matt McGuire's study (which I have referenced before). Don't get me wrong, it's all speculative by its very nature, but some teams draft better than others, and at this point there is reason to believe that Gettleman knows what he's doing and should subsequently have better success.

http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftology408_2.php

"Even if teams were never stupid in the second round, the hit rate is still a relative flip of the coin simply because of the talent level of the prospect we are dealing with. The top 32 picks are now off the board and teams are simply choosing from a lower tier of talent, and it is always harder to get impact players at an extremely high rate at that point. 

This said, historically the second-round hit rate is less than 10 percent different from the first round over the past 10 years."

 

So, relatively to the first round, inasmuch as someone can draft, yes, it is much better to have a second rounder than someone in the later rounds.

You may find this interesting as well, which is basically telling also.

https://datascopeanalytics.com/blog/the-chance-of-a-bust-in-the-nfl-draft/

 

The further you go out, the higher the probability that you're not going to have any impact at all.

[Jangler]

On 1/13/2017 at 3:46 PM, panther4life said:

You wouldn't trade Stewart for a third?

A third what? Some guy that's sits on the bench  over Stew who does contribute still. 

That's the real problem with the question. Who would trade a 3rd and for anybody on this team. beyond the core, duh.

[JARROD]

Who could we trade for a 3rd round pick?


Sent from my iPhone using CarolinaHuddle

[brandon_87]

Remmers and Funchess for sure,  possibly KB too