Age-performance graph for offense, then defense

[top dawg]

When looking over the thread about Whitworth, I noticed that @thomas96  questioned whether Getty should/would sign him (due to his age basically), so I went to research whether offensive tackles' play really does fall off. I came upon an interesting article by Devin Jordan of socalledfantasyexperts.com.

Now of course as with any theories or even realities based upon stats and sound metrics, there are always exclusions to the rule, if not outright anomalies. This seems particularly true when dealing with the best of the best, and I suppose late bloomers as well. Moreover, there is chronological age, and age based upon heredity and how one's body has been treated, including workload. 

Lastly, some people are just that more talented than others, so their play during their decline may just be better than someone else's play that is on the rise.

The article has position-specific graphs, and I feel it's certainly worth reading if you're interested in this sort of thing, but here is the overall curve at a glance.

http://socalledfantasyexperts.com/aging-curve-nfl-offensive-players-every-single-position

"There are many implications for this work, specifically as it relates to roster construction and the investment in speed dependent players with long-term, expensive contracts. Wide receivers, tight ends, and running backs that enter the league as 22-year-olds are almost past their peak by the time they reach free agency for the first time (first round picks are locked into their rookie deals for four or five years, while all other draft picks are tied to their rookie contracts for four years), while tackles centers, quarterbacks, and guards have yet to play their best football when they are first time free agents.

The general rule for the aging curve for NFL offensive players is that speed dependent players peak earlier than speed independent players, but speed independent players age better than speed dependent players."

 

Now, as I suggested, there are several things to consider when viewing the graph, but as a general reference it may have some merit, especially as it pertains to contracts, team building, and the way that free agency is approached. 

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Edit: Just because I know someone is wondering, I've put in the defensive graph as well, though there seems to be a little of a discrepancy between the metrics of Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus as explained by the author.

"While the aging curve for NFL defensive players changes depending on which metric you look at, because of the more objective and robust methodology, there must be greater validity and attention given to the aging curves that have been generated based off of Pro Football Focus’ player grades. The previous article that I wrote looked at the aging curve for individual offensive players based on approximate value, and this research will eventually be redone to look at the aging curve with player grades used as the value metric. While the data is still somewhat noisy, because of the small sample of players that have publicly available player grades, we can definitively say that, as a generalization, defensive players age earlier than most would expect."

[billionairemonk]

great post, yet again

thanks for the info

[Kakarot]

Yea, real good post. Looks like Centers get a second wind or life once they reach 31-32. After that they fall off a cliff. Something to keep an eye on when it comes to Kalil, since he's 31 now. Definitely time to be eyeing his replacement 

[motocross_cat]

7 minutes ago, Kakarot said:

Yea, real good post. Looks like Centers get a second wind or life once they reach 31-32. After that they fall off a cliff. Something to keep an eye on when it comes to Kalil, since he's 31 now. Definitely time to be eyeing his replacement 

Well using my eye ball test, that grankowsi-----eh how ever you say it guy filled in awsome for being thrown into the fire.  What was he our third center?  Answer might be on the roster for this one.

[KillerKat]

2 minutes ago, motocross_cat said:

Well using my eye ball test, that grankowsi-----eh how ever you say it guy filled in awsome for being thrown into the fire.  What was he our third center?  Answer might be on the roster for this one.

Kalil - Gradkowski - Larsen

[Saca312]

2 minutes ago, motocross_cat said:

Well using my eye ball test, that grankowsi-----eh how ever you say it guy filled in awsome for being thrown into the fire.  What was he our third center?  Answer might be on the roster for this one.

You're talking about Larsen?

Yeah. He's our practice squad center that filled in nicely. I think he was an undrafted in 2014. He's 25.

Wouldn't doubt we're possibly gonna give him looks as our future, and likely depth behind Kalil.

[Kakarot]

Yea, Larsen has looked good and will only get better. Hopefully, he's able to replace Kalil in the future. I expect Kalil to have a pro bowl season this year.

[Kakarot]

10 minutes ago, stbugs said:

I know this is about Whitworth, but anybody thinking about Kawann when they looked at the defensive graph? Seems to say that 2017 and 2018 would still be at peak and 2019 would still be decent (likely since he doesn't have a lot of tread on the tires, like Cox would when he hits 30). If we can't sign him to a 3 year guarantee, overall $$$/years don't matter, then I'd franchise him once (maybe twice) and let him go.

Yea, 3 years is probably the max I'd offer Short. Either that or give him something longer, but structure it in a way where it won't hurt us to cut him after the 3rd year.

[Cuttinedge]

Larsen out performed gradkowski

[top dawg]

1 hour ago, stbugs said:

I know this is about Whitworth, but anybody thinking about Kawann when they looked at the defensive graph? Seems to say that 2017 and 2018 would still be at peak and 2019 would still be decent (likely since he doesn't have a lot of tread on the tires, like Cox would when he hits 30). If we can't sign him to a 3 year guarantee, overall $$$/years don't matter, then I'd franchise him once (maybe twice) and let him go.

This isn't t about Whitworth per se, but everyone. In general OTs fare very well, and it's not even close when looking at DTs.

Perhaps using the franchise tag as a tool to pay someone at positions that tend to fall off a cliff at certain ages is the most shrewd way to go. 

I know that if I were a player, I would seriously talk to the NFLPA about shortening the rookie contracts by a year, and getting rid of that additional year option for first rounders. I would most definitely try and scrap the franchise tag altogether.

In any event, this just makes me think that perhaps Belichick is also super smart to keep churning his roster if a player doesn't want to compromise on contracts, or has just outlived their efficient effectiveness in his system.

[MV%doe]

The strongest years in a males life are 26-32.  Problem with that when talking NFL players, is wear and tear. Most nfler don't realize their body is Thier resume. The faster they figure that out, the longer they'll able to get NFL paychecks. You take a guy that won the gene pool lotto, true football passion, has great eating & sleeping habits, and truly enjoys working out. That guy will still be in the league til his late 30s, even 40 is possible. Believe it or not Tom Brady is a great example of this, Smitty could have played til 40th too.

[RickyManningJr]

Man I am right on the verge of falling off the table.  Life has passed me by.

[motocross_cat]

3 hours ago, Saca312 said:

You're talking about Larsen?

Yeah. He's our practice squad center that filled in nicely. I think he was an undrafted in 2014. He's 25.

Wouldn't doubt we're possibly gonna give him looks as our future, and likely depth behind Kalil.

Yup larsen.  He played reall well.

[Kakarot]

1 hour ago, RickyManningJr said:

Man I am right on the verge of falling off the table.  Life has passed me by.

I'm at the peak right now at 27, but about to fall of the cliff here soon. Gotta good 5 years of ballin left in me, though.