An Analysis of 36 Recent Mock Drafts - Picks 1-8

[KB_fan]

So over in one of the "Should we trade up for Fournette" threads, I mentioned that some of the draft simulators (Fanspeak) don't show Fournette being picked often before #8.  (I imagine their algorithms discount the value of the RB position.)  Today I did 20 mock drafts at Fanspeak with 13 different big boards, and shockingly Fournette was there at #8 100% of the time.

That seemed crazy.... so it pushed me to do something I was wanting to anyway.   I decided to do a comparative analysis of a couple dozen (3 dozen to be exact) mock drafts by various analysts.  I tried to include most reputable analysts and sites:  NFL.com (several analysts);  CBS (several analysts);  Kiper, McShay, Bleacher Report, PFF....

I found many of the links at Walter Football's Mock Database.  http://walterfootball.com/draftdata.php

Others I searched for in google or at the various sites...

Note:  If I'm missing any major analysts or more recent mocks by the analysts listed, send me the links and I'll try and do an update of this analysis next weekend.

Here's a list of all 36 mock drafts I tabulated, for picks 1 - 8.

Bright yellow shading indicates a trade scenario.  Pale yellow is merely to highlight some less common names at various picks....

The names under the column for each pick show the most common players mocked for the given PICK.  Note, for calculating those figures I ignored trades.  So, for instance, In the two scenarios where the Panthers are projected to trade up to #2 to pick Thomas, even though Thomas is being picked to the Panthers, he is calculated as going off the board at #2.  So Thomas goes off the board at #2  21 of 36 times (58% of the scenarios).

Mocks done by humans are obviously different than those done by computer algorithms at draft simulator sites.  Fournette was off the board at #8 61% of the time in these 36 mock drafts, compared to 0% in the 20 fanspeak mock drafts I did earlier....

More analysis & comments to follow below.

[KB_fan]

Here is a summary of all the players mocked to the Panthers in these 36 mock drafts.  Howard & McCaffrey are tied with 7 selections each.  Fournette is next with 5 selections.

[saX man]

I'd personally trade up for Reuben Foster at pick -2 

[The Lobo]

Very good info. I feel like something crazy will happen. Trades and a couple qbs taken before us will shake things up. If that happens we could have a big decision on our hands. Maybe Adams will be there or we trade down.

[KB_fan]

Perhaps of greatest interest to all here....  here is the availability analysis for each of the 28 players shown going off the board in picks 1 - 8.

In the past 3 weeks there seems to have emerged a fairly strong consensus of the 7 players that are likely to be picked before us.  Garrett, Hooker, Thomas, Adams, Lattimore, Allen, Fournette.

If the consensus of these analysts is correct, we have

no chance (barring a trade, of course) of getting Garrett;

a less than 20% chance of getting Hooker, Thomas or Adams.

a less than 25% chance of getting Lattimore.

a 35 - 40% chance of getting Allen or Fournette.

By contrast, things look very positive for us to get Howard, Barnett, McCaffrey.

 

An IMPORTANT note though, is that the mock drafts tend to evolve.  For example, there's been a lot more mocks showing QBs going in the early picks in the past 7 - 10 days compared with earlier in the draft season.  (Note, the 36 drafts are listed in chronological order). So, things could change.  If the QB frenzy heats up, it could cause a player like Fournette, Allen or Lattimore to fall... Stay tuned next Sunday for another update.

 

[KB_fan]

So Huddle, if these mocks are right, the players likely off the board before we pick are:

• Garrett
• Hooker
• Thomas
• Adams
• Lattimore
• Allen
• Fournette

Who would you pick in that case? 

Personally I'd go with Howard or McCaffrey, or possibly trade down so a team can pick a QB.  Barnett would also be on the board, but I'm not convinced he's BPA in this scenario.

I expect though that there WILL be jockeying for at least 1 QB, if not 2 in picks 1 - 7.... so this could well change in our favor.  Stay tuned.

[The Lobo]

1 minute ago, KB_fan said:

So Huddle, if these mocks are right, the players likely off the board before we pick are:

• Garrett
• Hooker
• Thomas
• Adams
• Lattimore
• Allen
• Fournette

Who would you pick in that case? 

Personally I'd go with Howard or McCaffrey, or possibly trade down so a team can pick a QB.  Barnett would also be on the board, but I'm not convinced he's BPA in this scenario.

I expect though that there WILL be jockeying for at least 1 QB, if not 2 in picks 1 - 7.... so this could well change in our favor.  Stay tuned.

In this scenario, I'd do my best to trade down to 12. If they can't trade down, then Mcaffery should be the pick because of what all he can do. If it comes to that, it wouldn't be impossible to trade with the Browns.

[Nails]

9 minutes ago, KB_fan said:

So Huddle, if these mocks are right, the players likely off the board before we pick are:

• Garrett
• Hooker
• Thomas
• Adams
• Lattimore
• Allen
• Fournette

Who would you pick in that case? 

Personally I'd go with Howard or McCaffrey, or possibly trade down so a team can pick a QB.  Barnett would also be on the board, but I'm not convinced he's BPA in this scenario.

I expect though that there WILL be jockeying for at least 1 QB, if not 2 in picks 1 - 7.... so this could well change in our favor.  Stay tuned.

Barnett would be the best PLAYER available, assuming this is still football after all and not the circus.

Good job and amazing effort by the way.

[KB_fan]

8 minutes ago, Nails said:

Barnett would be the best PLAYER available, assuming this is still football after all and not the circus.

Good job and amazing effort by the way.

Perhaps...  I'm not sure I'm qualified to really judge.  But I confess I'm leaning towards offense at #8 which gives the edge in my mind to McCaffrey or Howard.  We need quality offensive weapons.  Our defensive needs are more for depth / youth behind aging vets.  But on Offense we need to change things up.  New dynamic players may help force that evolution Ron keeps talking about...

[KB_fan]

It interested me that even looking at only the top 8 picks in the draft, there were NO identical mocks among the 36 I examined. 

Two mocks came close to being identical.   A mock by Charley Casserly and another by Brinson at CBS were identical for picks 1 - 7:  Garrett; Thomas, Allen, Fournette, Lattimore, Adams, Hooker.  They diverged when it came to our pick at #8, with one mocking Cook to us, the other picked Howard.

[The Huddler]

 

-HuddleGM

[TheSpecialJuan]

33 minutes ago, Nails said:

Barnett would be the best PLAYER available, assuming this is still football after all and not the circus.

Good job and amazing effort by the way.

Good player but his combine testing numbers were slow for a starting DE. Bill Polian mentioned this on NFL Live.

[panther4life]

Excellent work @KB_fan

Interesting breakdown of all these mocks. Another nice time killer to mull over until the draft gets here. Thanks for the info. 

[d-dave]

So @KB_fan, what you're saying is that all the players will be drafted by 8?  Like, no one left? =P

Always great statistical analysis!  It goes to show the sheer effort by the "fan" class to try to figure out what teams will do.  The NFL has created a master class in building a year long hype machine for a roughly 24 week sport.

I can't wait for the curve balls to fly.  The trades, the "weird" picks, and the falls.  Who'se going to wait for three days in NYC?