The Myth of the Ball control offense

[redbuddha]

For weeks I have been trying to find the right words for what I feel is Ron Rivera and Mike Shula’s stance  on time of possession and ball control, and in the back of my mind I remember reading something on the huddle, possibly written by KB, about points per drive.

In the old way of thinking keeping the ball out of the opponents hands was the key to victory. Therefore a run game that burned up lots of clock was a great thing. However given that a team only has so many drives to score points the most valuable stat is points per play (includes defense) or points per drive (offense only). 

It doesn’t matter if you keep your opponent from scoring or possessing the football if you haven’t scored. In a 60 minute game if you march up and down the field for 59:50 but fumble the ball and watch the opposing defense return it for the winning score, you still lose! Yards gained and TOP are rendered  irrelevant.

Focusing the offense on drive efficiency, and the defense on take away efficiency, or even on special teams how many plays has it been since we blocked a kick, how many plays since we scored on special teams will make us a better team because it exposes some glaring holes.

In my years of watching football at all levels coaches that dominated had a consistent system for scoring and keeping you from scoring. When that wasn’t working they always had a special teams play available to change momentum. I know this is a gross oversimplification of years of football strategy. But at the end of the day as a Panthers fan, on a year to year basis, i don’t feel that we are getting consistent performance in any of the three areas, I would love to hear your thoughts.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/givetake

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=2&statisticCategory=SCORING&conference=ALL&role=TM&season=2017&seasonType=REG

[The Huddler]

All i know is when I play madden i score as fast and as often as I can and when I do that, I win almost every time...

 

I would legitimatly and seriously be interested in seeing the correlation between coaches who "protect" their lead against coaches who score as often and as frequent as possible, even with a lead..

 

has that ever bit a team in the ass? When? How often has prevent defense and run ball O resulted in a comeback?

 

 

[The Huddler]

To me pooring it on agressivly  and demoralizing the openent into puting their scrubs in is better than letting the other sideline know we are done kicking their ass and that if they execute they can beat us. Blood in the water.  Im scooba diving, i got out of the water and is on the boat...  ima stab my leg and jump back in to see if i can get out again. 

[Hoenheim]

Its pure conservatism from a defensive minded head coach. He probably figures if we get a 2 or 3 score lead it should  be enough to win the game with a good defense. The problem is even if you do have a good defense , you can't rely on them every game . And this conservative bs makes the offense much more prone to go 3 and out and lose their rythm, which means the defense is on the field longer , becomes gradually more unreliable and more winded as the game goes on, and thats how all these combacks happen against us. All those wins in 2015 probably further entrenched him in his ways, I doubt he'd change this at all unless we had 2 or 3 really bad losing seasons in a row and he was on the hotseat.  It sucks always letting teams back in games and could lead to some critical losses in important games in the future. 

Our defense is good but no where near 2015 good and were not forcing turnovers much at all, dont trust our safteys or Worely.  Allowing alot of points over the last 3 games as well. 

I think its unfortunate Cam landed in a situation where he was paired with an old school defensive head coach. You saw how he shreded it up early in his career , 2013, and 2015. If Cam had an offensive genuis HC like Payton I can only imagine where we'd be right now as  a franchise. Our best player plays the most important position on OFFENSE, has an incredibly strong arm and can fit the ball in tight windows like no other, it should be like basketball where you always want the ball in your best players hands to close games and not just doing dumb ass run up the guts and checkdowns when we get a 2 score lead . 

[Hoenheim]

I think part of it is he was part of and witnessed possibly the greatest defense of all time ('85 Bears)  Im sure that had a huge impact on how he views the game and how he rather put the game in the defenses' hands to close out games . 

[Bartin]

12 minutes ago, Hoenheim said:

I think part of it is he was part of and witnessed possibly the greatest defense of all time ('85 Bears)  Im sure that had a huge impact on how he views the game and how he rather put the game in the defenses' hands to close out games . 

Also the team that beat us in the Super Bowl. Go look at the last 10 or so Super Bowl winners and see how many are more defensive than offensive. Even last year was the number 1 scoring defense beating the highest scoring offense.

The problem is less the mindset and more the ability to run the ball when they know we are going to run the ball. I don’t recall many complaints when we ran an 8 minute drive to close out the 49ers.

[Hoenheim]

Just now, Bartin said:

Also the team that beat us in the Super Bowl. Go look at the last 10 or so Super Bowl winners and see how many are more defensive than offensive. Even last year was the number 1 scoring defense beating the highest scoring offense.

The problem is our defense isn't on that level (look how many points they give up to good QBs)  and probably never has been with the exception of 2015 in pure turnover differential . We've had good defenses for the most part in his tenure,  but no where near the level that would be needed to so lopsidedly rely on them every time you get a 2 or 3 score lead. 

[Dex]

Chip Kelly

[Jangler]

6 hours ago, The Huddler said:

To me pooring it on agressivly  and demoralizing the openent into puting their scrubs in is better than letting the other sideline know we are done kicking their ass and that if they execute they can beat us. Blood in the water.  Im scooba diving, i got out of the water and is on the boat...  ima stab my leg and jump back in to see if i can get out again. 

 

[Jangler]

btw, follow up song...

 

[csx]

I'm for improving our ability to run out the clock more than playing foolish football.

[Castavar]

Ball control only works if you have a GREAT running game and a truly ELITE defense. Like, say we had the Cowboys o-line. THEN it would make sense. But we simply do not. And tbh, it's not even our O-line to blame for that. When the defense already knows Stew is coming up the gut when we are up by 2 scores, it's not hard to stop. You can still play ball control offense and run it, but how about changing the fuggin personnel and formation up a little Shula?

[PanthersBigD]

It's stupidity or arrogance. I think it's stupidity in this case. Believing in your defense is one thing, but believing that your defense can shut out a desperate opponent for almost two quarters is ridiculous. Belichick never stops trying to score. Andy Reid never stops trying to score. Mike McCarthy NEVER STOPS TRYING TO SCORE. 

[thefuzz]

That strategy works just fine, when you don't have a streaky offense...which we do, because of the scheme that we have been running...tide may be turning though.

If our offense can consistently hit those short and intermediate throws, we can win with this style of play, but we must get positive yards on each play.  When we are running Stew up the gut for 2 yard losses, this scheme will backfire.

Once Cam and co. really know this offense inside and out, I think that the conservative stuff will be fine...until then, it's a gamble.