Hurricane Florence

[Ace_Aladdin]

 

[pamlicopanther]

Getting near tropical gusts here near washington.  Still have power but it has been out once.  Storm should be hitting the gulf stream which may cause it to intensify.

[LinvilleGorge]

58 minutes ago, PhillyB said:

I hate it when people say dumb poo like this. The hurricane models are predictive based on constantly changing variables, and variables changed so now they're predicting lesser strength and new trajectories.

Like literally the top meteorologists in the fuging world are collaborating and developing models with real-time updates with knowledge and methods that would leave your head spinning if you tried to comprehend it but jakedel5674 from the internet says they're not good at their jobs. just lol

And yet, they're still not very good at it. It's kind of like our WR situation last year. Just because you happen to be the best we have doesn't mean you're actually good.

[CatTower]

I think what some of are missing in all of this is that they like to overexaggerate the strength of these things so people take it seriously.  It also has some $$$ incentive to make people buy out all the local stores.  I'd imagine if you spoke to a meteorologist off the record, you'd get a more accurate prediction.

[Scrumtrilescent]

Modeling is getting better, no one says it is there yet but its an iterative process.  It's as if machine learning is a real thing.  

 

 

No, I don't do weather models but I do similar scientific modeling so I'm going on a hunch (or Bayesian inference...hahaha...bad joke, tip your waiter) that field is similar to mine when it comes to the process, goals, and pain points.  

[saints4lifeagain]

21 minutes ago, Ace_Aladdin said:

 

This surge is going to be huge. The storm is so massive it's going to move a ton of water.

[mav1234]

Moved to Raleigh just in time for a hurricane... 

Stay safe all.

[Lumps]

For us in Charlotte...I really think people are over reacting. I think people in Charlotte have lived here all their lives, never been through a real natural crises and freak out the sign of a snowflake or rain drop. Of course they don't know how to prepare either...buying eggs and milk instead of can food and water lol.

That's what northern states do because they can set stuff outside during snow storm and it'll be good...it's comical.

[cookinwithgas]

I remember putting stuff from the fridge and freezer outside when losing power in the winter up in Massachusetts, man that was a long time ago!

[PhillyB]

34 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

And yet, they're still not very good at it. It's kind of like our WR situation last year. Just because you happen to be the best we have doesn't mean you're actually good.

They are literally the best in the world at it

[LinvilleGorge]

23 minutes ago, PhillyB said:

They are literally the best in the world at it

I guess my analogy went over your head. My point was that being the best at something doesn't automatically mean that you're actually good at it. There is still a ton of guess work involved in meteorology and the best of the best are still wrong A LOT. Even the best of them admit this.

 

[Jaycat]

33 minutes ago, Lumps said:

For us in Charlotte...I really think people are over reacting. I think people in Charlotte have lived here all their lives, never been through a real natural crises and freak out the sign of a snowflake or rain drop. Of course they don't know how to prepare either...buying eggs and milk instead of can food and water lol.

That's what northern states do because they can set stuff outside during snow storm and it'll be good...it's comical.

Yeah, kinda like people in the north drive better in bad weather. Lol

[Chaos]

32 minutes ago, Lumps said:

For us in Charlotte...I really think people are over reacting. I think people in Charlotte have lived here all their lives, never been through a real natural crises and freak out the sign of a snowflake or rain drop. Of course they don't know how to prepare either...buying eggs and milk instead of can food and water lol.

That's what northern states do because they can set stuff outside during snow storm and it'll be good...it's comical.

Well, I've lived in Charlotte my whole life, now live in Union County just next door, and am surrounded by northern transplants.  They have no fuging clue of what they should be doing, so it's a panic-mongering cluster out here right now.  It's hard to avoid getting caught up in it.  But after seeing the Hugo aftermath, I get that being without power for a week to 10 days sucks but it's a realistic possibility I'm preparing for.

[JakeDel5674]

1 hour ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I guess my analogy went over your head. My point was that being the best at something doesn't automatically mean that you're actually good at it. There is still a ton of guess work involved in meteorology and the best of the best are still wrong A LOT. Even the best of them admit this.

 

This makes the most sense out of any explanation. Instead of being like PhillyB and sucking a meteorologist anus hole. By saying they're the best at their job, even though they're wrong. Only in sports, and weather can you be wrong the majority of the time, and still get people like PhillyB to take up for you. Just LOL.