Rewatching the final sequence

[Mr. Scot]

After Newton gained the first down on 3rd and 1, I felt pretty optimistic that we were gonna score.

Ugh.

Now I'm seeing a lot of arguing over the final sequence, so I decided to go back and review it. 

Here's what I saw:

FIRST DOWN: Quick basic crosser to McCaffrey 

Good play choice, good execution, Panthers call a time out. We're at the 16 with 47 seconds left...plenty of time and the team isn't rushing.  I know Rivera isn't known for good clock management, but we were in a good place here. 

SECOND DOWN: Incomplete to McCaffrey in the end zone 

McCaffrey was the right choice on the play. He was being covered by a safety (Montae Nicholson), had a step on his man and no one else was all that open, but Chris Clark allows heavy pressure on Newton by Preston Smith.  The pressure forces Newton to get rid of the ball before he's fully ready and the throw winds up sailing.

Clark looked slow and off balance coming out of his stance, so much so I rewound it a couple of times to see if he tripped over Van Roten's feet or something.  Saw no evidence that he did.  It was just a poor effort that came at a really bad time. If Clark anchors his block, that play is probably a touchdown. Aside from Clark, the rest of the offensive line actually did all right on this play.  But as the saying goes, it only takes one.

It's bad enough to get beaten.  It's even worse to look really awkward doing it.  If you go back and look at Clark on that play, you'll probably see what I'm talking about.  His body language after coming out of his stance looks less like a football block and more like an awkward sideways dance step. Clark's failure to do much else other than barely stand in Preston Smith's way probably cost us a score there.

THIRD DOWN: Incomplete to Funchess in the end zone

First off, I don't think it's coincidental that they went after the same area as the previous play.  Either Norv Turner, Cam Newton or maybe both (my guess) probably figured that the prior play should have been a score so they wanted to attack the same area again, this time with Funchess rather than McCaffrey.  I agree with that decision. Redskins might have seen it too.  Coverage this play was by Quinton Dunbar rather than the safety Nicholson, but Nicholson was shading in that direction just in case Dunbar needed help.  That's a reasonable choice since Dunbar had been getting picked on all game. 

There's pressure again, this time from all sides.  Newton's pocket is barely bigger than a broom closet, but the pressure wasn't enough that I think Newton needed to rush the throw.  And to be clear, I don't believe he did. His body language didn't look it. Sadly, rushed or not, it was a poorly thrown pass. It ended up landing far enough out of bounds that it would have taken a phenomenal effort by Funchess to haul it in. Regardless of that though, it's the decision, not the pass itself, that is most deserving of scrutiny here.

The announcers - and pretty much everyone here - made note that Greg Olsen was at the first down marker and had a step on D J Swearinger.  I'd have to agree throwing it to Olsen there would have been a better decision. You could also have gone to McCaffrey in the left flat though, and possibly with even greater potential results.  McCaffrey was being covered by Josh Harvey-Clemons, a linebacker. Seriously, a linebacker, and a linebacker that was playing about five or six yards off at that.  I'll take that matchup ten times out of ten and bet on McCaffrey to at the very least get the first down, and probably score.  Heck, even Jarius Wright was in a good spot on the right side inside the five.  With a nice sideline throw, that's also at least a first down and maybe even a touchdown.

But because of what I noted above, I think it was already decided that pass was headed for the end zone no matter who else was open (for the record, Funchess wasn't) before the ball was even snapped.  And while I agree with the decision to attack where the defense is looking vulnerable, you still have to make the right decision.  Even if you know you have a favorable matchup, you have to walk the steps.  Newton didn't, and probably heard about it from Olsen shortly thereafter.

FOURTH DOWN: Incomplete to Jarius Wright

This one hurt.  I felt reasonably sure that even if we didn't score on this play, we'd at least get the first and have a new set of downs with thirty some seconds left. 

Alas, it was not to be. 

Wright seemed to be trying to lobby the officials for an illegal contact or a defensive holding call, but he didn't get the call.  I'm not sure it matters.  This ball didn't look like it was all that well thrown anyway.  While there was heavy pressure from all sides, with Preston Smith abusing Chris Clark with a speed rush again, Newton isn't falling back and he didn't throw off his back foot.  The ball just goes too high and too far. You could make an argument that even though he got set and made the throw, Newton did have pressure in his face. And if Wright's complaint was correct (I didn't see it, but it's possible) then who knows?

So overall result: One good play, one pressure, one good idea ruined by a poor choice and one possible bad pass / possible missed penalty.

Whose fault is it?  Everybody's. If any one of several sequences goes differently before this point, we might not have been in this spot. 

Teams win. Teams lose.

Speaking of which, let's not discount the Redskins defense here.  Sometimes you can do everything right but the other team just does what they do a little better. Ironically enough, the flow of this game followed a similar path to a lot of our games in the most recent Super Bowl season.  The Redskins went up big early then let us back in the game and needed to pull a last minute win out of their ass.  Goodness knows we did that plenty back in 2015. Still, as infuriating as that often was, it sure felt a lot better being on the other side of it.

I know a lot of people will blame Newton, and it'd be insane to think he didn't play a role.  Even so, there's plenty of blame to go around.  And let's be fair, even great quarterbacks have bad sequences.  I remember watching Donovan McNabb have a horrible four down sequence to close out a playoff loss some years back.  There's also Tom Brady's horrible series against the Eagles late in the Super Bowl.  It happens.  All you can do is pick up and move on to next week.

My take.  Make of it what you will (a hat...a broach...a pterodactyl...etc)

[Cary Kollins]

Game was lost when Rivera punted on 4th and inches from the 50.

[TheSpecialJuan]

good stuff 

[Fright]

The bad sequences seem to be far too often with Cam tho. That’s what happens when your QB is jacked like a RB, through. Always inconsistent with accuracy.

[PantherNation123]

I think another note here, is the option of running the ball on 2nd or 3rd and 5.  I like our odds of picking up a good gain, and with two timeouts, it really seems like a no-brainer

[BIGH2001]

Was at the game.  The third down play was patheric.  Not targeting mccaffrey or Olson on third or fourth down was a colossal mistake.

[Mr. Scot]

7 minutes ago, Fright said:

The bad sequences seem to be far too often with Cam tho. That’s what happens when your QB is jacked like a RB, through. Always inconsistent with accuracy.

Can't put that whole sequence on Newton though, especially not the second down play.  Chris Clark owes him an apology for that one.

But ya know, what's really gonna bake your noodle later on is...would Matt Kalil have done a better job?

 

[Fright]

Just now, Mr. Scot said:

Can't put that whole sequence on Newton though, especially not the second down play.  Chris Clark owes him an apology for that one.

But ya know, what's really gonna bake your noodle later on is...would Matt Kalil have done a better job on that play?

 

Oh lord, don’t make me choke.

[panther4life]

2nd and 5,  Torrey Smith was open on right sideline for at least a 3-4 gain plus room to run for more. 

[mc52beast]

3 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

Can't put that whole sequence on Newton though, especially not the second down play.  Chris Clark owes him an apology for that one.

But ya know, what's really gonna bake your noodle later on is...would Matt Kalil have done a better job on that play?

 

If Kalil is there Newton doesn’t even get the ball off

[JARROD]

Well,... had we not ran 8 times in a row on our first drive, gone for it,..passed on a few first downs-- gotten more aggressive at the end of the 1st half,...

The end may have been kneeling.

[JARROD]

2 minutes ago, panther4life said:

2nd and 5,  Torrey Smith was open on right sideline for at least a 3-4 gain plus room to run for more. 

Torrey Smith showed up to the ball game,.. owned a series to himself,.. was open for a 1st down and we ignored him,.. in weeks past that would have been acceptable-- but today-- not.

[t96]

27 minutes ago, Cary Kollins said:

Game was lost when Rivera punted on 4th and inches from the 50.

Yep we had to go for that. And I think it was Moore who couldn't down it in the 5 and it was a touchback... bad bad play.

[Jangler]

Had a bad feeling all week, then the first quarter happened.