Drafting 6-8: A Historic Look at Prospects & What 2020 Holds

[davos]

Saints need to play for a buy so no doubt we're losing putting us at 5-11.

As mentioned elsewhere, we sit at #8.  Can't leap the Giants or Miami if they win but can leap either the Jaguars or Chargers.

The Jags could easily beat the Colts.  The Chiefs-Chargers game is pointless unless the Chiefs really think the Dolphins can beat NE, so both could happen.

So we are firmly locked at pick 6, 7 or 8.

Let's look at the past few drafts...

2018

6. Quenton Nelson OG Colts     7. Josh Allen QB Bills     8. Roquan Smith LB Bears

2017

6. Jamal Adams S Jets   7. Mike Williams WR Chargers    8. Christian McCaffrey RB Panthers!!

2016

6. Ronnie Stanley OT Ravens   7. DeForest Buckner DT/E 49ers     8. Jack Conklin OT Titans

Notables from years past:

2015: Leonard Williams, Vic Beasley

2014: Mike Evans

So what I take is that this has a huge HIT rate.  The first real bust I see is Kevin white in 2015. 

 

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Now onto the 2020 draft...

Big Board (Just pulling from multiple sites for the clear top tier):

1. Joe Burrow QB LSU (Gone to Cinci)

2. Chase Young DE Ohio State (Top talent in draft, Gone)

3. Andrew Thomas LT Georgia (Gone)

4. Derrick Brown DT Auburn

5. Tua Tagovailoa QB Alabama

6. Jerry Jeudy WR Alabama

7. Jeffrey Okudah CB Ohio State 

8. Justin Herbert QB Oregon

9. AJ Epenesa DE Iowa

10. Tristan Wirfs LT Iowa

11. Jedrick Wills LT Alabama

12. CeeDee Lamb WR Oklahoma

 

Now we need to accept we are in well range of Herbet & Tua.  That's just the way it is and discussion will be rampant.  Depending on how Hurts looks tonight, he could be catapulted similar to others of the past.  I have my eye on him later on but who seems to jump out as the biggest impact talent in this crop? 

For me: I really like this AJ Epenesa kid.  He's a multi-scheme DL talent that can anchor a 3-4 line at DE.  He's best as a pure 5-Tech in a 3-4 so that may make a ton of sense here.  If Derrick Brown is gone for the NT position, this spot is a huge need.  That JJ Watt sized guy on our line is needed so badly and this kid is a monster but athletic as hell.  Burns may have the potential to beef out but I'd rather keep him athletic at the EDGE.  We need a DE desperately and this kid seems to fit what I think is our biggest defensive weakness.  We need an all-around type talent with huge upside.  We're in position to get a high floor, high ceiling type.  If there's not a NT to anchor the center of the D, then this is where you look IMO.  

Quick breakdown of Epenesa:

6'6' 280

2019: 49 total tackles, 11.5 sacks, 4 FF, 14 TFL

And he totally came in clutch for the bowl game, named MVP, and has really been on a tear since late October:

https://www.hawkcentral.com/story/sports/college/iowa/football/2019/12/28/holiday-bowl-analysis-aj-epenesa-turns-tide-iowa-football/2757444001/

 

[Mr. Scot]

Boy, would I love to have had Quinton Nelson.

[davos]

2 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

Boy, would I love to have had Quinton Nelson.

2 penalties all season, 0 sacks allowed from 986 snaps.  Kid was insane this season.  Big reason why Mack got going and Brissett had time to look good. 

[45catfan]

This also shows offensive linemen are the safest route, albeit not the most sexy.  We need linemen, screw the flashy, diva skill positions.

[LinvilleGorge]

I'm 100% onboard with Thomas, Wirfs, or Brown. Honestly, not sure who I'd pick if more than one was on the board. I want to see Epenesa's combine. Relentless motor but I just don't see a lot of explosiveness there. He would likely make a really good fit as a 3-4 DE though if we go that route.

[davos]

6 minutes ago, 45catfan said:

This also shows offensive linemen are the safest route, albeit not the most sexy.  We need linemen, screw the flashy, diva skill positions.

Yep, that was part of what came out of the look back.  The biggest historical busts are skill positions this high.  Though OT has been pretty hit or miss in the top of the draft for some time now when teams select project-type prospects that hit all the measurables.  There's a handful of sure-fire talent here.  I would hate to trade down unless is just a few spots and we get other top picks. 

There's clearly a NT, DE, and OT in this crop to be cemented on our line long term.   

[LinvilleGorge]

Not feeling a WR. With our QB uncertainty and trash OL, I just don't think adding a top 10 WR would be a good investment. At least not in the short-term anyway.

[TheSpecialJuan]

Nice work there 

[davos]

1 minute ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Not feeling a WR. With our QB uncertainty and trash OL, I just don't think adding a top 10 WR would be a good investment. At least not in the short-term anyway.

I agree.  Do think we should look at a WR in this draft but maybe not this high.  Jeudy is going to be a star though and pairing him with Moore would be mouth watering but we need a line and consistent guy behind center throwing it.  I'm more on the 2021 Justyn Ross train once things are fixed up a bit more.

[LinvilleGorge]

3 minutes ago, davos said:

I agree.  Do think we should look at a WR in this draft but maybe not this high.  Jeudy is going to be a star though and pairing him with Moore would be mouth watering but we need a line and consistent guy behind center throwing it.  I'm more on the 2021 Justyn Ross train once things are fixed up a bit more.

Yeah, a mid-round possession/red zone type WR would make sense.

It seems like this organization has been prone to knee-jerk type overreactions in recent years. We needed size at WR and went overboard with the KB/Funchess twin towers experiment. Then we needed speed at WR, so we went with Moore and Samuel but now we lack size at WR. We couldn't rush the passer last year, so we got rid of all our beef at DE and went pure speed and now we can rush the passer but we can't stop the run to save our life.

[davos]

10 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Yeah, a mid-round possession/red zone type WR would make sense.

It seems like this organization has been prone to knee-jerk type overreactions in recent years. We needed size at WR and went overboard with the KB/Funchess twin towers experiment. Then we needed speed at WR, so we went with Moore and Samuel but now we lack size at WR. We couldn't rush the passer last year, so we got rid of all our beef at DE and went pure speed and now we can rush the passer but we can't stop the run to save our life.

That's an interesting point. Don't forget after the SB run, it was presumed all we needed was a better secondary and a LT.  We went out and got 3 CBs after the lovely Vernon Butler pick one of which was a trade up.  Bradberry, Worley, & Sanchez. 

Historically reactionary.  Even the LaFell, Edwards, Gettis draft.  2010 was the worst thing ever in retrospect.  Yuck. 

Edit add: I like the idea of a pure flanker that is ~6'2+ 190 with some speed.  A guy that can outsize CBs but not a pure possession.  There's a handful of talent like that in this draft.

[Mr. Scot]

With so many schools running wonky systems these days, getting a pro-ready offensive tackle (or OL in general) is tougher than it's ever been.

Used to be you could just about guarantee getting quality OL from certain schools but not so much anymore.

[LinvilleGorge]

2 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

With so many schools running wonky systems these days, getting a pro-ready offensive tackle (or OL in general) is tougher than it's ever been.

Used to be you could just about guarantee getting quality OL from certain schools but not so much anymore.

Same thing with WRs. Seems like most WRs coming out of college only run two or three routes.

[top dawg]

10 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Yeah, a mid-round possession/red zone type WR would make sense.

It seems like this organization has been prone to knee-jerk type overreactions in recent years. We needed size at WR and went overboard with the KB/Funchess twin towers experiment. Then we needed speed at WR, so we went with Moore and Samuel but now we lack size at WR. We couldn't rush the passer last year, so we got rid of all our beef at DE and went pure speed and now we can rush the passer but we can't stop the run to save our life.

The scheme change caused havoc with our run defense, and maybe more importantly our two Pro-Bowl DTs got injured.