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Sam Howell, UNC pro day Monday

MHS831

By MHS831,
in 2015 NFL Draft

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MHS831 Grand Master

MHS831

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38 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

Honestly the more I think about it, the more I’d like a trade down and draft Howell. He has proven he can be great with average OL play and some weapons like he did in 2020 and was ranked as a top pick before the season. Even with his OL collapsing and weapons going pro he did put up solid numbers and kept UNC somewhat competitive. You also get a young local talent at QB to get the fans excited plus whatever you can add from the trade down. One could argue Howell is as good as any other QB in this class. 

We all want to overpay for a player after his best--as if a great year is an indication of the future.  Howell had a great year in 2020 and he suffered in 2021.  His stock is DOWN, but what is the difference between Howell and Pickett?  In 2020, nobody knew who Pickett was--Howell was the lock first round draft pick.  If Howell had a bad year because he was asked to do so much more (running, playing from behind, etc) how would he do with a great OL and Moore and Anderson and CMC and Marshall (who will be good in 2022)?

If you asked me if I would rather have Mac Jones over Howell, I would disagree.  Would I rather have Willis?  Long term--probably, but Howell has 2 things that I really love that stand out--he is smart and he is cool under pressure.  He does not get rattled.  The NFL has more close games than college, and a leader who is cool in the huddle is a very calming reassuring presence.  If I can trade back, get a solid G or T and get Howell, I think I would.  And if Howell  busts, you still have the G/T.  Howell will be a great backup, at worst.

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ForJimmy Grand Master

ForJimmy

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21 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

We all want to overpay for a player after his best--as if a great year is an indication of the future.  Howell had a great year in 2020 and he suffered in 2021.  His stock is DOWN, but what is the difference between Howell and Pickett?  In 2020, nobody knew who Pickett was--Howell was the lock first round draft pick.  If Howell had a bad year because he was asked to do so much more (running, playing from behind, etc) how would he do with a great OL and Moore and Anderson and CMC and Marshall (who will be good in 2022)?

If you asked me if I would rather have Mac Jones over Howell, I would disagree.  Would I rather have Willis?  Long term--probably, but Howell has 2 things that I really love that stand out--he is smart and he is cool under pressure.  He does not get rattled.  The NFL has more close games than college, and a leader who is cool in the huddle is a very calming reassuring presence.  If I can trade back, get a solid G or T and get Howell, I think I would.  And if Howell  busts, you still have the G/T.  Howell will be a great backup, at worst.

If you look at his 21 season it’s not even bad really. It’s just down compared to HIS previous year and it’s not hard to see why after watching some tape. Throws one of the best deep balls in the class and is pretty accurate with the ball. He is willing to go to battle for his team and seems to be a gym rat. I like how he was most excited to show scouts how he has been working on his footwork at his Pro Day. Little things like that will go a long way in the NFL. Taking OL aside, if our options are Willis/Pickett at 6 or Howell later plus another 1st/2nd &3rd/whatever we acquire in the trade down it’s a no brainer to me. I’ve heard some scouts down on his throwing motion, but that can be tweaked/adjusted by NFL coaches and staff. If they are saying his is Baker minus the personality issues plus faster on his feet then I’ll take that all day. 

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Basbear Grand Master

Basbear

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1 hour ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Howell being "down" is baffling. The NFL is really fuging up this evaluation if someone doesn't take him in the 1st.

But, that's why there are steals and busts every single year. They do the best they can, but the NFL fugs up a lot of draft evals.

4th round is looking ______ each passing day....

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MHS831 Grand Master

MHS831

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I think it is a lot easier to guess where a QB will be drafted than it is to predict which will be successful by year 3 or not.

I think the Joe Montanas, Russell Wilsons, Tom Bradys, etc. (not drafted until round 3 or later) are out there, and I think this draft will produce some good QB talent.  I literally see the top 5 as being about equal in terms of their likelihood to be a successful pro---I am not a good evaluator of QB talent, so maybe its me.  But I read somewhere that the #1 overall QB picked has something like a 60% chance of success but a QB picked 2-5 of round 1 has a 25% chance of success----later round 1?  25% chance of success.  (sorry, I would provide the link if I could remember where I saw it---I read it about 3 times to make sure I interpreted it correctly).

So why reach? 

To me, the question is not,
Pickett > Howell?

It is Pickett> Howell + an olineman.?

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ForJimmy Grand Master

ForJimmy

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23 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

I think it is a lot easier to guess where a QB will be drafted than it is to predict which will be successful by year 3 or not.

I think the Joe Montanas, Russell Wilsons, Tom Bradys, etc. (not drafted until round 3 or later) are out there, and I think this draft will produce some good QB talent.  I literally see the top 5 as being about equal in terms of their likelihood to be a successful pro---I am not a good evaluator of QB talent, so maybe its me.  But I read somewhere that the #1 overall QB picked has something like a 60% chance of success but a QB picked 2-5 of round 1 has a 25% chance of success----later round 1?  25% chance of success.  (sorry, I would provide the link if I could remember where I saw it---I read it about 3 times to make sure I interpreted it correctly).

So why reach? 

To me, the question is not,
Pickett > Howell?

It is Pickett> Howell + an olineman.?

Pickett is perhaps the “safest” and needs the least amount of development. That might make the most sense because we aren’t the best at developing. However Howell has a higher ceiling and (in theory) can be had later in the draft. That makes the risk easier to take and puts him on a cheaper contract. Throw in the extra draft pick or two and I’m rolling with Howell all day! 

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ForJimmy Grand Master

ForJimmy

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2 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Howell being "down" is baffling. The NFL is really fuging up this evaluation if someone doesn't take him in the 1st.

But, that's why there are steals and busts every single year. They do the best they can, but the NFL fugs up a lot of draft evals.

Makes you wonder if a team like the Saints figured this out and that’s why that made that trade. That can potentially grab their top QB and a LT in the first now. Plus they will probably get a first next year from the Cowboys for Sean Peyton. 

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Basbear Grand Master

Basbear

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On 4/10/2022 at 9:05 AM, MHS831 said:

True or false:

Howell will be drafted before Ridder.

Howell will be drafted by the Lions at 32.

 

False.

Ridder is red hot right now, talk of him being the 2nd QB taken. Feels like he is going to in the 1st now. So that would make 4 in the first. Few teams are saying he is the best interviewer among QBs. 

 

Howell is falling hard. Seems i was right about him being the 7th best QB, in fact that maybe too high. 

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mrcompletely11 Grand Master

mrcompletely11

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Just now, unicar15 said:

The knock on Howell (from Nystrom) is essentially that he ran an extremely simple system and when he didn’t get the look he wanted he didn’t know what to do. 

The book on him is that he holds the ball way too long and takes too many sacks.  So Nystrom might be on to something here

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