Realistic Expectations for 4th-7th Rounders

[kungfoodude]

8 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

It's especially perplexing because of how good he looked in camp and preseason. Honestly, he looked like possibly the best rookie WR in the league in preseason. Then... basically he just disappeared.

If he doesn't make any impact this season, he will be one of the bigger busts we have had in recent memory. His wAV/GM is already pretty similar to Dwayne Jarrett. 

Edited May 29, 2022 by kungfoodude

[LinvilleGorge]

1 minute ago, kungfoodude said:

If he doesn't make any impact this season, he will be one of the bigger busts we have had in recent memory. His wAV/GM is already pretty similar to Dwayne Jarrett. 

Ah hell, I'm so numb to throwing away 2nd round picks from the Hurney era that 2nd round busts barely even register to me anymore.

[kungfoodude]

Just now, LinvilleGorge said:

Ah hell, I'm so numb to throwing away 2nd round picks from the Hurney era that 2nd round busts barely even register to me anymore.

TBH, we have rarely had 2nd round picks that are as bad as the Clausen's or Jarrett's. We have had less home run picks than we should be it has mostly been solid players.

[ForJimmy]

I think positions probably change the hit %. For example you probably have a higher chance of hitting on a potential LB, RB, or ILB (definitely K/P) in rounds 4-6 than you would a premium position like QB, Edge, LT, CB etc… Teams overreach for higher valued positions and these other positions seem to have higher valued players lower in the draft. I think Mays has a higher chance to stick at OG with us, especially considering our depth there is lacking.

[kungfoodude]

1 minute ago, ForJimmy said:

I think positions probably change the hit %. For example you probably have a higher chance of hitting on a potential LB, RB, or ILB (definitely K/P) in rounds 4-6 than you would a premium position like QB, Edge, LT, CB etc… Teams overreach for higher valued positions and these other positions seem to have higher valued players lower in the draft. I think Mays has a higher chance to stick at OG with us, especially considering our depth there is lacking.

I read an analysis article a couple of seasons ago and they found that after the 3rd or 4th round, the highest success rates were almost always OL. But that is also a position that requires five guys to play, so the numbers are naturally stacked.

[LinvilleGorge]

7 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

TBH, we have rarely had 2nd round picks that are as bad as the Clausen's or Jarrett's. We have had less home run picks than we should be it has mostly been solid players.

Eric Shelton, Amino Silatolu, Greg Little all say "Hi!"

[frankw]

8 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

If he doesn't make any impact this season, he will be one of the bigger busts we have had in recent memory. His wAV/GM is already pretty similar to Dwayne Jarrett. 

 

[kungfoodude]

1 minute ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Eric Shelton, Amino Silatolu, Greg Little all say "Hi!"

Yeah but that is over the span of 27 years. 

Look at our 2nd rounders historically. The hit rates have been pretty damn good. In fact we have had 7 years where our 2nd rounder was significantly better than our 1st rounder.

If you exclude all the years without a 2nd or a 1st, that has happened 7 of 21 times.

[LinvilleGorge]

1 minute ago, kungfoodude said:

Yeah but that is over the span of 27 years. 

Look at our 2nd rounders historically. The hit rates have been pretty damn good. In fact we have had 7 years where our 2nd rounder was significantly better than our 1st rounder.

If you exclude all the years without a 2nd or a 1st, that has happened 7 of 21 times.

I was specifically talking about the Hurney era. 2nd round busts we're very much the norm. Guys like Kalil were very much outliers for Hurney.

 

[kungfoodude]

8 minutes ago, frankw said:

 

[Monrowed]

43 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Here's the way I breakdown draft picks...

Top 10 picks I'm expecting a star. Period.

1st rounders and 2nd rounders I'm looking for an eventual key starter who is going to contribute significantly as a rookie (unless it's a developmental QB pick sitting behind a quality vet).

4th and 5th rounders I expect to make the roster and at least provide serviceable depth for awhile and hopefully develop into more.

6th and 7th rounders are flyers IMO. If you get anything out of them, great. But expectations should be pretty damn low.

 

 

What about third rounders? 

[kungfoodude]

Just now, LinvilleGorge said:

I was specifically talking about the Hurney era. 2nd round busts we're very much the norm. Guys like Kalil were very much outliers for Hurney.

I don't even know that his miss rate was that much higher than our other GM's. I think it was that when he missed, it was literally guys who didn't even belong in the NFL. I can imagine there was a lot of laughing in various draft war rooms at some of those guys getting picked in the 2nd.

[kungfoodude]

1 minute ago, Monrowed said:

What about third rounders? 

We traded them all away for Jimmy G. Forever.

[LinvilleGorge]

10 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

I don't even know that his miss rate was that much higher than our other GM's. I think it was that when he missed, it was literally guys who didn't even belong in the NFL. I can imagine there was a lot of laughing in various draft war rooms at some of those guys getting picked in the 2nd.

I would not be shocked if there were some folks when we drafted Amini that were legit like