Realistic Expectations for 4th-7th Rounders

[kungfoodude]

I figured I would do a little Panthers draft history stroll with some "data" to show how often these guys pan out. Sometimes we need a little enthusiasm check heading into TC season(roughly 2 months away).

A note on methodology. I am using a .25 wAV/GM threshold as being "exceptional."

For the past decade(2011-2021 drafts) here are the exceptional players(so far). Understand that this threshold is and should be lower for picks in this range:

- Chubba Hubbard(4th - 2021)

- Dennis Daley(6th - 2019)

- Harrison Butker(7th - 2017)

- Daryl Williams(4th - 2015)

- Tre Boston(4th - 2014)

- AJ Klein(5th - 2013)

- Josh Norman(5th - 2012)

Note: I well aware that Butker, Daley and Hubbard could very easily fall below this threshold in the coming years.

That is 7 out of 44 picks or roughly 16% success rate. 

Using the same threshold, our historic hit rate is: 

15.4%

So, given that these rates are fairly similar I suspect that is a reasonable expectation of these guys panning out in that range. It also means that you shouldn't expect one of these picks to be a hit every season. 

TLDR

Low hit rate on 4th-7th picks. Don't get overly excited about them.

Edited May 29, 2022 by kungfoodude

[LinvilleGorge]

Here's the way I breakdown draft picks...

Top 10 picks I'm expecting a star. Period.

1st rounders and 2nd rounders I'm looking for an eventual key starter who is going to contribute significantly as a rookie (unless it's a developmental QB pick sitting behind a quality vet).

4th and 5th rounders I expect to make the roster and at least provide serviceable depth for awhile and hopefully develop into more.

6th and 7th rounders are flyers IMO. If you get anything out of them, great. But expectations should be pretty damn low.

 

 

[45catfan]

Mays might develop into a starter, not this year and Smith will hang on as a depth LB and a STs player.  The Baylor kid will hang around on STs or on the PS as long as Rhule is here.

[kungfoodude]

1 minute ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Here's the way I breakdown draft picks...

Top 10 picks I'm expecting a star. Period.

1st rounders and 2nd rounders I'm looking for an eventual key starter who is going to contribute significantly as a rookie (unless it's a developmental QB pick sitting behind a quality vet).

4th and 5th rounders I expect to make the roster and at least provide serviceable depth for awhile and hopefully develop into more.

6th and 7th rounders are flyers IMO. If you get anything out of them, great. But expectations should be pretty damn low.

Agreed. That is about how I slot them.

That was one reason why Marshall was such a head scratcher from last season. Genuinely perplexed by how ineffective he was. That was a guy I was sure was going to be a season one contributor. 

[kungfoodude]

1 minute ago, 45catfan said:

Mays might develop into a starter, not this year and Smith will hang on as a depth LB and a STs player.  The Baylor kid will hang around on STs or on the PS as long as Rhule is here.

May's should stick around but if he doesn't start relatively early(in his career), I wouldn't expect him to be a starting player here. That seems to be the general way that works for most of those guys.

Smith I expect to be gone from the active roster fairly quickly. IMO, he's a guy that is extremely limited, albeit a great athlete. It's hard to justify keeping a guy around with his limitations just because he might be decent in kick coverage. 

[45catfan]

I forgot Barno--See Smith.

[Pejorative Miscreant]

3 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Here's the way I breakdown draft picks...

Top 10 picks I'm expecting a star. Period.

1st rounders and 2nd rounders I'm looking for an eventual key starter who is going to contribute significantly as a rookie (unless it's a developmental QB pick sitting behind a quality vet).

4th and 5th rounders I expect to make the roster and at least provide serviceable depth for awhile and hopefully develop into more.

6th and 7th rounders are flyers IMO. If you get anything out of them, great. But expectations should be pretty damn low.

 

 

I think this is reasonable.  Sometimes hope overrides rational expectations and we as fans want to turn late round picks into something they’re not. 
 

Sometimes coaches put these guys in positions they are not ready for or are in over their heads, which to me is disappointing

[Wundrbread33]

Why do people care so much about the enthusiasm level of others? Why does it need to be checked? 
 

 

[45catfan]

6 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

May's should stick around but if he doesn't start relatively early(in his career), I wouldn't expect him to be a starting player here. That seems to be the general way that works for most of those guys.

Smith I expect to be gone from the active roster fairly quickly. IMO, he's a guy that is extremely limited, albeit a great athlete. It's hard to justify keeping a guy around with his limitations just because he might be decent in kick coverage. 

There's a reason all these great athletes "fell" to us on day 3.  Not all great athletes make great football players.  You have to have drive, competitiveness, football IQ, toughness and dedication to the sport to be great in the NFL, not merely having a near-perfect RAS score.

Edited May 29, 2022 by 45catfan

[LinvilleGorge]

9 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Agreed. That is about how I slot them.

That was one reason why Marshall was such a head scratcher from last season. Genuinely perplexed by how ineffective he was. That was a guy I was sure was going to be a season one contributor. 

It's especially perplexing because of how good he looked in camp and preseason. Honestly, he looked like possibly the best rookie WR in the league in preseason. Then... basically he just disappeared.

 

[LinvilleGorge]

15 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Here's the way I breakdown draft picks...

Top 10 picks I'm expecting a star. Period.

1st rounders and 2nd rounders I'm looking for an eventual key starter who is going to contribute significantly as a rookie (unless it's a developmental QB pick sitting behind a quality vet).

4th and 5th rounders I expect to make the roster and at least provide serviceable depth for awhile and hopefully develop into more.

6th and 7th rounders are flyers IMO. If you get anything out of them, great. But expectations should be pretty damn low.

 

 

I guess according to me 3rd rounders don't exist.

Nah, 3rd rounders I'm hoping for a future starter but expecting at least high quality depth and/or a quality rotational or subpackage player.

[kungfoodude]

9 minutes ago, 45catfan said:

There's a reason all these great athletes "fell" to us on day 3.  Not all great athletes make great football players.  You have to have drive, competitiveness, football IQ, toughness and dedication to the sport to be great in the NFL, not merely having an near-perfect RAS score.

Yeah, once you get to the NFL almost everyone is a great athlete. You need to excel at your craft and continue to get better every day if you are going to make it.

Which, he was also a 4th round pick, so it's hard to get too upset on swinging big at that stage of the draft. If he pans out, maybe that's our 15-16% guy.

Edited May 29, 2022 by kungfoodude

[kungfoodude]

5 minutes ago, Pejorative Miscreant said:

I think this is reasonable.  Sometimes hope overrides rational expectations and we as fans want to turn late round picks into something they’re not. 
 

Sometimes coaches put these guys in positions they are not ready for or are in over their heads, which to me is disappointing

Also sometimes guys that get drafted lower don't get a fair shot because of where they were drafted. Same with UDFA's. If you are about even with a 5th round pick, who do you think the coaches are likely to keep around?

[LinvilleGorge]

Mid to late round picks are where you draft those types of guys. There are no picture perfect prospects left. You looking at good players who lack ideal measurables or you're looking at great athletes who are really raw as football players... or you're looking at off field concerns - character red flags or injury issues.