Probability Analysis of the Burns and DJ decision

[Sir Purr]

NFL teams should just come to the Huddle when they need a new GM. There are so many to choose from here.

[mrcompletely11]

4 minutes ago, Sir Purr said:

NFL teams should just come to the Huddle when they need a new GM. There are so many to choose from here.

Hot take

[Tr3ach]

3 hours ago, Icege said:

My favorite part about this thread is the amount of replies essentially saying, "Your math is right, but I have feelings."

His math is right but incomplete.  Scoring anyone below probowl as a 0 for example, that would score DJ Moore as a 0 as well btw.  Also you have to include a weight for salary.

[Sir Purr]

https://www.dailynorseman.com/2022/4/26/23042105/nfl-draft-pick-bust-rate-remains-very-high

From the article

"But the reality is that most draft picks don’t work out. Whether they’re busts, didn’t live up to their draft position, had injury or off-field issues, didn’t do much to move the dial, or never played much, most draft picks turn out to be some level of disappointment, or don’t make much of a difference in the team’s success."

[mrcompletely11]

3 minutes ago, Sir Purr said:

https://www.dailynorseman.com/2022/4/26/23042105/nfl-draft-pick-bust-rate-remains-very-high

From the article

"But the reality is that most draft picks don’t work out. Whether they’re busts, didn’t live up to their draft position, had injury or off-field issues, didn’t do much to move the dial, or never played much, most draft picks turn out to be some level of disappointment, or don’t make much of a difference in the team’s success."

that is a seriously seriously flawed study, it takes all of the draft picks rounds 1-7 into account in the data and doesnt give round credence at all

[Sir Purr]

3 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

that is a seriously seriously flawed study, it takes all of the draft picks rounds 1-7 into account in the data and doesnt give round credence at all

https://theriotreport.com/more-than-50-of-first-round-picks-are-busts-and-other-terrifying-draft-statistics/2/

[Sir Purr]

https://www.yardbarker.com/nfl/articles/nfl_teams_that_have_made_three_or_more_first_round_picks_in_one_draft/s1__30198380#slide_1

 

"In Jon Gruden's first year back in power in Oakland, the Raiders traded Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper for picks that landed in the 20s. Oakland began by taking Clemson defensive end Clelin Ferrell   at No. 4 overall, which surprised given Ferrell's mid-Round 1 grades. The first leg of the Mack haul turned into Josh Jacobs at No. 24. Jacobs' 1,150 rushing yards (in 13 games) set a Raider rookie record. The Cooper trade brought safety Johnathan Abram at No. 27. Abram starred on "Hard Knocks" but missed 15 games as a rookie. He remains a key part of the franchise's future in Las Vegas."

 

So this is close to what you guys want to do.  Trade Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper for Clelin Ferrell, Josh Jacobs, and Johnatan Abram.  

But tell me again about how valuable those picks are over established players. 

[MasterAwesome]

1 hour ago, Tr3ach said:

His math is right but incomplete.  Scoring anyone below probowl as a 0 for example, that would score DJ Moore as a 0 as well btw.  Also you have to include a weight for salary.

Yeah and imagine if someone did the same analysis but set the bar at "All-Pro" instead of "Pro Bowl" and everyone below "All-Pro" was rated 0.  Then Brian Burns and DJ Moore are both 0s whereas you would have a >0% chance of drafting an All-Pro in the 1st round which would lead to a completely different conclusion.  That's why the methodology is flawed when you're setting your own arbitrary binary standards like "Pro Bowl" or "Pro Bowl caliber" = 1, everything else = 0.

[Jon Snow]

So you're saying we should keep a 3-4 LB because you are afraid you can't do better?

Ridiculous.  This team needs 2 true DE's and a true backup.  Enough of the hybrid bullshit with undersized 3-4 outside LBs.

That's a lame excuse to overpay a player that doesn't fit anywhere just because you are concerned you can't get a better player. 

[mrcompletely11]

3 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

So you're saying we should keep a 3-4 LB because you are afraid you can't do better?

Ridiculous.  This team needs 2 true DE's and a true backup.  Enough of the hybrid bullshit with undersized 3-4 outside LBs.

That's a lame excuse to overpay a player that doesn't fit anywhere just because you are concerned you can't get a better player. 

Its insane

[mrcompletely11]

4 minutes ago, MasterAwesome said:

Yeah and imagine if someone did the same analysis but set the bar at "All-Pro" instead of "Pro Bowl" and everyone below "All-Pro" was rated 0.  Then Brian Burns and DJ Moore are both 0s whereas you would have a >0% chance of drafting an All-Pro in the 1st round which would lead to a completely different conclusion.  That's why the methodology is flawed when you're setting your own arbitrary binary standards like "Pro Bowl" or "Pro Bowl caliber" = 1, everything else = 0.

there is no true way to accurately grade these types of things, its almost completely arbitrary with a lot of moving parts and factors. 

[mrcompletely11]

9 minutes ago, Sir Purr said:

https://www.yardbarker.com/nfl/articles/nfl_teams_that_have_made_three_or_more_first_round_picks_in_one_draft/s1__30198380#slide_1

 

"In Jon Gruden's first year back in power in Oakland, the Raiders traded Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper for picks that landed in the 20s. Oakland began by taking Clemson defensive end Clelin Ferrell   at No. 4 overall, which surprised given Ferrell's mid-Round 1 grades. The first leg of the Mack haul turned into Josh Jacobs at No. 24. Jacobs' 1,150 rushing yards (in 13 games) set a Raider rookie record. The Cooper trade brought safety Johnathan Abram at No. 27. Abram starred on "Hard Knocks" but missed 15 games as a rookie. He remains a key part of the franchise's future in Las Vegas."

 

So this is close to what you guys want to do.  Trade Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper for Clelin Ferrell, Josh Jacobs, and Johnatan Abram.  

But tell me again about how valuable those picks are over established players. 

https://espnswfl.com/listicle/the-dolphins-basically-turned-the-trey-lance-picks-into-tyreek-hill-jaylen-waddle-and-bradley-chubb/

 

it cuts both ways, and again you are way overvaluing Brian Burns

[Sir Purr]

https://www.panthers.com/team/players-roster/brian-burns/

• His 25.5 sacks are the most by all players that entered the league since 2019, while his 26 tackles for loss are tied for fourth among those players.

[MasterAwesome]

3 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

there is no true way to accurately grade these types of things, its almost completely arbitrary with a lot of moving parts and factors. 

Yeah I know, that's more for the "can't argue with the data!" people.  Your data is only as good as your methodology.