Jump to content
  • Welcome!

    Register and log in easily with Twitter or Google accounts!

    Or simply create a new Huddle account. 

    Members receive fewer ads , access our dark theme, and the ability to join the discussion!

     

Albert Breer: Panthers could "hold auction" for #33 pick


TheSpecialJuan
 Share

Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, Tbe said:


Here are some numbers I found. Posted this a few months back.

2nd round - about 33% of players drafted in the 2nd round developed into a solid NFL starter. It’s higher for the top of the round. From here, it dropped by 50% per round.

3rd round - about 16%.

4th round - about 8%.

If you do the math, selecting two 3rd rounders gives you a 29.44% chance of gaining ONE long term starter.

Thats less than the odds for a single high 2nd.

 

Yeah and it will vary by the talent pool each year. If it is a stacked year those percentages would be a little different. 

For me it would largely depend on who I was passing over if I traded. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think it really depends on the players available. If there is a team willing to give up a warchest to grab let's say Penix of course you consider it. But if a stud WR is there at 33 that would be hard to turn down 

I like to what Gantt posted this week about how historically the compensation for 33 is basically an extra fourth. IMO that isn't worth it if a guy is there you know won't be at 39

  • Pie 1
  • Beer 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, jasonluckydog said:

If you can't get an extra 2nd or early 3rd its not worth it.  4th through 7th historically has the smallest chance of sticking around. Undrafted FA tend to do better. 

If we could trade down to 35/36 and pick up an extra high draft choice in the 3rd round I “might” consider a move down. But as someone pointed out earlier, we are more likely to find a starter the higher they are selected in the draft.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share


  • PMH4OWPW7JD2TDGWZKTOYL2T3E.jpg

  • Topics

  • Posts

    • With Freddie Slavin and Svech both playing at MVP levels, no one can touch us. Burns playing well.  Imagine if Jarvy and Aho get going…
    • Just because all draft picks are a gamble doesn't mean you don't have a better chance at hitting on a better player the higher you're drafting. It would literally be like someone saying, I'll give you 1 or 2 free spins on a slot machine, and you say you'll take the 1 because you're not likely to win anything anyways with 1 or 2, so why bother? The Cowboys desperately wanted T-Mac, but because they were 4 picks behind us, they weren't able to get him.  If you told Cowboys fans that had they lost 2 more games last year in a lost season, that it would get them the player they wanted so badly, would they in retrospect go back and lose those games to get their guy? 95% of them would take that trade off in a heartbeat, and the others who wouldn't are the fans who would rather enjoy an extra win or two in a poo season to then set themselves up to be better for the next decade. I also think the fans who argue against this thinking, get too caught up in the "well that means you're going to be rooting against us late in the season even if we still have a shot at the playoffs." Which isn't true, it's saying if you're telling me right now we'd make the playoffs but lose in the first round, that I'd rather end up 8-9 or 9-8 and just miss the playoffs because in our opinion, the benefits that come along with that outweigh the benefit of the players getting 1 game of playoff experience.
    • In relation to tanking. I think you can count on one hand the number of people here who actually want us to lose football games. When accounting for it across the fanbase it amounts to maybe 2% of the entire Panthers fanbase. But you engage with some internet trolls and think haters are coming out of the woodwork and hey look at that it's all a conspiracy that leads to Bryce Young haters. Do you hear yourself sir? If it sounds ridiculous that's because it is. I mean at this point do you see Bryce haters in your dreams? As far as the culture of this franchise goes we seem to be doing better in that department via what we are building right now and with the people we have in place. But we also shouldn't just make assumptions just yet either. The rubber still needs to meet the road. And going back to previous seasons I think we can acknowledge although tanking obviously isn't a thing there were some times where we thought our culture was improving but really it wasn't. Yes I'm looking directly at some of those wins under Wilks. If the culture had truly changed we would not have lost to the Steelers who have been mediocre for years at home the way we did and they were starting Mitch Trubisky ffs. We did not change our culture for the better and we won games that ultimately meant nothing. It was just a brief mirage. We've done this for years now. The harsh truth of the matter is the Panthers have not had a winning season or been to the playoffs in going on 8 years but in those years they've been trying to convince themselves they aren't poo but in the process all they've done throughout most of that time period is squander better draft position and we were still the worst team in the league for our troubles. At the end of the day we should be able to just be adults and reconcile with that. And no that isn't being "pro tank" or any other boogeyman term it's simply recognizing reality.
×
×
  • Create New...