Panthers decision to pass on Walker

[ForJimmy]

2 minutes ago, carpanfan96 said:

His overall grade with PFF was 84.8 and I know his zone open rate was 94%. You tell me what knocked his overall score down if his man score was 89 and his zone score was higher.... 

 

 

But I'll answer and I don't know where yahoo got that number as he had a 62% against single coverage and it wasn't no where close to 89%> 

"Over the past two years, McMillan was 74th-percentile in separation percentile, per PFF. This is where things get interesting. Against zone coverage, McMillan was charted as open on a ludicrous 94.3% of his targets. 

 

Against man, that plummeted all the way to 53.6%. McMillan finished in the 39th-percentile in separation percentage in single-coverage man."

 

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-tetairoa-mcmillan-wr1-2025-nfl-draft

 

https://www.fantasylife.com/articles/nfl-draft/2025-nfl-draft-wide-receiver-rankings-tetairoa-mcmillan-matthew-golden-and-more#:~:text=Over the past two years,rate against single-man coverage.

 

One is looking at his overall grade and one is looking at separation. 

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2025-nfl-draft-highest-graded-fbs-receivers-coverage-scheme#:~:text=5.,missed tackles against man coverage.

Has him at 89.1 again.
McMillan led the draft class with 34 catches for 508 yards against single coverage in 2024, and Missouri‘s Luther Burden III was the only other FBS receiver in this draft cycle to force double-digit missed tackles against man coverage. McMillan gained 211 yards after the catch (second most), caught three touchdown passes and gained 24 first downs. He secured nine contested targets and recorded 12 explosive gains.

[carpanfan96]

16 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

One is looking at his overall grade and one is looking at separation. 

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2025-nfl-draft-highest-graded-fbs-receivers-coverage-scheme#:~:text=5.,missed tackles against man coverage.

 

Has him at 89.1 again.
McMillan led the draft class with 34 catches for 508 yards against single coverage in 2024, and Missouri‘s Luther Burden III was the only other FBS receiver in this draft cycle to force double-digit missed tackles against man coverage. McMillan gained 211 yards after the catch (second most), caught three touchdown passes and gained 24 first downs. He secured nine contested targets and recorded 12 explosive gains.

 

 

This quote is from PFF article I linked. 

 

For as much flak as he receives for not being a top-tier separator and release artist at the line of scrimmage, his 53.6% separation percentage against single coverage over the past two years was still a 39th-percentile mark.

 

He doesn't get open against man and that doesn't translate to the NFL at all. 

 

That's my whole point and why I didn't like the pick. He can't get open against man and he's even worse against press. 

Edited 2 hours ago by carpanfan96

[jfra78]

1 hour ago, tukafan21 said:

I never said he was perfect, but his floor is still as a low end #1, I honestly think his floor in this league is around the 25th best WR in the league, and that's if he doesn't improve on anything but just continues to be the player he is right now.  

So I really hope you just mean XL's ceiling is higher than T-Mac's floor since I was saying it wasn't.

Because there literally just isn't any world where XL's ceiling is higher than T-Mac's ceiling, it would be one of the more asinine statements to say XL's was higher.

I guess you don't understand ceiling and floor.  Tet is coming into the league better than XL so his floor is higher.  XL is faster stronger and bigger than tet can ever be with his body composition.  Meaning XL would be better if everything clicks, so his ceiling is higher.  Plain and simple

[jfra78]

49 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

Come on guys… TMac has the higher floor and ceiling. It’s why one was a top 10 pick and the other barely made it in the first round. XL is still huge and explosive and probably plays better at the Z. 

There's no way you should want tet playing on the line of scrimmage, he will get manhandled

[tukafan21]

1 minute ago, jfra78 said:

I guess you don't understand ceiling and floor.  Tet is coming into the league better than XL so his floor is higher.  XL is faster stronger and bigger than tet can ever be with his body composition.  Meaning XL would be better if everything clicks, so his ceiling is higher.  Plain and simple

LOL, being faster and stronger doesn't mean he will be a better player "if everything clicks" (and you say bigger, but that's just in bulk, which is strength said another way, he measured 6'1" at the combine vs 6'4 1/8" for T-Mac)

It's just a beyond absurdly simplistic view of things.  

To begin with, no matter how much things click for XL, he will never have the catch radius that T-Mac has and he will never have the hands that T-Mac has.  Period.  That alone will always have him as a better red zone threat than XL could ever be, I don't care how much he improves, T-Mac will always be Bryce's top option there.

He also will likely never have the innate WR ability that T-Mac has, which is something that you can't put a statistic or clear cut attribute to, but you don't play 5 years in college and a rookie season still looking this raw and then develop that type of feel for the game, even if you improve your issues.  It's a reason T-Mac and Bryce actually made a good pairing, because they're going to be able to share a mind out there at times, it's what made T-Mac and Fifita so dangerous together too.  T-Mac came into college with an advanced feel for the game and position, something he keeps getting better at and XL still doesn't show.

It's like you're then saying T-Mac has no ability to improve on his weaknesses, as you can't say he's better than XL right now, but if things click for XL, T-Mac can't stay better by also getting better himself.  

T-Mac's ceiling is as a Top 5 WR, XL is never going to be that, and I say that as a fan of his.  His ceiling is as a Top 20, borderline Top 15 type of guy, and there isn't anything wrong with that.

[ForJimmy]

18 minutes ago, jfra78 said:

I guess you don't understand ceiling and floor.  Tet is coming into the league better than XL so his floor is higher.  XL is faster stronger and bigger than tet can ever be with his body composition.  Meaning XL would be better if everything clicks, so his ceiling is higher.  Plain and simple

TMac has about 3 inches on XL. XL is only 6’1” despite being listed as 6’3” a lot. Combine has XL at 6’1” 221 pounds. TMac came in at over 6’4” and 219 pounds. I know XL is built thicker but we are talking about WRs. JJ isn’t super jacked, Randy Moss was pretty thin. If everything clicks with TMac his ceiling is impossible to cover with his size. TMac is also a little over 2 years younger. I don’t think it’s a plain and simple edge to XL in ceiling. 

[jfra78]

2 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

LOL, being faster and stronger doesn't mean he will be a better player "if everything clicks" (and you say bigger, but that's just in bulk, which is strength said another way, he measured 6'1" at the combine vs 6'4 1/8" for T-Mac)

It's just a beyond absurdly simplistic view of things.  

To begin with, no matter how much things click for XL, he will never have the catch radius that T-Mac has and he will never have the hands that T-Mac has.  Period.  That alone will always have him as a better red zone threat than XL could ever be, I don't care how much he improves, T-Mac will always be Bryce's top option there.

He also will likely never have the innate WR ability that T-Mac has, which is something that you can't put a statistic or clear cut attribute to, but you don't play 5 years in college and a rookie season still looking this raw and then develop that type of feel for the game, even if you improve your issues.  It's a reason T-Mac and Bryce actually made a good pairing, because they're going to be able to share a mind out there at times, it's what made T-Mac and Fifita so dangerous together too.  T-Mac came into college with an advanced feel for the game and position, something he keeps getting better at and XL still doesn't show.

It's like you're then saying T-Mac has no ability to improve on his weaknesses, as you can't say he's better than XL right now, but if things click for XL, T-Mac can't stay better by also getting better himself.  

T-Mac's ceiling is as a Top 5 WR, XL is never going to be that, and I say that as a fan of his.  His ceiling is as a Top 20, borderline Top 15 type of guy, and there isn't anything wrong with that.

You see things with rose colored glasses. 

[jfra78]

2 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

TMac has about 3 inches on XL. XL is only 6’1” despite being listed as 6’3” a lot. Combine has XL at 6’1” 221 pounds. TMac came in at over 6’4” and 219 pounds. I know XL is built thicker but we are talking about WRs. JJ isn’t super jacked, Randy Moss was pretty thin. If everything clicks with TMac his ceiling is impossible to cover with his size. TMac is also a little over 2 years younger. I don’t think it’s a plain and simple edge to XL in ceiling. 

XL played better last year than given credit for.  Other than drops, he played well, got open and got position over CBs the majority of the time.  He was thrown some pretty shitty balls too. Tet will get manhandled playing on the line of scrimmage and will have to play Z.I never said Tet is a bad reciever, just not what you guys think he is. 

[tukafan21]

8 minutes ago, jfra78 said:

XL played better last year than given credit for.  Other than drops, he played well, got open and got position over CBs the majority of the time.  He was thrown some pretty shitty balls too. Tet will get manhandled playing on the line of scrimmage and will have to play Z.I never said Tet is a bad reciever, just not what you guys think he is. 

If you legitimately think XL has a higher ceiling than T-Mac, then you're out of your mind delusional.

Sorry, but that's just nonsense.

[tukafan21]

17 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

TMac has about 3 inches on XL. XL is only 6’1” despite being listed as 6’3” a lot. Combine has XL at 6’1” 221 pounds. TMac came in at over 6’4” and 219 pounds. I know XL is built thicker but we are talking about WRs. JJ isn’t super jacked, Randy Moss was pretty thin. If everything clicks with TMac his ceiling is impossible to cover with his size. TMac is also a little over 2 years younger. I don’t think it’s a plain and simple edge to XL in ceiling. 

It's literally plain and simple that T-Mac has a higher ceiling, nobody who knows anything about football and has a sane mind would say otherwise.

[kungfoodude]

1 hour ago, ForJimmy said:

Come on guys… TMac has the higher floor and ceiling. It’s why one was a top 10 pick and the other barely made it in the first round. XL is still huge and explosive and probably plays better at the Z. 

Yeah, this is a completely goofy argument. 

XL was basically a 2nd rounder for a reason. 

[carpanfan96]

43 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

It's literally plain and simple that T-Mac has a higher ceiling, nobody who knows anything about football and has a sane mind would say otherwise.

Yea, that's too much. T-Mac has a higher floor and ceiling just because of his catch radius alone. Not counting anything else he can do, just that by itself gives him a higher ceiling and floor than XL. His worst case scenario is a zone merchant and jump ball guy. 

[kungfoodude]

3 minutes ago, carpanfan96 said:

Yea, that's too much. T-Mac has a higher floor and ceiling just because of his catch radius alone. Not counting anything else he can do, just that by itself gives him a higher ceiling and floor than XL. His worst case scenario is a zone merchant and jump ball guy. 

I mean, fug the catch radius, he actually has high caliber hands and has been consistently productive in his career.

For those reasons alone, I have no idea why this is even a real argument. 

Certainly XL could really improve or Tmac be a bust but I think those are unlikely things to BOTH happen.

[carpanfan96]

5 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

I mean, fug the catch radius, he actually has high caliber hands and has been consistently productive in his career.

For those reasons alone, I have no idea why this is even a real argument. 

Certainly XL could really improve or Tmac be a bust but I think those are unlikely things to BOTH happen.

I was only saying that if you take everything else away from T-Mac, that just his catch radius alone gives him the higher floor and ceiling. Add in everything else and it's clear cut to anyone with working eyes. 

 

Reason I'm interested in practice is if the Panthers are smart, in TC they have horn follow him around the field and press man him every down. It's going to be one of the best presses he will see all year and should help him a ton. 

Edited 1 hour ago by carpanfan96