Bills predictions

[GoobyPls]

Bryce has been really good at avoiding sacks and in the redzone this season. I think Andy is like Flacco, he’s plays with no conscious he will more than likely throw 50/50 balls, if we can protect Andy and the running game gets going I think we can win this one. But if Andy from the Commanders game shows up we are gonna get blown out.

[NAS]

6 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

And actually control the ball. The path to success seems fairly clear. Heavy dose of Rico early and often. If that is cooking, pass action passing off of that. 

Yes, establish the run and give Dalton  a clean pocket to hit a few good play action passes.  Defense will stop the run but we can’t afford to get picked apart like against the Cowboys 

[kungfoodude]

8 minutes ago, GoobyPls said:

Bryce has been really good at avoiding sacks and in the redzone this season. I think Andy is like Flacco, he’s plays with no conscious he will more than likely throw 50/50 balls, if we can protect Andy and the running game gets going I think we can win this one. But if Andy from the Commanders game shows up we are gonna get blown out.

Do you have data on the sacks in the redzone?

 

I know that Bryce's sack% has gone down each year(10.53, 7.02, 4.68). 

Dalton to compare: 4.92, 4.19, 7.14

[GoobyPls]

41 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Do you have data on the sacks in the redzone?

 

I know that Bryce's sack% has gone down each year(10.53, 7.02, 4.68). 

Dalton to compare: 4.92, 4.19, 7.14

Here the sack avoidance chart

 

https://x.com/PattonAnalytics/status/1981070753442517206

 

Carolina has an 86% RZ TD rate; 6th best in the league. I can’t find the chart for that one. But yeah once we get in the redzone we usually score it’s getting there that’s the problem.

[kungfoodude]

2 minutes ago, GoobyPls said:

Here the sack avoidance chart

 

https://x.com/PattonAnalytics/status/1981070753442517206

 

Carolina has an 86% RZ TD rate; 6th best in the league. I can’t find the chart for that one. But yeah once we get in the redzone we usually score it’s getting there that’s the problem.

That's Expected Points Added after avoiding a sack. That has zero relationship to anything regarding the Red Zone on the surface.

"Good at avoiding sacks" isn't necessarily tied to that directly. Sack% is a little better metric for that, I would think.

I did misinterpret your original post as "good at avoiding sacks IN THE REDZONE." I see you were making two claims. 

[Jackie Lee]

 

[kungfoodude]

Just now, Jackie Lee said:

 

That seals the deal that Bryce is out.

Also means the White stans will weep bitterly. 

[strato]

1 hour ago, NAS said:

I agree I would pick us to lose regardless of QB situation. However if our defense can magically find a consistent pass rush to keep Allen from picking us apart we may have a chance. 

Yeah. It isn’t a lock. IMO. One can’t say how these things will go with a lot of certainty. 

In general feels, we are due to stub our toe at home and they aren’t likely to lose three straight. How it gets there hard to say. 

If Dalton's arm isn’t washed and the OL protects and the PA can work because we are running the ball we can play with them. 
It will be hard. The QB is a stud and they have a strong running game. They can exploit us in the middle of the field. 

It almost always comes down to the players and we have shown a lot of growth but this is a bigger test than we have seen this year. 

They have the experience advantage over us big time. Staff too. 

[Jackie Lee]

21 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

That seals the deal that Bryce is out.

Also means the White stans will weep bitterly. 

Well it doesn’t necessarily mean that playing Hooker over White is the right call, although I do think if you get the chance you wanna see how Hooker looks in a real NFL game. I like White as a backup qb but we already know what that looks like

[kungfoodude]

1 minute ago, Jackie Lee said:

Well it doesn’t necessarily mean that playing Hooker over White is the right call, although I do think if you get the chance you wanna see how Hooker looks in a real NFL game. I like White as a backup qb but we already know what that looks like

I can tell you after seeing Hendon Hooker live in an NFL preseason game, I never want to see him live in a Panthers game. Jack Plummer clone, although arguably worse.

[amcoolio]

Bills rule out starting DT Jones and S Rapp, and both starting linebackers didn't practice all week and are questionable. Kincaid also didn't practice all week. The Panthers should compete, they should be able to run the ball down the Bills throats.

[kungfoodude]

1 minute ago, amcoolio said:

Bills rule out starting DT Jones and S Rapp, and both starting linebackers didn't practice all week and are questionable. Kincaid also didn't practice all week. The Panthers should compete, they should be able to run the ball down the Bills throats.

Can't wait for this 40+ pass attempt game plan!

[amcoolio]

Just now, kungfoodude said:

Can't wait for this 40+ pass attempt game plan!

As long as Andy throws for 300 yards, its okay if the Panthers lose 42-24, am i rite

[Jackie Lee]

41 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

I can tell you after seeing Hendon Hooker live in an NFL preseason game, I never want to see him live in a Panthers game. Jack Plummer clone, although arguably worse.

Yeah I saw the same and outside of mop up duty in a blowout game I agree. If you actually were interested in best chance to win you’d have White backing up Dalton but maybe he’s not deep enough into the playbook yet